We used 16 downgrades to show that next week's Heng Index will have a 4-day “bull market”

智通财经 · Jan 6, 2019 14:53

幸福来的太突然!

由于2018年12月全国制造业PMI指数降至枯荣线下方的49.4%，创下2016年3月以来新低，制造业景气度转差引起市场担忧，导致A股、港股均遭遇2019年“开门绿”，上证综指跌超1%，恒生指数跌2.77%，市场“乌云密布”。

就在昨日，央行发布公告称，为进一步支持实体经济发展，优化流动性结构，降低融资成本，中国人民银行决定下调金融机构存款准备金率1个百分点置换部分中期借贷便利。

此消息一出，股市闻风而涨，上证综指涨超2%，恒生指数涨幅2.24%，央行为市场撒了一波“红包”。不过，这次的“福利”有多大，能持续多久才是接下来的重点。

下周四个交易日股市大概率上涨?

为此，智通财经APP整理统计了历次降准的基本情况以及在不同时间段内降准对恒生指数的影响，以便探索降准对于股市的秘密。

周一.png

从2008年金融危机至今，降准已经历了17次，其中，2015年降准次数最多，为5次，在2018年落实的降准也有4次，今年的降准次数自然也不会太少。

恒大研究院的任泽平表示，目前经济下行压力加大，通缩迹象明显、金融机构的风险偏好依然较低，2019年降准空间大，建议不少于4次降准，这是否意味着今年还有三次“红包”可抢?未必!

从统计的数据来看，降准公布次日，恒指上涨的概率为37.5%，降准公布5个交易日内，恒指上涨概率为43.75%，降准公布一个月内，恒指成上涨的概率降至37.5%。

简单了说，降准并不总是能提振股市，因为降准的出现就是为了应对流动性紧张以及对冲风险，这个时候的经济，并不那么稳健，所以在一个月这样短期的时间内，股市的走势更可能是下跌趋势。

但值得注意的是，若降准公布次日恒指表现为上涨，那在接下来的5个交易日中，恒指继续上涨的概率较大。以历史数据为例，降准公布次日恒指上涨有6次，其中的5次在接下来的5个交易日中继续上涨，上涨概率为83.33%。

若将时间拉长至一个月，即使降准公布次日恒指上涨，后续的表现也有所减弱，满足降准公布次日上涨，5个交易日继续上涨，一个月还在涨的次数仅有2次，上涨概率降至33.33%。

因此，若不考虑其他因素，仅从数据统计角度来看，1月4日的降准是在盘中公布(之前大多公布于周末)，可理解为本次属于公布次日上涨，那么，下周的剩余四个交易日，恒指整体走强的概率为83.33%。

今年或有3-4次降准?

降准对股市短期的改变值得推敲，但长期的、宏观性的影响更值得思考。

若不包括1月4日的这次降准，自2008年金融危机以来，我国一共进行过16次降准，主要集中于2008年、2015年、2018年，在这三个年份中实施的降准次数分别为3次、5次、4次，且这三个年份都有共同的特点，即股市走的“稀烂”，以恒生指数为例，2008年跌幅48.27%，2015年恒指冲高回落，年内最大跌幅28.09%，2018年同样冲高回落，年内最大跌幅26.7%。

而在2008、2015年，经过降准刺激经济后，下一年的股市有所好转，2009年恒生指数涨幅52.02%，2016年恒指虽未大幅反弹，但全年录得0.39%的微弱涨幅，且在这两年中，降准次数明显降低，2009年降准0次，2016年降准1次，这说明当年的经济已有所回暖，不需要降准或降准次数调低。

但在2018年实施4次降准后，2019年的降准次数或许并不会减少，因为根据智通财经APP的不完全统计，目前已有恒大研究院、平安证券、天风证券、中国民生银行首席均表示今年将有3-4次降准，部分券商机构认为不止降准，后续可能还会有全面降息。

由此可见，2019年的经济走势并没有那么乐观，作为投资者，应做好准备。

房地产触底?

除了股市，降准对于楼市的影响也是大众讨论的热门话题，毕竟工资“跑不过”房价的无力感绝大多数人都深有体会。若不算此次，自2008年金融危机以来，共有四次降准1个百分点，分别是2008年、2015年、2018年两次。

2008年的降准，主要是为了应对国际金融危机，2015年的1个百分点降准，是自金融危机之后，6年时间中的最强降准幅度。此次降准的推出，是由于2015年一季度的GDP增长缩至7%，而2014年的GDP为7.3%，经济下行压力较大。

2015年的楼市，在去库存的大背景下，支持刚需和改善型需求，政策基调比较宽松，降准后，中国楼市整体持续复苏。2015年年末时，深圳房价涨幅47.5%，上海、北京、广州分别上涨18.2%、10.4%、9.2%。

2018年的两次1个百分点降准，更突显了市场需调节的紧迫性，经济下行压力较大，且美国的加息周期推进后，市场资金的流动性逐渐萎缩，微小企业的融资难问题日益突显。

2018年的四次降准落实，力度不可谓不大，但与2015年不同，2018年的楼市在400多次政策调控之下有所降温，楼市销售增速放缓，据安居客的《2018年楼市总结》数据显示，一线城市房价在2018年整体缓涨，深圳房价平稳下降。

房价两次不同的走势，主要是政策的不同，对于1月4日的降准，央行也做了定调，此次降准为定向调控，并非大水漫灌，稳健的货币政策取向没有改变。

而在楼市政策方面，根据中央经济工作会议的部署，仍要坚持房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的定位，同时也强调“因城施策、分类指导，夯实城市政府主体责任”。

事实上，降准在一定程度上是利好按揭房贷下调的，从去年10月份开始，部分城市的房贷利率便有所松动，这利于刚需用户。对于房企而言，此次全面降准并未明确限定资金流向，可改善房企现金流紧绷的状态，头部房企将从中受益，一二线的土地市场有望逐步升温。

因此，在当前的经济形式及楼市政策下，房地产更大的可能性是回落后保持稳定或温和上涨，像之前的猛涨是不可能了，这就是住房不炒。

按周期天王周金涛的“康波周期”来看，房地产周期20年一轮回，15年上涨，5年下降，本轮房地产周期从1999年开启，2019年触底。

Happiness Biotech Group Limited's is so sudden!

As the national manufacturing PMI index fell to 49.4% below the boom line in December 2018, the lowest since March 2016, the deterioration in the manufacturing sector caused market concern, causing A shares and Hong Kong stocks to be "open green" in 2019, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1% and the Hang Seng Index down 2.77%. The market is "cloudy".

Just yesterday, the central bank announced that in order to further support the development of the real economy, optimize the liquidity structure and reduce financing costs, the people's Bank of China decided to cut the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 1 percentage point in exchange for some medium-term lending facilities.

On the news, the stock market rose on hearing the wind. The Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 2%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.24%. The central bank threw a wave of "red envelopes" for the market. However, how big the "welfare" this time is and how long it can last is the next focus.

Is there a good chance that the stock market will rise in four trading days next week?

To this end, Zhitong Financial APP collated statistics on the basic situation of previous RRR cuts and the impact of RRR cuts on the Hang Seng Index in different periods of time, in order to explore the secret of RRR reductions to the stock market.

周一.png

Since the financial crisis in 2008, it has been reduced 17 times, of which the largest number of reductions was five in 2015, and four were implemented in 2018. Naturally, the number of reductions this year will not be too small.

Ren Zeping of Evergrande Research Institute said that at present, the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, the signs of deflation are obvious, the risk appetite of financial institutions is still low, and there is plenty of room for reserve requirement cuts in 2019. Does this mean that there are still three "red packets" to grab this year? Not exactly!

According to the statistical data, the probability of the rise of the Hang Seng Index is 37.5% the day after the RRR reduction is announced. Within five trading days, the probability of the HSI rising is 43.75%. Within one month of the RRR reduction, the probability of HSI rising has dropped to 37.5%.

To put it simply, reserve ratio cuts do not always boost the stock market, because they are designed to deal with liquidity constraints and hedging risks, and the economy is not so sound at this time, so in such a short period of time, the stock market is more likely to be on a downward trend.

But it's worth noting thatIf the Hang Seng Index rises the day after the RRR cut is announced, it is more likely that the Hang Seng Index will continue to rise in the next five trading days.Taking historical data as an example, the Hang Seng Index rose six times the day after the cut, five of which continued to rise over the next five trading days, with a probability of 83.33%.

If the time is extended to one month, even if the Hang Seng Index rises the day after the RRR cut is announced, the subsequent performance also weakens. It rises the day after the RRR cut is announced, continues to rise in five trading days, and continues to rise only twice a month, and the probability of rising is reduced to 33.33%.

Therefore, if you do not consider other factors, only from a statistical point of view, the January 4 cut was announced in intraday trading (previously mostly announced on the weekend), which can be understood as a rise the day after the announcement, then, for the remaining four trading days next week, the probability of the Hang Seng Index strengthening as a whole is 83.33%.

There may be 3-4 reserve cuts this year?

The short-term change of the reserve ratio cut on the stock market is worth considering, but the long-term and macro impact is more worth thinking about.

Excluding the January 4 RRR cut, China has made a total of 16 RRR cuts since the 2008 financial crisis, mainly in 2008, 2015 and 2018. The number of RRR reductions in these three years is 3, 5 and 4, respectively. And these three years have common characteristics, that is, the stock market is "thin". Take the Hang Seng Index as an example, it fell 48.27% in 2008, and the Hang Seng Index rose and fell back in 2015. The largest decline for the year was 28.09%, and it also went up and down in 2018, with the largest decline of 26.7%.

In 2008 and 2015, after cutting reserve requirements to stimulate the economy, the stock market improved the following year. The Hang Seng Index rose 52.02% in 2009. Although the Hang Seng Index did not rebound significantly in 2016, it recorded a weak increase of 0.39% for the whole year, and in these two years, the number of RRR reductions decreased significantly, with 0 RRR cuts in 2009 and 1 RRR cut in 2016, indicating that the economy had picked up that year and there was no need to lower or lower the number of RRR cuts.

However, after the implementation of four RRR cuts in 2018, the number of RRR cuts in 2019 may not be reduced, because according to the incomplete statistics of Zhitong Financial APP, Evergrande Research Institute, Ping an Securities, Tianfeng Securities and China China Minsheng Banking Corp have all said that there will be 3-4 RRR cuts this year, and some brokerage institutions believe that not only will there be a RRR cut, but also that there may be a comprehensive interest rate cut.

Thus it can be seen that the economic trend in 2019 is not so optimistic, as investors should be prepared.

Real estate bottomed out?

In addition to the stock market, the impact of the RRR cut on the property market is also a hot topic of public discussion. after all, most people have a deep understanding of the powerlessness of wages "unable to run away" housing prices. Excluding this time, there have been four 1 percentage point cuts since the 2008 financial crisis, namely in 2008, 2015 and 2018.

The cut in 2008 was mainly in response to the international financial crisis, and the 1 percentage point cut in 2015 was the strongest reduction in six years since the financial crisis. The launch of the cut is due to downward pressure on the economy because GDP growth shrank to 7 per cent in the first quarter of 2015, compared with 7.3 per cent in 2014.

In 2015, the property market, in the context of destocking, supported rigid demand and improved demand, and the policy tone was relatively loose. After the RRR cut, China's property market as a whole continued to recover. At the end of 2015, house prices rose 47.5% in Shenzhen, 18.2% in Shanghai, 10.4% in Beijing and 9.2% in Guangzhou.

The two one-percentage-point RRR cuts in 2018 highlight the urgency of the market to adjust, the downward pressure on the economy is greater, and after the interest rate hike cycle in the United States, the liquidity of market funds has gradually shrunk, and the financing problem of small enterprises has become increasingly prominent.

The implementation of the four reserve requirement cuts in 2018 is not small, but unlike in 2015, the property market in 2018 has cooled down under more than 400 policy controls, and the growth rate of property market sales has slowed down. According to Anjuke's "2018 property Market Summary" data, housing prices in first-tier cities rose slowly in 2018 as a whole, while prices in Shenzhen declined steadily.

The two different trends of house prices are mainly due to different policies. the central bank also set the tone for the January 4 reserve cut, which is targeted regulation and control, not flooding, and the prudent monetary policy orientation has not changed.

In terms of property market policy, according to the arrangements of the Central Economic work Conference, we should still insist that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and at the same time emphasize "implementing policies and classified guidance according to the city, and tamping the main responsibility of the city government."

In fact, the RRR cut is good for mortgage loans to some extent, and mortgage interest rates in some cities have loosened since October last year, which is good for users with rigid demand. For housing enterprises, the comprehensive cut does not clearly limit the flow of funds, which can improve the tight cash flow of housing enterprises, from which the head housing enterprises will benefit, and the first-and second-tier land market is expected to gradually heat up.

Therefore, under the current economic situation and property market policy, real estate is more likely to maintain a stable or moderate rise after a decline, such as the previous surge is impossible, that is, there is no housing speculation.

According to the cycle King Zhou Jintao's "Kangbo cycle", the real estate cycle has a 20-year cycle, rising in 15 years and declining in 5 years. The current real estate cycle started in 1999 and bottomed out in 2019.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

我们用16次降准历史，推演出下周恒指将有4天“牛市”