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历史数据表明:美股熊市距离触底还有很远

Historical data show that the US stock bear market is still a long way from bottoming out.

Zhitong Finance ·  Oct 17, 2022 23:36

Data compiled by the media show that in many bear markets of the last century, the s & p 500 fell by an average of about 38% in 15 to 16 months before hitting bottom.

Historical data suggest that the bear market in the US stock market may be far from over. Zhitong financial APP has learned that the s & p 500 has fallen 25% in more than nine months since its peak in January, smaller and shorter than the average market decline in a similar situation in the last century. Data compiled by the media show that in many bear markets of the last century, the s & p 500 fell by an average of about 38% in 15 to 16 months before hitting bottom.

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With inflation and interest rates still rising, many economies are facing recession and many factors, such as supply chains and pressure on corporate profit margins, have made investors pessimistic about the stock market. However, Michael J. Wilson, an analyst who has long been bearish on the US stock market, said that in the absence of a decline in earnings or official data showing a recession, the time is ripe for a short-term rebound in the US stock market.

The s & p 500 has fallen 25% this year and is testing the "important support bottom" of its 200-week moving average, which could trigger a technical rebound, Wilson wrote in a report on Monday. Wilson, one of Wall Street's most famous bears, said he "did not rule out" that the S & P; would rise to about 4150, meaning a 16 per cent rise from its recent close. He said that while this looks like a very large volatility, it will be in line with this year's and previous bear market rallies, and he still maintains a long-term overall negative position on the stock market.

Core CPI in the US rose to a 40-year high in September, cementing the Fed's bet on another big rate hike in November, but Mr Wilson said he thought inflation had now peaked and "could fall back quickly next year". However, the strategist also said he expected "profits to slow significantly" over the next 12 months.

The Wilson also warned that while it usually takes a "full-blown recession" for the S & P to fall below its 200-week moving average, if the index fails to hold that level this time, the rally may not be achieved at all. Instead, the index could fall to 3400 or less, at least 5 per cent below Friday's closing price, he said. He predicts that the bear market will eventually hit bottom around 3000-3200.

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