Event: the company issued a forecast of results for the first three quarters of 2022: the net profit from January to September is expected to be 2.3-270 million yuan, an increase of 1354%-1607%, and the non-net profit is expected to be 2.23-263 million yuan, with an increase of 1973%-2345%.
The seasonal characteristics of chemicals disturb the Q3 performance, and the Q4 peak season delivery and settlement performance is released. The medium-and long-term positive trend remains due to the elimination of the impact of the Jiangsu Xiangshui incident to achieve normal supply, and the stable and diversified application scenarios of downstream agricultural production continue to extend to provide a new growth curve, leading to a substantial increase in profits in the first three quarters. The quarter-on-quarter decline in performance in the third quarter is mainly affected by the seasonal fluctuations of chemicals and the external environment:
1) cyanuric chloride: the seasonal characteristic is obvious, Q3 is the off-season of traditional sales, while the market price is basically flat, which proves that the downstream demand is strong and the unit profit level is still considerable. Q4 peak season settlement is expected to support strong business growth.
2) Color masterbatch: the global macroeconomic downturn superimposed the impact of the epidemic, which greatly affected the consumption willingness and convenience of residents, thus reducing the consumption demand for plastic products, making it difficult to raise the price of color masterbatch. The company speeds up the adjustment of product structure and increases the transformation of color and functional masterbatch products. With the accelerated release of fund-raising projects, product profitability is expected to be boosted.
The accelerated release of diaphragm production capacity is expected to gradually contribute to the performance, the layout of sodium and electric materials to create a platform competitive advantage of diaphragm heavy assets is obvious, and the completion and commissioning of the production line requires more labor, materials and manufacturing costs. at the same time, it takes a long time and verification to debug the production line to stabilize mass production. At present, the company's total production capacity of 150 million square meters has been basically at full capacity and supplied in batches, while the total production line of 150 million square meters has started trial production, or it can be fully put into production this month, confirming the speed of Wachovia. The company firmly promotes production capacity construction and has signed an equipment procurement contract with Zipu Machinery. 600 million square meters of production capacity may be added in 2023, and the long-term plan may exceed 1.5 billion square meters, and new entrants will further seize the share. Capacity construction forms an effective supply, and the performance is expected to be released quickly. At the same time, the company further develops semi-solid battery separator and is determined to become an excellent wet diaphragm supplier in lithium battery, sodium battery, semi-solid battery and other industries.
On the other hand, the company strengthens the coordination of the industrial chain, relies on the cyanide license and sodium cyanide production capacity to distribute sodium ion battery materials, increases the stake of Shenzhen Huasai new materials by 7%, and sets up a joint venture with colorful chemistry to build battery-grade Prussian blue (white) projects. cooperation plus Prussian sodium electric materials, platform competitive advantage is expected to be further consolidated.
Investment advice: the company's net profit from homing in 22-23-24 is expected to reach RMB 372, 552, 000, 200, 000.
Risk hint
The development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; the development of capacity expansion products is not as expected; material price fluctuations and so on.