Saudi Arabia expects Brent crude to be about $76 a barrel next year, in line with current forward prices but far more pessimistic than analysts' expectations, according to Al Raji Capital, a local investment bank.

It is understood that on Friday, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Finance said in a preliminary budget statement that it expected its revenue to reach 1.12 trillion rials ($298 billion) next year, higher than the 968 billion rials forecast announced in December. In addition, the Ministry of Finance envisages a budget surplus of 9 billion rials, which is lower than the previous estimate.

Mazen Al Sudairi, head of research at Al Rajhi Capital, a local investment bank, said: "in 2023, we expect oil revenue to reach 754 billion rials and non-oil revenues to reach 417 billion rials. According to our assessment, the Saudi government's budget revenue for 2023 may be based on the assumption that the price of Brent crude is around $76 a barrel. "

According to the basic situation, Saudi Arabia's total revenue in 2023 is expected to fall by 8.1% compared with this year. The finance ministry said its "budget estimates of oil and non-oil revenues are based on conservative criteria to predict any possible developments in the domestic and global economy."

In addition, the government listed scenarios in which government revenue increased or decreased, but did not explain how it met these assumptions.

As a result, Saudi Arabia tends to take a relatively conservative view of the price of crude oil and does not divulge its assumptions. By contrast, Brent crude will hit $94.63 a barrel next year, according to the median forecast by Bloomberg analysts.

It is understood that the price of Brent crude oil has fallen from this year's high. As of press time, Brent crude oil futures fell 1.86% to 85.56 US dollars per barrel.

It is worth mentioning that OPEC +, with Saudi Arabia as a key member, is facing increasing calls to curb the decline in oil prices through further production cuts.

Earlier this month, OPEC announced symbolic production cuts to show its willingness to stabilise the oil market, and has discussed further production cuts ahead of its October 5 meeting to decide on its next move, according to people familiar with the matter.