The short-term attention to the growth rate of the report has become a new focus of the reporter. The bank believes that the social nature of short-term e-commerce (such as Douyin e-commerce) combined with short-term TV platforms will be irresistible to each other in the future. Therefore, at present, judging from the popularity of the mutual marketing industry, the space for the ecological development of Douyin e-commerce is still very tight. As one of the earliest effect service providers on Wechat and Douyin platforms, it has formed a unique business wall in algorithm technology and data base, and is expected to continue to enjoy the high growth and profit of short-term TV e-commerce.
Overseas e-commerce business is growing rapidly.
Based on the painstaking algorithmic technologies and models in the business of mutual and digital products, since 2018, the company has launched a consumer product campaign for consumer accessories of well-known 3C (electrical, communication and consumer electronics) brands on Douyin through satisfactory results (see 80 years old). At present, the consumer products mainly include consumer electronics products and daily chemical and beauty products. Guotai Junan predicts that the GMV of the company's domestic e-commerce products will decline by 32.1% year-on-year in 2022, but under the relative control of the epidemic, the company's domestic e-commerce product transaction GMV will resume growth in 2023, achieving an annual growth rate of 45%. The market for mobile new media effects in China is in a strong upward channel, and the company is the largest mobile new media effects service provider in 2021, and it is expected that the company's GMV will maintain an annual growth rate of 20% in 2024. In addition, the revenue and cost of mutual financing can be controlled by the company in a relatively stable state. The swap gross profit margin rose from 30.1% in the first half of 2021 to 32.4% in the first half of 2022. In the future, the bank expects the gross profit margins of the company's domestic e-commerce transactions (including mutual products) to be 47%, 48% and 50% respectively from 2022 to 2024.
GMV, which enjoys overseas e-commerce services, increased from 1.20 billion yuan in the fourth quarter of 2021 to 1.02 billion yuan in the first half of 2022 within six months, and rapidly expanded its service to many countries in India, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand. As the company's overseas e-commerce business has not been affected by the outbreak of the epidemic, it is expected that it will maintain rapid growth in the rest of 2022, and its GMV for the whole of 2022 may reach 2.842 billion yuan. Guotai Junan predicts that the company's overseas e-commerce GMV will achieve annual growth of 35% and 25% respectively from 2023 to 2024. Due to the rapid expansion of overseas e-commerce services, the expected overall gross profit margin will drop sharply in 2022, but will gradually improve from 2023. The selling cost of overseas e-commerce merchandise sales service mainly includes the cost of merchandise purchase and the related usage of the payment to the third-party marketing platform for performance evaluation.
E-commerce platform service is mature
At the same time, the company also needs to be responsible for the related use of e-commerce platform equipment, logistics system, online payment channels, etc., so the overall gross profit margin is relatively low in the early stage, but due to the maturity of the business, and the improvement of the upper and lower reaches of the regulatory economy, the expected gross profit margin will gradually increase after 2023. From 2022 to 2024, the company's overseas e-commerce profit margins are 7%, 8.5% and 9.5%, respectively, while the overall gross profit margins are 13.8%, 13.9% and 14.1%, respectively.
The growth of future enjoyment lies in three areas. First, it is expected to maintain rapid growth by continuing to cultivate medium-and long-tail products in short-term e-commerce companies; second, the layout of overseas e-commerce has begun to yield results; and third, with the maturity of overseas e-commerce, gross profit margin will rise further after 2023. According to the segment sum valuation method and reference to the valuation of comparable companies, the first target is 2.73 yuan, as well as the investment level of "investment".