Core viewpoints
To create a chain and two-wing pattern, with thionyl chloride as the main chain, the cost advantage casts the company's performance pressure stone. Raw material cost: on the one hand, it benefits from the leading production technology. Thionyl chloride is produced with liquid chlorine and sulfur as the core raw materials, in which the sulfur consumption of the company is the smallest and the unit consumption level is the leading in the industry. On the other hand, the by-product SO2 in all product lines can be recycled in a high proportion (the overall recycling ratio is more than 95%), which can reduce about half of the amount of SO2 preparation, and can also alleviate the environmental pressure caused by SO2 emissions. External cost of raw materials: scale advantage reduces marginal cost. According to the company's prospectus data, the increase of product output can effectively reduce the marginal cost of production. The company now has the world's largest production capacity of 150,000 tons / year of thionyl chloride, the plant basically maintains full production, and the capacity advantage strengthens the cost advantage.
New materials: aramid polymerization monomer domestic leader, downstream aramid overall improvement, PEKK national exclusive, domestic substitution at the same time to promote the release of demand. Aramid monomer: the company has the largest domestic monomer production capacity of 310,000 tons / year, which can provide m / p phthaloyl chloride. On the one hand, through the long-term verification of the head customers, the company can stabilize the supply; on the other hand, the aramid industry continues to improve, and the expansion of downstream applications leads to the growth of monomer demand, such as industrial protective clothing, lithium diaphragm and other fields. PEKK: the company has a production capacity of 100t / an and is under construction of 1000 t / a. It is the only enterprise with large-scale production capacity in China, and the price is lower than the import price, which can accelerate the realization of domestic substitution in traditional fields. In addition, PEKK has good biocompatibility and is suitable for the field of medicine. Low price promotes the release of potential growth space. Therefore, benefiting from the "domestic substitution + demand expansion", PEKK capacity expansion will become another major product of the company.
New energy: ternary lithium electricity high nickelization promotes the growth of lithium salt LiFSI demand, the core raw material thionyl chloride boom, long-term supply is tight. Based on the improvement of battery life, fast charge, stability and other performance requirements of new energy products, ternary lithium high nickel has become one of the important development trends, but the instability of high nickel promotes the increase of LiFSI consumption, which is expected to reach 160000 tons in 2025. As one of the core raw materials of LiFSI, the demand of thionyl chloride will continue to grow, and the total demand will reach 700000 tons by 2025. Due to the difficulty of the expansion of the new project, combined with the existing and planned production capacity of 650,000 tons / year, the supply will tend to be tight in the long run. In addition, the company is one of the few companies that can produce battery-grade thionyl chloride with higher profits.
Investment suggestion: the company is steady and steady, gradually expand products, increase production capacity, and enrich its own product matrix. we are optimistic about the high growth space created by the new material plate and the development potential brought by the new energy field, so as to achieve the company's long-term and rapid development. It is estimated that from 2022 to 2024, the company's operating income will be 11.141,461 and 1.734 billion yuan, the net profit of its parent will be 3000.67 and 591 million, the EPS will be 0.71 and 1.11, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 21.4 times of 42.1 and 27.1, respectively. It will be given the "overweight" rating for the first time coverage.
Risk hint: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; the expansion of projects such as PEKK and chlorinated chemicals is not as expected; downstream demand is lower than expected.