The company plans to accelerate the expansion of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane and all kinds of electronic grade silane, maintain the "buy" rating on October 14, the company announced plans to invest 5.2 billion yuan in Ruichang City to build a "green new material recycling industry project", plus code layout of photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, electronic grade silane and other high value-added products, the future growth space is broad.
We maintain the profit forecast and estimate that the net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 5.21,8.27,1.169 billion yuan, and the EPS will be 1.19,1.90,2.68 yuan per share, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 15.1, 9.5 and 6.7 times of PE in 2022-2024. In the future, the intensive production of polysilicon projects under construction may help trichlorosilicon to maintain its high bearing. We are optimistic about the company's differential production expansion in photovoltaic, electronics and other high-quality races, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Electronic grade silane is widely used in the semiconductor industry, and the company is expected to accelerate its entry into the electronic race. According to the company's announcement, about 26 new green material production lines to be built in Ruichang are mainly planned to produce new silicon-based materials with high added value, such as photovoltaic grade trichlorosilicon, high purity silicon tetrachloride and electronic grade high purity alkoxy silane.
Electronic grade alkoxysilane can be used in the field of semiconductors, including electronic grade tetraethoxysilane (tetraethoxysilane) and electronic grade tetramethoxysilane (methyl orthosilicate). It is mainly used in CVD (chemical vapor deposition) process in IC wafer process to form a thin film on the surface of semiconductor devices. Electronic grade alkoxysilane requires high purity. The purity of electronic grade tetraethoxysilane usually needs to be more than 8N and each impurity should be less than 1 ppb. The production barrier is high. High purity silicon tetrachloride can be used in OVD/VAD optical fiber preform process, and electronic grade products can also be used in semiconductor film deposition. Electronic grade silicon tetrachloride requires high purity. At present, China basically depends on imports. The application field of the company's products is expected to continue to be rich in the future.
The company's second set of 50,000 tons of trichlorosilane and supporting projects are progressing smoothly, and the product structure continues to upgrade according to the company's customs activity record table, the company's second set of 50,000 tons of trichlorosilicon (including photovoltaic grade) device is being debugged and photovoltaic grade trichlorosilane is under customer verification; according to the company's half-yearly report, the supporting 9000 tons of aminosilane and 30,000t special silane project is expected to be put into trial production in 2022Q4; aerogel project is in rapid progress. The continuous launch of the company's production capacity under construction will promote the continuous enrichment of the application field of the company's products and the continuous upgrading of the product structure.
Risk tips: capacity release is not as expected, product prices have fallen sharply, and downstream demand is flagging.