This report is read as follows:
With volume premium, the cost is slightly reduced; the market price of thermal coal is high, Q4 performance can be expected; railway transport business increases significantly, methanol business losses.
Main points of investment:
Raise the profit forecast, maintain the target price and increase the rating. The company issued a performance forecast for the first three quarters of 2022, realizing a net profit of 1.478 billion to 1.578 billion (+ 14.84% ~ 22.61%), slightly higher than expected. as a market-oriented sales company, the company's performance was basically not affected by the price limit policy. The company will upgrade the company's 2022Universe 2023 EPS to 1.48Universe 1.62 in 2024, maintain its target price at 10.56, and increase its holding rating.
If the price is paid by volume, the cost will be reduced slightly. The company's 22Q3 return net profit is 5.54-654 million (- 15.55% ~-0.3%), with a forecast Q3 performance center of 604 million, a slight decrease of 0.98% from the previous month. Volume premium on the revenue side:
1) Q3 coal production 4.1684 million tons (month-on-month + 4.4%), sales volume 4.3081 million tons (month-on-month + 8.6%), production increasing quarter by quarter; 2) Q3-ton coal income of 570 yuan / ton (month-on-month). Cost end-to-month decline: Q3 tons of coal cost 212 yuan / ton (month-on-month ratio-0.7%), the company strictly controls costs, and it is expected that costs will remain stable in the future.
The market price of thermal coal is high, Q4 performance can be expected. 1) the company's thermal coal is mainly sold at market prices, and coal prices have risen rapidly since mid-August. Qinhuangdao port coal prices are currently maintaining a high level of about 1500 yuan / ton, and it is expected that the average price of coal sold by the company's Q4 is expected to increase compared with the previous month; 2) on September 28, the company's Hongyi Coal Mine (2.4 million tons) began joint trial operation, and Q4 will contribute to the increase.
The railway transport business increased significantly, while the methanol business lost money. 1) the railway transport business benefits from the good influence of the coal market, with an increase in transport volume and a significant increase in gross profit. Q3 railway transport volume is 1.9031 million tons (+ 10.70%) and gross profit is 33.3013 million yuan (+ 42.26%). 2) methanol business is affected by maintenance and high coal prices, resulting in a gross profit loss of 128800 tons of Q3 (+ 28.41%) and a gross profit loss of 72.1226 million yuan.
Risk hint: the macro-economy is lower than expected and coal prices fall faster than expected.