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富途早报 | 美联储内部现分歧,二把手带头表示加息要谨慎;华尔街最准分析师:美股明年一月触及「大低点」
Fortune Morning Post: there is a disagreement within the Federal Reserve, and the second leader takes the lead in saying that interest rates should be raised cautiously; Wall Street's most prospective analyst: us stocks hit a "big low" in January next yea

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Hot news

  • 美联储内部现分歧,二把手带头表示加息要谨慎

  • There is a disagreement within the Federal Reserve, and the second leader takes the lead in saying that we should be cautious in raising interest rates.


With the third violent rate hike in a row, recession fears intensified, and there began to be different voices within the Fed about the pace of rate hikes. On Friday, Brainard, the Fed's second-in-command and vice-chairman, made her first speech by the Fed leadership since last week's interest rate meeting, saying that premature withdrawal of interest rate increases should be avoided, but warned that rapid interest rate increases by global central banks could shake financial markets. Daley, chairman of the San Francisco Fed, expressed a similar view. She had previously said the Fed's delicate balance between curbing demand to slow inflation without triggering a recession would be a "struggle". However, hawks such as Cleveland Fed Chairman Mestre say that even if the economy enters a recession, the Fed must continue to actively raise interest rates to win the war on inflation.

  • 美国经济再亮红灯?9月芝加哥PMI大幅逊于预期,急速降至45.7

  • The American economy gives a red light again? Chicago PMI fell sharply below expectations in September, falling sharply to 45.7.


The Chicago business barometer data released on Sept. 30, commonly known as the Chicago PMI reading of 45.7, is not only below the boom-bust line, but also well below last month's 52.2 and consensus expectations of 51.8. The figure was the lowest since June 2020. The market expects the US ISM manufacturing PMI to weaken next Monday, but it is still in the range of expansion. In terms of items broken down, the data's paid prices, new orders and employment are likely to be moderately weak, but factory orders are expected to become positive.

  • 美国消费者9月长期通胀预期继续回落,创2021年4月来最低

  • Us consumers' long-term inflation expectations continued to fall in September, the lowest since April 2021


Long-term inflation expectations for consumers in Michigan fell further in September, the lowest since April 2021, according to data released on Friday. Inflation expectations for September 1 are 4.7%, expected 4.6%, initial 4.6%, and August 4.8%; 5-year inflation expectations are 2.7%, the lowest since April 2021, with expectations of 2.8%, initial value 2.8%, and August final value 2.9%. However, the final consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan in September was 58.6, with an expected value of 59.5, an initial value of 59.5, and a final value of 58.2 in August, although it rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than expected.

  • 美国通胀指标意外加速上行!8月核心PCE同比增4.9%

  • U. S. inflation indicators unexpectedly accelerated upward! Core PCE rose 4.9% year-on-year in August


On September 30th, data from the U.S. Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. PCE price index rose 6.2% in August from a year earlier, higher than market expectations of 6%. The previous value was 6.3% (revised to 6.4%), the second consecutive month of decline in year-on-year growth and the slowest pace since February this year. But the core PCE price index (excluding food and energy prices) rose 4.9 per cent year-on-year in August, higher than expected 4.7 per cent, the previous value of 4.6 per cent (revised to 4.7 per cent), the highest year-on-year growth rate since May; the core PCE price index rose 0.6 per cent month-on-month in August, higher than the expected 0.5 per cent, the previous value of 0.1 per cent (revised down to 0 per cent), the month-on-month growth rate is still close to an all-time high.

  • 华尔街最准分析师:美股明年一月触及「大低点」,届时联储鹰派态度或现拐点

  • Wall Street's most prospective analyst: us stocks hit a "big low" in January next year, when the Fed's hawkish attitude or inflection point

华尔街最准分析师、来自美银的Michael Hartnett在最新报告中表示,当各国央行们开始恐慌时,市场就会停止恐慌。Hartnett预计标普500指数将跌至3,333点,而这一点位可能会在11月的G20会议附近引发「政策恐慌」。他预测在那之    后美股会反弹,但认为美国市场要到明年第一季度才会触及「大低点」,届时经济衰退和信贷冲击将导致收益率、美元和美联储的鹰派态度自顶峰出现拐点。他还表示,「华尔街最好的晴雨表」——纽约证交所综合指数(NYSE Composite Index)正在崩溃,在市场恐慌性抛售迫使美联储干预之前,他们保持战术上的看跌观点。

Michael Hartnett of Bank of America, the most prospective analyst on Wall Street, said in a new report that when central banks start to panic, the market will stop panicking. The Hartnett expects the S & P to fall to 3333, a level that could trigger a "policy panic" near the G20 meeting in November. He predicts that US stocks will rebound after that, but believes the US market will not hit a "big low" until the first quarter of next year, when the recession Xiaobai Maimai Inc shock will lead to an inflection point in yields, the dollar and the Fed's hawkish attitude from its peak. He also said the New York Stock Exchange Composite Index (NYSE Composite Index), "the best barometer on Wall Street", was collapsing and remained tactically bearish until the panic sell-off forced the Fed to intervene.


Hartnett, known as Wall Street's most accurate analyst of the year, accurately predicted a sharp fall in U. S. stocks in the first half of the year and a strong rebound in U. S. stocks.

  • 美银:联储若再一味加息,美国或成下一个英国

  • Bank of America: if the Fed raises interest rates again, the United States may become the next Britain.

在美国银行高收益债券策略团队最近发布的报告中,分析师Oleg Melentyev和Eric Yu认为,当前困境的深度和广度,以及债务与企业价值的比率都高于他们的预期。该行编制的信用压力指标当前已经被推至「临界区」。Melentyev认为,在下一次议息会议上,美联储应当放缓加息步伐,之后应该暂停,以使经济能够完全适应已经实施的所有极端紧缩政策。否则,将会增加债市市场失灵的风险。

In a recent report by Bank of America Corporation's high-yield bond strategy team, analysts Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu believe that the depth and breadth of the current dilemma and the ratio of debt to corporate value are higher than they expected. The credit stress index compiled by the bank has been pushed to the "critical area". Melentyev believes that at its next meeting, the Fed should slow the pace of rate hikes and then pause it so that the economy can fully adapt to all the extreme tightening already in place. Otherwise, it will increase the risk of bond market failure.

  • 安联首席:没有「金融事故」就别指望「央行转向」

  • Chief of Allianz: don't expect "central bank turn" without "financial accident"

随着全球金融市场不断出现大幅动荡,市场上也开始出现了期待央行政策立场转向的苗头。对此,安联首席经济顾问Mohamed El-Erian表示,那些预计美联储和其他央行将停止加息的人都要小心自己的「愿望」:这种转向只有在发生经济事故或金融事故时才会发生。发生经济事故或金融事故的过程是非常痛苦的。El-Erian表示,过去一周市场的动荡是经济脆弱的迹象,预计「未来几周将非常不稳定。」

With the continuous sharp turmoil in the global financial markets, there are signs of looking forward to a shift in the policy stance of the central bank. In response, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz's chief economic adviser, said those who expected the Fed and other central banks to stop raising interest rates should beware of their "desire" that such a shift would only happen in the event of an economic or financial accident. The process of economic or financial accidents is very painful. El-Erian said the market turmoil of the past week was a sign of economic fragility and expected "very unstable in the coming weeks." "

  • 报道:OPEC+将考虑每日减产逾百万桶

  • Report: OPEC+ will consider reducing production by more than 1 million barrels per day


After a slight cut of 100000 barrels last month, OPEC+ may cut production by a larger margin at this month's meeting in response to a sustained pullback in oil prices. The OPEC+, made up of oil-producing countries, will consider cutting production by more than 1 million barrels a day when it meets in Vienna on Wednesday, according to media reports. Delegates said they would not make a final decision on the scale of production cuts before ministers meet. Brent crude soared to more than $125 a barrel after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated in February. Since then, oil prices have fallen to about $85 as concerns about global economic growth have intensified and the dollar has strengthened.


  • 丹麦能源署:「北溪-1」天然气管道已停止泄漏

  • Danish Energy Agency: "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline has stopped leaking


Local time on October 2, the Danish Energy Agency said that the "Nord Stream-1" natural gas pipeline has stopped leaking gas and the pressure is stable. Earlier, it was reported that a spokesman for the "Beixi-2" natural gas pipeline said that the air pressure and water pressure in the pipeline had reached a balance, and the pipeline no longer leaked gas. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that technically speaking, there is a possibility to repair the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline, but similar accidents have never happened before, so it will take time and sufficient funds to complete the repair work.

  • 2022年诺贝尔奖将从10月3日起陆续揭晓

  • The 2022 Nobel Prize will be announced one after another from October 3.


According to the official website of the Nobel Prize, the 2022 Nobel Prize will be announced from October 3 to 10. The Nobel Foundation also decided to invite 2022 Nobel laureates to participate in Nobel Prize presentation week in Stockholm, Sweden, along with winners in 2020 and 2021. It is reported that the award ceremony is scheduled to be held at the Stockholm Concert Hall and a banquet will be held at the Stockholm City Hall.


Review of US stocks

  • 上周五美股三大指数收跌,均录得年内新低

  • Last Friday, the three major indexes of US stocks closed down, all recording new lows for the year.


Last Friday, the three major indexes of U. S. stocks opened lower, rose in intraday trading and finally closed down. The Dow fell 1.71% and the S & P 500 fell 1.51%, both of which hit nearly two-year lows on the third day of the week, while the Nasdaq fell 1.51% to a more than two-year low.


  • 特斯拉「擎天柱」人形机器人亮相

  • Tesla, Inc. "Optimus Prime" humanoid robot unveiled


在2022$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $Elon Musk, the company's chief executive, showed off the "Optimus Prime" humanoid robot on AI Day. Musk first showed Optimus Prime moving boxes, watering plants and moving metal rods in a car factory through a video. He then showed the version of the Optimus Prime robot ready to go into production, saying, "the goal is to create a humanoid robot that is useful to humans as soon as possible." According to Musk, the humanoid robot Optimus Prime Optimus could produce millions in the future and is expected to cost less than $20, 000 (about 142300 yuan), which is cheaper than a car.

  • 报道:特斯拉计划在Q4开始大幅增产,2023年产量将增长超过50%

  • Report: Tesla, Inc. plans to increase production significantly in Q4, and the output will increase by more than 50% in 2023.

据媒体报道,$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$计划在今年第四季度大幅增产,预计生产近49.5万辆的Model Y和Model 3。这两种车型是特斯拉最畅销的两款车型,占特斯拉产量的95%。根据该生产计划,特斯拉的产量将增长超过50%,增幅预计是全球汽车市场的10倍左右。特斯拉预计,2023年前三季度,Model Y和Model 3的产量将达到159万辆。如果实现该目标,特斯拉2023年全年电动汽车销量有望超过210万辆。此外,特斯拉发布消息称,德国柏林超级工厂Model Y周产量突破2000辆。

According to media reports$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $A substantial increase in production is planned in the fourth quarter of this year, with nearly 495000 Model Y and Model 3 expected to be produced. These two models are Tesla, Inc. 's two best-selling models, accounting for 95 per cent of Tesla, Inc. 's output. According to the production plan, Tesla, Inc. 's output will grow by more than 50 per cent, which is expected to be about 10 times that of the global car market. Tesla, Inc. predicts that production of Model Y and Model 3 will reach 1.59 million in the first three quarters of 2023. If this goal is achieved, Tesla, Inc. is expected to sell more than 2.1 million electric vehicles in 2023. In addition, Tesla, Inc. released news that the weekly output of Model Y, a super factory in Berlin, Germany, exceeded 2000 vehicles.


  • 特斯拉第三季度交付汽车34.38万辆,略逊预期

  • Tesla, Inc. in the third quarterDelivery343800 cars, slightly less than expected

$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$第三季度汽车交付量34.38万,市场预估为35.79万。特斯拉第三季度MODEL 3/Y 交付量32.52万辆,预估34.98万。特斯拉第三季度MODEL S/X 交付量 1.87万辆,预估1.61万。产量方面,特斯拉第三季度汽车产量36.59万辆,预估35.99万;第三季度MODEL S和MODEL X产量 1.99万,预估1.58万;第三季度MODEL 3/Y 产量 34.60万辆,预估35.67万。

$Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) $The car delivery volume in the third quarter is 343800, and the market estimate is 357900. Tesla, Inc. 's third-quarter delivery volume of 325200 MODEL 3Compact Y vehicles is expected to be 349800. Tesla, Inc. 's third-quarter delivery volume of 18700 MODEL Splash X vehicles is expected to be 16100. In terms of production, Tesla, Inc. produced 365900 vehicles in the third quarter, with an estimate of 359900; MODEL S and MODEL X produced 19900 units in the third quarter, estimated at 15800; and MODEL 3Unique Y produced 346000 vehicles in the third quarter, with an estimated 356700.

  • 马斯克推特收购案最新细节披露:原来是在短信上谈崩了

  • The latest details of Musk's Twitter acquisition are revealed: it turns out that the conversation broke down on the text message.

根据在马斯克收购$Twitter(TWTR.US)$案公开听证会上披露的信息,马斯克在与推特CEO Parag Agrawal的一次戏剧性短信交流中,改变了收购推特的主意。马斯克一直在推特上发布各种半开玩笑的民意调查和对推特有争议性的诋毁。Agrawal给马斯克发短信称:「你可以自由地在推特上发任何关于推特的事情,但我有责任告诉你,在当前的环境下,这并不能帮助我让推特变得更好。」随后马斯克向他发短信表示:「我不会加入董事会。对推特私有化的提议是在浪费时间。」马斯克发短信给推特董事会主席Bret Taylor表示:「通过和Parag聊天来修复推特是行不通的,需要采取更激烈的行动。清除虚假用户会让数据看起来很糟糕,推特应该进行重组。」

According to the acquisition in Musk$Twitter (TWTR.US) $Musk changed his mind about buying Twitter during a dramatic text message exchange with Twitter CEO Parag Agrawal, according to information disclosed at a public hearing on the case. Musk has been posting all kinds of half-joking opinion polls and controversial slanders on Twitter. Agrawal texted Max: "you are free to post anything about Twitter, but it is my responsibility to tell you that in the current environment, it does not help me to make Twitter better." Mr Musk then texted him: "I will not join the board. The proposal to privatize Twitter is a waste of time. Musk texted Bret Taylor, chairman of Twitter's board, saying: "fixing Twitter by chatting with Parag will not work and more drastic action is needed. Getting rid of fake users will make the data look bad, and Twitter should be reorganized. "

  • 苹果将iPhone 6机型列入古董产品清单

  • Apple Inc added iPhone 6 to the list of antique products.

$苹果(AAPL.US)$官网显示,该公司本周更新了其古董和淘汰产品清单(vintage and obsolete products),古董产品中新增iPhone 6机型。今年2月,iPhone 6 Plus机型被苹果列入古董产品清单。据悉,古董产品清单上的设备是苹果公司已经停售了超过五年和低于七年的产品。

$Apple Inc (AAPL.US) $The company updated its antiques and obsolete product list (vintage and obsolete products) this week, adding iPhone 6 models to its antique products, according to its website. In February this year, the iPhone 6 Plus model was added to the antique product list by Apple Inc. It is reported that the equipment on the antique product list is a product that Apple Inc has stopped selling for more than five years and less than seven years.

  • 英特尔旗下Mobileye在美提交IPO申请

  • Intel Corp's Mobileye submits IPO application in the United States


$Intel Corp (INTC.US) $Mobileye, its self-driving technology company, filed an IPO application with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Documents show that Mobileye will continue to be controlled by Intel Corp after listing. The company did not disclose the expected size of the IPO, nor did it give guidance on the expected offering price. Mobileye applied to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol MBLY. Previously, Intel Corp estimated that IPO valued Mobileye at $30 billion.


  • 动视暴雪首席合规官离职,曾因回应公司指控惹争议

  • Activision Blizzard's chief compliance officer left, causing controversy in response to the company's allegations

据报道,$动视暴雪(ATVI.US)$首席合规官弗朗西丝·汤森德(Frances Townsend)因去年对公司性侵指控的回应而受到密切关注,如今,随着动视暴雪出售给$微软(MSFT.US)$交易的即将完成,汤森德也将辞职。汤森德2021年3月加盟动视暴雪,除了担任首席合规官,她还兼任动视暴雪企业事务执行副总裁。

According to reports,Activision Blizzard (ATVI.US) $Chief compliance officer Frances Townsend (Frances Townsend) was closely watched for her response to allegations of sexual assault at the company last year, and now, with Activision Blizzard selling to$Microsoft Corp (MSFT.US) $The deal is nearing completion and Townsend will resign. Townsend joined Activision Blizzard in March 2021, serving as chief compliance officer and executive vice president of corporate affairs for Activision Blizzard.


Last Friday, US stock turnover TOP20



The Prospect of Hong Kong City

  • 多部门密集推出多项措施提振楼市

  • Multi-departments have launched a number of measures to boost the property market


On September 30, the people's Bank of China announced that with effect from October 1, 2022, the lending rate of the first personal housing provident fund would be reduced by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years would be adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively. The second set of personal housing provident fund loan interest rate policy remains unchanged. On the same day, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice proposing that from October 1, 2022 to December 31, 2023, taxpayers who sell their own housing and repurchase housing in the market within one year after the sale of current housing, tax rebates will be given to the individual income tax paid on the sale of existing housing. A few days ago, the people's Bank of China and the Bank of China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a paper that decided to adjust the differential housing credit policy in stages.

  • 报道:腾讯正大举收购海外游戏公司

  • Report: Tencent is buying overseas game companies on a large scale.

当地时间10月1日,媒体援引四位知情人士报道称,$腾讯控股(00700.HK)$正在大举收购海外游戏公司的大部分股权或控股权,尤其注重欧洲游戏公司,主要涉及元宇宙领域。据悉,腾讯今年投资了多家外国游戏工作室,包括法国最大的游戏开发商育碧和《艾尔登法环》的开发商FromSoftware。腾讯首席战略官James Mitchell在二季度财报电话会上表示,腾讯将继续积极收购海外的新游戏工作室。此前腾讯倾向于购买小部分股权来投资海外公司,而现在更倾向于全盘收购。

On October 1, local time, the media quoted four people familiar with the matter as saying$Tencent (00700.HK) $A large number of shares or controlling shares in overseas game companies are being acquired, with a particular focus on European game companies, mainly in the field of meta-universe. It is reported that Tencent has invested in a number of foreign game studios this year, including Ubisoft, the largest game developer in France, and FromSoftware, the developer of the Elden Ring. James Mitchell, chief strategy officer of Tencent, said at the second quarter earnings call that Tencent will continue to actively acquire new overseas game studios. Tencent had previously preferred to buy a small stake to invest in overseas companies, but now he prefers to buy it all.

  • 吉利控股入股阿斯顿马丁

  • Geely Holdings invests in Aston Martin


The evening of September thirtieth$Geely Automobile (00175.HK) $Parent company Geely Holdings confirmed that Geely Holdings has completed the acquisition of 7.60% of the shares of British ultra-luxury performance brand Aston Martin Lagunda International Holdings. Prior to this, Geely Holdings has acquired one after anotherVolvo (VLVLY.US) $Shares of international auto brands such as Daimler, Lutes, etc. At present, Aston Martin's net loss in 2021 is as high as 189 million pounds, compared with global sales of only 2676 vehicles in the first half of 2022, a record pre-tax loss of 285 million pounds.

  • 9月新能源车交付榜单出炉,理想交付11531辆位居「蔚小理」榜首

  • In September, the delivery list of new energy vehicles was released, and the ideal delivery of 11531 vehicles topped the list of "Wei Xiaoli".


Chinese new energy automobile companies have released new car delivery data for September 2022.$Li Auto Inc.-W (02015.HK) $A total of 11531 new cars were delivered in September, an increase of 152.3% over the previous month and 62.5% over the same period last year, ranking first among Wei Xiaoli.$NIO Inc.-SW (09866.HK) $A total of 10878 new cars were delivered in September, an increase of 1.88% month-on-month and 29.3% year-on-year.$XPeng Inc.-W (09868.HK) $8468 new cars were delivered in September, down 11.6% from the previous month and 18.7% from the same period last year, making it the only company among the mainstream new forces to decline in both months and year-on-year. Listed on Hong Kong stocks on September 29th$zero running car (09863.HK) $A total of 11039 new cars were delivered in September, up more than 200% from a year earlier, but down 11.4% from a month earlier.


Focus today


Key words: speech by Barkin and Bostick of the Federal Reserve; meeting of the economic situation in the euro zone; summary of the monetary policy meeting released by the Bank of Japan


On Monday, in terms of economic dataPay attention to the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States and the manufacturing PMI in the UK and the euro zone.

PMI是指Purchasing Managers' Index,中文意思是采购经理指数,指对全国最具代表性企业的采购经理的月度调查汇总出来的指数,主要通过订单、生产、雇员、配送、存货等指标动态变化,来反映经济活动所处的周期状态。

PMI refers to Purchasing Managers' Index, which means purchasing manager index in Chinese. It refers to the index summed up by the monthly survey of purchasing managers of the most representative enterprises in the country, mainly through the dynamic changes of orders, production, employees, distribution, inventory and other indicators to reflect the periodic state of economic activities.


In terms of financial eventsTwo members of the 2024 FOMC voting committee, Bostick and Barkin, will appear; Balkin said earlier this month that the Fed promised and would "take all necessary measures" to restore inflation to its 2 per cent target. He will give his latest speech, and investors need to keep an eye on it.


Eurozone foreign ministers will meet on how to deal with the eurozone economy in the face of high energy prices and inflation, and the Bank of Japan will release a summary of the views of members of the monetary policy meeting in October.



Niuniu morning reading:



Success requires extraordinary calm and patience, but it also needs to be enterprising enough when the opportunity comes.

-- Charlie Munger


Edit / Jeffrey

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