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中国食品(00506.HK):可受惠國內人均飲料消費水平及飲料市場容量的廣闊提升空間 重申「買入」

Chinese Food (00506.HK): Expanded room to increase the level of beverage consumption per capita and beverage market capacity in beneficiary countries reaffirms “buying”

國泰君安國際 ·  Sep 24, 2022 00:00  · Researches

China's food industry has the right to buy a series of Coca-Cola products in the administrative regions of 19 provinces and levels in China, including products of 11 categories and 24 brands, including soft drinks, fruit juices, packaged water, energy ingredients, instant tea and coffee. The company's sales scope covers 100% of the cities and cities in the region, as well as more than 60% of the total, with controllable operations accounting for 90% of the total. As one of the largest bottle manufacturers of Coca-Cola products in the mainland, the company has a realistic production capacity layout and distribution network, and will fully benefit from the success of the domestic materials industry.

The "rise and fall" increased.

In an unfavorable environment, China's food harvest continued to show adverse growth in the first half of the year. Among them, the annual sales volume decreased by 4%, while the average sales list increased by 10%, mainly due to the upgrading of production, integration and packaging structure. As a result, total income increased by 6% year-on-year to 11.894 billion yuan (people's income, the same below). Due to the high price of major raw materials and packages, the gross profit margin decreased by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year to 36.2%.

The company's continued promotion and efficiency measures, as well as the corresponding reduction in reporting and promoting expenditure, have reduced the sales rate by 3.9 percentage points to 27.6% year-on-year. After the first half of the year, interest before interest and dividend increased by 20.6% and 19% year-on-year, respectively, to 11.26 million yuan and 481 million yuan.

In terms of product categories, soda sales increased by 49% to 9.035 billion yuan in the first half of the year, and the market share remained more than 50%. The promotion of small packages can be turned into big buyers, "sugar-free" and "sugar-free" series of health growth, as well as the successful launch of new products, such as "Xinghe Walk" and so on. Fruit juice sales increased by 21% year-on-year to 1.656 billion yuan, reflecting a better-than-expected rebound in domestic demand for traditional fruit juices and "Mei Juice Source" sparkling juice products. The sales of packaged water fell by 10.3% to 749 million yuan, as the market share fell further because it was still in the painful stage of structural upgrading. In other words, the year-on-year increase in the number of figures recorded in coffee is higher than the industry average. "COSTA" maintains its second-largest brand status in major markets, while tea tea has recorded a more than double increase, reflecting the innovation of its products and the effectiveness of its marketing methods.

Exceed the expected peak season volume

Guotai Junan believes that under the guidance of the company's management, the number of units in revenue for the whole of this year is expected to increase. Within the company's operating area, the customer's acceptance of its main products exceeds the market expectation. In addition, the channel profit distribution mechanism is more solid, and the company's marketing and action management is expected to be fully capable. The catalysis includes the peak season volume under favorable weather conditions or exceeding expectations, as well as the precision of domestic epidemic prevention and control.

In terms of earnings, due to cost inflation, the bank's projected gross profit margin is expected to rise from the fourth quarter of 2022 to 2023, with earnings per share expected to reach 0.239 yuan, 0.26 yuan and 0.289 yuan per share from 2022 to 2024, respectively. Investors are advised to pay attention to short-term consumer spending and domestic demand. In the medium term, we might as well be optimistic about the "scissors margin" and profitability of "unit cost of sales", as well as the long-term performance of the company in terms of brand value, product innovation and governance performance. Combined with the valuation level and dividend return rate attracted by China Foods in the past, the Bank reiterated the investment level of "income".

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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