[matters]
Recently, Wachovia released a forecast of results for the first three quarters of 2022, showing that the company's net profit in the first three quarters is expected to be 2.3-270 million yuan, compared with 16 million yuan in the same period in 2021. The net profit in the first three quarters is expected to be 2.23-263 million yuan, and 11 million yuan in the same period in 2021.
[comments]
The quarter-on-quarter performance has declined from the previous quarter, and the historical performance has improved significantly over the same period. According to the performance range, the company's net profit in the third quarter is 0.37-77 million yuan, with a median of 57 million yuan, which is significantly lower than that in the first and second quarters. However, historically, the company's single-quarter net profit in the third quarter from 2016 to 2021 is between-0.07 and 30 million yuan, and the company's current profit level is significantly higher than the best level in the same period in history. The reason for the company's profit decline in the third quarter may be due to the macroeconomic downturn at home and abroad and the seasonal off-season sales of cyanuric chloride industry.
The company's sodium cathode material multi-line layout, Prussian blue (white) compound advantage is more obvious. The planned Prussian blue (white) production capacity of 180000 tons planned by the company and colorful Chemical Co., Ltd. is planned to build 10,000 tons in the first phase, which is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2023; the second phase is proposed to build 50,000 tons; and the third phase is proposed to build 120000 tons.
At the same time, the company's existing 50-ton pilot production line of Prussian blue cathode material has been put into production, and has passed the test of some battery manufacturers. The advantages of Wachovia new materials in Prussian blue (white) materials mainly include: 1) the production capacity, cost and technical advantages of 300000 tons of liquid sodium cyanide; 2) synergistic advantages with colorful chemical Prussian blue synthesis technology. At the same time, the company also has a layout in the direction of layered oxides and polyanions. Among them, part of the production capacity of Warner's new layered oxide cathode materials is under construction, and the company's shareholding company Meinan New Materials focuses on the research and development of polyanionic materials.
The company's wet diaphragm capacity may be released centrally in 2023. At present, the company has achieved full-load production and batch supply with a total capacity of 150 million square meters of wet diaphragm. The wet diaphragm production line with a total of 150 million square meters has also begun trial production and is expected to be fully put into production in October. In 2023, the company plans to add about 400 million square meters of wet diaphragm production capacity. In terms of customers, the company has delivered in bulk to Baolixin and some dealers, passed the product certification of battery manufacturer Anchi New Energy and completed the delivery of pilot orders, and more than 20 battery manufacturers are in the process of sample certification. In terms of diaphragm product shipments, the company's diaphragm products are mainly sample delivery and product certification in the first half of 2022, so mass sales have not yet been formed. In the follow-up, the company's diaphragm capacity is expected to be released quickly in the second half of this year and next year. The company's current shipping target of diaphragm products is 50 million square meters in 2022 and 400 million square meters in 2023.
[investment advice]
According to the production of the company's wet diaphragm products and the planning of sodium cathode materials, we estimate that the company's operating income in 2022, 2023, and 2024 will be 23.78, 31.31 / 4.323 billion, respectively; the estimated return net profit will be 3.59, 4.86 and 711 million yuan, respectively, and the EPS will be 0.69, 0.93; 1.36, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 29-21-15 times, respectively, and will be rated as "overweight".
[risk Tip]
The shipment of wet diaphragm products is not as expected.
Sales of Prussian blue cathode materials fell short of expectations.
The prices of fine chemical products such as cyanuric chloride have fallen sharply.