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欧洲央行9月货币政策会议纪要:对经济增长的担忧不应阻止有力的加息行动

Minutes of the European Central Bank's September monetary policy meeting: concerns about economic growth should not prevent strong interest rate hikes

華爾街見聞 ·  Oct 6, 2022 20:47

Source: Wall Street

Author: Zhou Xiaoxia

ECB policy makers believe that concerns about economic growth should not prevent strong interest rate hikes, and that current price pressures are likely to persist for a long time.

With regard to inflation, the ECB said that price pressures are currently unusually high and are likely to last for a long time. Energy price inflation in the euro zone was 38.3% in August, once again the biggest factor in overall inflation.Food price inflation also rose in August, to 10.6 per cent from 9.8 per cent in July, partly due to higher input costs associated with energy, food trade disruptions and bad weather conditions. Market-based indicators show that oil prices will slow in the short term, but wholesale natural gas prices will remain extremely high. Although supply bottlenecks have been easing, they continue to gradually affect consumer prices.

The ECB noted that the recovery in demand in the service sector had also contributed to the rise in inflation, and the recent devaluation of the euro had exacerbated the accumulation of inflationary pressures.Price pressures continue to intensify and spread throughout the economy, in part because of the impact of high energy costs. As a result, most indicators of potential inflation are still at a high level. Inflation is likely to rise further in the short term. As the supply-side drivers of current inflation gradually disappear and the normalization of monetary policy gradually seeps into the economy and price setting, inflation will fall.

With regard to the scale of the rate hike, the minutes show that a very large number of member states expressed a preference for raising the ECB's key interest rate by 75 basis points.The 75 basis point interest rate increase is seen as a proportionate response to a further increase in the inflation outlook and an important signal of the committee's determination to bring inflation back to its 2 per cent target in a timely manner. At the end of the meeting, all members joined the consensus to raise the ECB's three key interest rates by 75 basis points. At the same time, it reiterated that the committee's decision still depends on the data, and the 75 basis point increase should not indicate that the committee intends to continue to raise interest rates by a similar magnitude at its future meetings.

With regard to the differences between the European and American markets, the ECB pointed out that a key factor contributing to the divergence was the sharp rise in European energy prices, which put pressure on household real disposable income and corporate earnings expectations.High energy prices in Europe and rising downside risks to eurozone growth relative to the US have also put pressure on the euro, as well as differences in the expected path of policy spreads between the two economies.

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