Global macro
The futures of the three major indexes of US stocks rose slightly before Monday's trading.
Non-farm report in September hit this week, can the market Q4 reverse the decline?
Although u.s. stocks ended up falling in the first three quarters of the year, history shows that the fourth quarter was the period with the highest returns for major u.s. stock indexes, with the s & p 500 up an average of 4.2% since 1949. The September non-farm payrolls data, to be released on Friday, will undoubtedly be the highlight of the week, and the better-than-expected data will reinforce bets on further aggressive interest rate hikes in November. For the Fed, there is no reason to slow the pace of tightening as long as inflation and the labour market remain hot. As a result, the latest employment report will be one of the most critical determinants ahead of the November policy meeting.
The Fed is already divided over the speed of interest rate hikes: vice Chairman Brainard took the lead in calling for caution
Fed officials are beginning to disagree on the pace of rate hikes in the face of hot inflation and increasing pressure from financial markets. Given that the current target range of the federal funds rate is 3% Murray 3.25%, only a few steps away from reaching the predicted peak, officials are beginning to disagree on the urgency of reaching the top. Hawkish officials such as Cleveland Fed Chairman Mestre say they must continue to raise interest rates aggressively to win the fight against inflation, even if it leads to recession. But Fed Vice Chairman Brainard has given a slightly softened assessment while continuing to stress the need for tighter policy.
Morgan Stanley: even if the Fed changes its position, it can't stop corporate profits from shrinking.
Morgan Stanley strategist Michael J. Wilson believes that although the Fed may turn to doves due to the decline in the global money supply, the current trend of earnings expectations, the main pain point for the stock market, will not change. Wilson, who correctly predicted the stock market sell-off this year, said in his report that "given the global M2 (in dollar terms), the Fed may change its focus at some point, but the timing is uncertain and will not change the trajectory of corporate earnings estimates."
Goldman Sachs Group: American households and foreign investors will sell more stocks in 2023
Goldman Sachs Group, a strategist led by David J. Kostin, said U.S. households and foreign investors are likely to sell $100 billion worth of U.S. stocks next year, close to their net purchases in 2022. Companies will be the biggest buyers of US stocks next year, and are likely to buy $500 billion worth of shares, slightly lower than in 2022, due to strong buybacks and weaker offerings. Pension funds are also likely to buy $200 billion worth of shares next year, they added.
American households are the largest buyers of U. S. stocks since 2020, but their demand for stocks fell slightly in the second quarter.
Hot news
Most of the star technology stocks rose before the market.
Century-old banking giant Credit Suisse fell into bankruptcy rumors, and credit risk index rose to a record level.
A century-old banking giant$Credit Suisse (CS.US)$Rumors of exploding thunder ferment over the weekend. Credit risk indicators rose to record levels after rumours that Credit Suisse was on the verge of bankruptcy. Swaps linked to Credit Suisse show that there is a 23% chance that Credit Suisse will default on its debt within five years. In recent years, after a series of negative events such as the explosion of Archegos Capital and the bankruptcy of Greensill Capital, Credit Suisse has been affected to a great extent from performance to brand reputation. The market fears that it may become "the next Lehman Brothers". As of press time, Credit Suisse was down more than 6% before trading.
Tesla, Inc. fell nearly 5% before trading, and the company's vehicle delivery volume in the third quarterFall short of market expectations
October second$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Delivery figures for the third quarter of 2022 were released, with delivery of 343800 vehicles, a record high, but below Wall Street expectations of 357900. Tesla, Inc. blamed logistics for the lower-than-expected delivery and pointed out that many vehicles were "still in transit". As of press time, Tesla, Inc. was down nearly 5 per cent before trading.
OPEC+ is said to consider the largest production cut since the outbreak, and oil stocks rose before the market.
Following a slight cut of 100000 barrels last month, the OPEC+, made up of oil-producing countries, will consider cutting production by more than 1 million barrels a day when it meets in Vienna on Wednesday, according to media reports. It is worth noting that if the production reduction is confirmed, it will be the largest production reduction of OPEC + since the epidemic. Delegates said they would not make a final decision on the scale of production cuts before ministers meet. As of the press release$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$It rose by more than 3% before trading.$Chevron (CVX.US)$、$Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Up nearly 3%.
Faraday Future: board of Directors proposes to vote "in support" of reverse stock split proposal
$Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. (FFIE.US)$In the announcement, the board of directors recommended that they vote "in support" of the proposal for a reverse stock split. It is recommended that the proposed amendment be approved to split common shares into reverse shares in an integer proportion from 1:2 to 1:10. As of press time, Faraday is down more than 4% in the future.
EU regulators will decide by November 8th whether to approve Microsoft Corp's acquisition of Activision Blizzard.
According to documents previously submitted by the European Commission, EU regulators will decide whether to approve or not by November 8.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Acquisition of game developers$Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US)$The deal. In January, Microsoft Corp announced that it would buy Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, the largest M & A deal in the history of the gaming industry. In theory, if EU regulators have serious concerns about the acquisition, they could launch a four-month investigation. EU regulators are likely to take this approach, according to people familiar with the matter. Microsoft Corp expressed confidence in completing the acquisition in fiscal year 2023.
Focus on China-listed stocks
Hot Chinese stocks fell slightly before trading.
September delivery appeared divergence, "Wei Xiaoli" pre-market ups and downs
Among the three new forces of Wei Xiaoli$Li Auto (LI.US)$Delivery in September was 11500, up 62.5 per cent from a year earlier. The month of September$XPeng (XPEV.US)$Sales fell, with delivery of 8468 vehicles, down 22.96 per cent from a year earlier. In the same period$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$A total of 10900 new cars were delivered, an increase of 2.4 per cent over the same period last year. As of press time, Li Auto Inc. is down 0.30%, XPeng Inc. is down 0.59%, and NIO Inc. is up 1.55%.
Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20
Us stock macro calendar reminder:
October third
21:45 final value of US Markit manufacturing PMI in September
22:00 US September ISM Manufacturing PMI
22:00 monthly rate of US construction expenditure in August
October fourth
02:15 2022 FOMC vote Committee, Kansas Federal Reserve Chairman George delivered a speech.
03:10 Williams, chairman of the permanent voting committee of FOMC and chairman of the New York Fed, made a speech.
Edit / Corrine