Saudi Arabia will base its revenue forecast for 2023 on the basis that international oil prices remain at 76 US dollars per barrel, which is lower than market expectations.

In a preliminary budget statement on Friday, the Saudi Ministry of Finance said it expected Saudi revenue of 1.12 trillion rials ($298 billion) next year, up from a previous estimate of 9680 billion rials, and a budget surplus of 9 billion rials, lower than previous estimates. The Saudi finance minister said in a statement that the Ministry of Finance's "budget estimates of oil and non-oil revenues are based on conservative criteria to reflect any possible developments in the domestic and global economy".

According to the calculation of investment bank Al Rajhi Capital, Saudi Arabia's oil revenue may reach 754 billion rials in 2023, while non-oil revenues may reach 417 billion rials. This means that Saudi Arabia's budget revenue for next year may be based on the assumption that Brent crude oil is $76 a barrel.

Based on past experience, when setting budgets, Saudi Arabia tends to take a relatively conservative view of crude oil prices and does not disclose its assumptions. The assumption of $76 / barrel is significantly lower than the $94.63 / barrel expected by market analysts, but in line with the current forward price of crude oil on the market.

Affected by concerns about a potential recession, international oil prices have fallen by more than 20% since the third quarter, and concerns about the continued downturn in global energy demand are growing. The continued surge in the dollar has also made dollar-denominated commodities less attractive to investors.

UBS believes OPEC+ needs to cut oil production by at least 500000 barrels a day to stem the current decline. Christan Malek, head of global energy at JPMorgan Chase & Co, said it might be necessary for OPEC+ to cut production by up to 1 million b / d to "curb the downward momentum of oil prices".

Media previously reported that OPEC+ will discuss oil production cuts at its meeting on October 5 in order to contain the recent collapse in oil prices, and the exact scale of the production cuts is still under discussion. Russia is pushing for a plan to cut oil production by 1 million barrels a day.