occurrences
On October 11, the company released a performance forecast report for the third quarter of 2022. The company expects to achieve net profit of about 278 million yuan to 309 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of about 80%-100% over the previous year.
reviews
The highest year-on-year increase in results for the first three quarters is expected to be 100%. The company expects to achieve net profit of about 278 million yuan to 309 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2022, an increase of about 80%-100% over the previous year; it expects to achieve net profit of 223 million yuan to 245 million yuan, an increase of about 100%-120% over the previous year. The company expects to achieve net profit of about 80 million yuan to 90 million yuan in the third quarter of 2022, an increase of about 60%-80% over the previous year. The main reasons are the good development of the inspection and testing business and magnetic materials business, the sharp increase in the profit level of manganese dioxide, and the increase in investment income.
The application space for magnetic materials is broad, and the testing industry is developing strongly. In terms of magnetic materials, rare earth permanent magnet NdFeB plays an important role in new energy vehicles, and demand continues to improve. Overall, in 2020, China's magnetic materials industry will have space of about 102.7 billion yuan, and is expected to reach 235.7 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of 12.6% in 7 years. In terms of testing business, since May 2022, the year-on-year growth rate of China's infrastructure construction investment completed has remained above 8%, and in August 2022, the year-on-year growth rate was 10.37%. High downstream growth may drive related testing demand.
Drive from multiple points to build enterprise growth together. According to the company's “14th Five-Year Plan” development strategy and planning outline, as of 2021, the production capacity of the company's metal products, electronic grade manganese tetroxide, permanent magnet ferrite devices, battery-grade manganese tetroxide devices, soft magnetic ferrite devices, and rare earth permanent magnet components was 7.0, 5.0, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5, and 0.2 million tons, respectively. If the company's related projects are successfully put into operation, the production capacity of these projects is expected to increase to 10.0, 6.0, 4.0, 1.5, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, and 10,000 tons, respectively. In terms of products, the development of the cathode materials industry will drive demand from the manganese tetroxide industry. In terms of organizational structure, since October 2020, the company has been managed by Baowu Group, which is expected to open up a new development situation.
Investment advice
With the sharp rise in product volume and price, the company's future performance will continue to increase. We expect the company's net profit to be $359/452/617 million for 2022/2023/2024, respectively, and the corresponding EPS of $0.47/0.60/0.81, respectively. Based on the closing price of 9.9 yuan on October 11, 2022, the corresponding PE was 20.91/16.64/12.17 times, respectively. Combined with the boom in the industry, we are optimistic about the company's development and maintain the “Highly Recommended” rating.
Risk warning
Environmental policies were tightened; downstream demand in the testing industry fell short of expectations; downstream demand for NdFeB fell short of expectations.
