As the US recession seems to be a matter of time, not whether it will happen, economists are very cautious about the future outlook of the US economy.

In the United States, persistent inflation, pressure on corporate profits and a sharp decline in the housing market are three major factors hampering economic growth and raising concerns that these factors may be more complex after the end of the year.

Credit Suisse believes that efforts by central banks such as the Federal Reserve to control inflation will effectively bring the global economy to a standstill until trend growth returns. The company said US economic growth would be "close to zero" at the end of 2022 and GDP growth would be just 0.8 per cent by 2022.

Other big forecasters are also not optimistic about the outlook for U. S. economic growth. Bank of America Corporation (Bank of America) said it expects us GDP to grow by only 0.5% in the fourth quarter. Bank of America Corporation said a recession is coming, but it now expects it to come in 2023, rather than the end of 2022 as previously predicted.

Goldman Sachs Group (Goldman Sachs) also expects the US economy to muddle through in the next three months, but on Friday cut its growth forecast for 2023 to just 0.9 per cent.

"the US economy is going to have a hard landing," said Lavonia, chief US economist at SMBC. "even the best guess is that this will be a recession and will not be mild, because the US has already suffered a significant loss of wealth and there is a Fed committed to further interest rate increases."

Us GDP fell 1.6 per cent in the first quarter and 0.6 per cent in the second quarter. This is in line with the standard of two consecutive quarters of negative growth, which is usually considered a recession. GDP tracking data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (Atlanta Fed) show that GDP grew by 2.4% in the third quarter. The estimate was raised sharply after personal spending and income data were released on Friday.

Markets are divided over whether the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points for the fourth time in a row at its November meeting, with another 50 or 25 basis points expected in December. That would raise Fed interest rates to their highest level since the end of 2007.

This time, the Fed is deliberately slowing economic growth, especially in the red-hot labour market, which shows no sign of slowing. The labour market has always been tight, with two job openings for every worker, not only supporting economic growth, but also a headache for the inflation-focused Fed.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 3.5 million in the first eight months of this year, and average hourly wages rose 5.2 per cent from 12 months-an astonishing rate by historical standards, but not enough to keep pace with inflation of 8.3 per cent.

The conventional wisdom is that the Fed's policy lags behind, perhaps for six months to a year or more. As a result, it is unlikely that the labour market will withstand the pace of interest rate hikes that have not been seen in decades.

"the US third quarter (GDP) will be negative, and the fourth quarter will be even worse," Lavonia said. As a result, the US will have a recession in 2022, but there will not be a sense of recession until the labour market weakens sharply at the beginning of next year. At this point, I can see the Fed turning. "

This "U-turn" could mean a lot of things, with investors watching not only the Fed's policy actions, but also verbal cues from policy makers that they think they have done enough. In the meantime special attention will be paid to the press conference of Chairman Jerome Powell.

"I would be shocked if there were no recession in 2023," said Stanley Druckenmiller of the Duquesne family office. "I don't know the exact time, but it must be before the end of 2023."

"it's only a matter of time before there's going to be a recession in the United States," Ken Griffin, who runs the Citadel hedge fund, said of the US recession.