Last night, U. S. stocks rose and fell, closing down across the board. By the close, the s & p and Nasdaq were down 1.5%, and the Dow was down 1.7%. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to close at 3.83%, leaving it deep upside down compared with the yield difference of-45 basis points over the two-year Treasury note. The panic index VIX fell 0.69 per cent. The price of crude oil continued to fall, with Brent crude falling 2% to 85.34. Spot gold closed flat at $1660.9 an ounce. The dollar index rose 0.17% to 112.
The US core PCE price index recorded an annualised rate of 4.9 per cent in August, higher than the expected 4.7 per cent and a previous value of 4.6 per cent. The monthly rate of personal expenditure in August was 0.4%, also higher than the expected 0.20%, with a previous value of 0.10%. Institutional analysis said that PCE shows the hot phenomenon of inflation again. The red-hot August CPI report has triggered the latest round of risk aversion, but the PCE data still surprise the market.
Fed Vice Chairman Brainard said in a speech that inflation in the United States is still very high and the bitmap shows that interest rates will be raised in the future. The Fed promised to avoid withdrawing from tightening prematurely, but it also focused on financial fragility and considered the spillover effects of tighter global interest rates. Fed ticketing Committee Daley said that the US economy is not in recession, the economy now needs to slow down, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates further, depending on the data.
The final consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in September was 58.6, lower than the expected reading of 59.5 and the previous value of 59.5. The median long-term inflation expectation was 2.7 per cent, falling below the 2.9-3.1 per cent range for the first time since July 2021. Institutional analysts said that although consumer confidence was slightly lower than expected, the overall resilience remained, the US economy showed signs of cooling, and the Fed would maintain tight monetary policy for the foreseeable future to continue to hold down inflation expectations.
Warnings that raising interest rates could be painful are still emerging, shaking investor confidence in central banks, including the Federal Reserve, institutional analysts said. Strategists at Bank of America Corporation warn that the Fed's path of action could push credit markets into functional imbalances. "investors should not ask whether the Fed will turn, but how deep a recession we will fall into before they finally act."
02 Industry & individual stocks
In terms of the industry sector, all the S & P 11 sectors except real estate closed down, while the real estate sector bucked the trend and closed up 1%. The high-tech, optional consumer and utility sectors fell nearly 2%, the required consumer sector fell 1.7%, the medical sector fell 1.4%, the communications sector fell 1.2%, the industrial sector fell 1.3%, the financial sector fell 0.9%, and the raw materials sector fell 0.2%.
All large technology stocks closed lower. Apple Inc fell 3 per cent and about 8 per cent in two days. Apple Inc's South Korean headquarters was raided by antitrust authorities and accused of App Store commissions of more than 30 per cent. Tesla, Inc. is down 1.1%, and humanoid robots will be released over the weekend. Musk said again on social media that there will be a lot of technical details and cool hardware demonstrations on Tesla, Inc. AI Day. Microsoft Corp is down 1.94% and is expanding Win11's Android subsystem to more countries, and 21 regions have been announced. Amazon.Com Inc fell 1.6%. In order to cut expenses, Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN.US) plans to keep only one call center in the United States.
Some popular US-listed stocks bucked the trend, with the China Internet Index (Kweb) up 0.33%. KE Holdings Inc. rose 7.75% and spent about $1 million to buy back about 184000 shares on Sept. 29. Pinduoduo rose 2.98%. On September 1st, Pinduoduo officially launched an independent cross-border e-commerce station, Temu, to sea in North America. BABA rose 1%, JD.com fell 1.8%. Due to Tesla, Inc. 's price reduction expectations, new energy car-building new forces are generally under pressure, ideal fell 1.5%, XPeng Inc. fell 1.3%, NIO Inc. closed up 1.2%. Bilibili Inc. rose 0.46%, and BofA Securities said Bailey could be included in Hong Kong Stock Connect after National Day.
03 company focus
1. [Nike Inc's share price plummeted 12.8% and its market capitalization fell by more than $16.6 billion]
According to the financial report, Nike Inc's Q1 revenue for fiscal year 23 was $12.7 billion, up 4% from the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of $12.27 billion; net profit was $1.5 billion, down 22% from the same period last year; and earnings per share was $0.93, higher than market expectations of $0.92. However, Nike Inc's first-quarter gross profit margin fell 220bp to 44.3 per cent, compared with a consensus forecast of 45.4 per cent.
In terms of institutional ratings, of all 35 agencies that participated in the rating, 66% of brokerages gave buy advice, 34% gave hold advice, and no brokerage gave sell advice.
2. [Micron's revenue decline of 20% management expects the storage market to recover in the second half of 2023]
Micron's fourth-quarter fiscal 2022 results showed revenue fell about 20 per cent year-on-year to $6.64 billion, the first decline in more than two years, below Micron's previous target of $6.693 billion and below market expectations of $6.693 billion. Net income was $1.49 billion, down 45% from a year earlier, to $1.35 a share, compared with $2.39 a year earlier, and the market is expected to be $1.198.
Looking forward to the first quarter of fiscal 2023 (September-November), Micron Technology Inc expects adjusted revenue of $4 billion to $4.5 billion in the first quarter. It was well below the average analyst estimate of $6 billion. Excluding some items, earnings per share are expected to be about $0.04-$0.10, compared with analysts' expectations of $0.87.
美光表示，正在迅速采取行动应对需求的下降。这包括放慢现有工厂的生产速度，削减机器预算。美光CEO Mehrotra在与分析师的电话会议上表示，之前美光已经大幅削减了资本开支，现在预计 2023 财年的资本开支规模将是 80 亿美元，比上一财年将下降 30%。其中，美光在2023财年将把芯片封装设备方面的投资砍掉一半。
Micron said it was moving quickly to deal with the decline in demand. This includes slowing down production at existing factories and cutting machine budgets. Micron CEO Mehrotra said on a conference call with analysts that Micron had already slashed its capital expenditure, which is now expected to be $8 billion in fiscal 2023, down 30 per cent from the previous fiscal year. Among them, Micron will cut its investment in chip packaging equipment in half in fiscal year 2023.
3.【特斯拉Q4计划生产近49.5万辆Model Y和Model 3】
3. [Tesla, Inc. Q4 plans to produce nearly 495000 Model Y and Model 3]
据媒体报道，特斯拉计划在今年四季度生产近49.5万辆Model Y和Model 3，这一数字将远高于该公司三季度的产量。特斯拉预计，2023年前三季度，Model Y和Model 3的产量将达到159万辆。特斯拉通常会在季度结束后的三天内公布交付和生产数据，该公司预计最早将于当地时间周六（10月1日）公布三季度的交付量和产量。分析师预计，特斯拉三季度的交付量有望接近35.8万辆。
According to media reports, Tesla, Inc. plans to produce nearly 495000 Model Y and Model 3 in the fourth quarter of this year, which will be much higher than the company's production in the third quarter. Tesla, Inc. predicts that production of Model Y and Model 3 will reach 1.59 million in the first three quarters of 2023. Tesla, Inc. usually publishes delivery and production data within three days after the end of the quarter, and the company expects to release delivery and production for the third quarter as early as Saturday local time. Analysts estimate that Tesla, Inc. 's delivery volume in the third quarter is expected to be close to 358000.
4. [EU regulators will decide by November 8th whether to approve Microsoft Corp's acquisition of Activision Blizzard]
EU regulators will decide by Nov. 8 whether to approve Microsoft Corp's acquisition of game developer Activision Blizzard, according to a document submitted by the European Commission on Friday. In January, Microsoft Corp announced that it would buy Activision Blizzard for $68.7 billion, the largest M & A deal in the history of the gaming industry. In theory, if EU regulators have serious concerns about the acquisition, they could launch a four-month investigation. EU regulators are likely to take this approach, according to people familiar with the matter. Microsoft Corp expressed confidence in completing the acquisition in fiscal year 2023.