Global macro

• Before Friday's trading, the monthly rate of the core PCE price index in the United States in August was slightly higher than expected, and the three major indexes fluctuated.

Dow futures fell 0.01%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.01%.

In the United States, the core PCE price index rose 4.9% in August from a year earlier and is expected to be 4.70%, compared with a previous value of 4.60%. In the United States, the core PCE price index rose 0.6% month-on-month in August and is expected to be 0.50%, compared with a previous value of 0.10%.

• The Fed's favorite indicator of inflation is coming tonight! Or guide the expectation of raising interest rates next.

PCE, the core of the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, will be released tonight (20:30 Beijing time), after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that the PCE index is a better measure because it more accurately reflects the inflation that people actually face in life. Nomura predicts that core PCE0.5% growth in August may be too high, well above the 0.25 per cent level, which may force the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes, but not as strong inflationary pressures as August's CPI data suggest. As of press time, the market's forecast for an interest rate hike of 50 basis points in November is 42.5% and that of a 75 basis point increase is 57.5%.

• The oversold degree of US stocks has exceeded the epidemic situation of COVID-19, Goldman Sachs Group: the pain is not over yet.

Has the US stock market fallen to the bottom? In the eyes of Goldman Sachs Group trader Matt Fleury, obviously not. He believes that although the US stock market is extremely oversold and has even exceeded the situation in March 2020 when the COVID-19 epidemic broke out in the United States, the proportion of stocks in a number of indices whose share prices are higher than the 50-day moving average is still "astonishingly low." and may continue to decline. According to him, as US stocks continue to be sold off, it will be hard to find support for the next US stock crash. in other words, trading volumes will still fall and no one will be willing to "take over" when US stocks fall. In addition, insufficient demand for put options will lead to high prices of such derivatives. In addition, he also believes that the Federal Reserve may not help U. S. stocks this time.

• A strong dollar hurts most American companies, and sales are at risk of shrinking

The sharp rise in the dollar is not only a global problem, but also put further pressure on US corporate profits in the third quarter. Since the beginning of this year, the Fed has raised interest rates sharply, leading to a rise in Treasury yields, investors have flocked to the US "safe haven" amid fears of a global economic slowdown, and the dollar has been in a rising cycle. This creates trouble for American companies that derive a large portion of their sales from overseas. As the dollar strengthens, these companies shrink when they denominate overseas income in dollars. Ohsung Kwon, US equity strategist at Bank of America Securities, said: "the strong dollar is a real headwind factor that will have a bigger impact on US corporate earnings than in the second quarter."

• The "darkest hour" hasn't come yet? Director of IEA: natural gas supplies will be more tight in 2023

Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said on Thursday that natural gas supplies would be more tight next year because of the apparent sabotage of the Beixi pipeline. "We are likely to see that the LNG market in 2023 will be quite tight, perhaps even more tense than this year. If China's economy fully recovers. It will be difficult for Europe to attract so much liquefied natural gas. "he said. Mr Birol's warning comes at a time when Europe faces a major energy supply crisis this winter after Russia cut off gas supplies to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. This week, with the leakage of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, natural gas supplies in Europe are under new pressure.

• The chip "won't sell"? South Korean chip production fell for the first time in four years, with shipments falling for two months in a row

South Korean semiconductor production fell for the first time in more than four years, indicating that chipmakers are gradually adapting to a slowdown in global demand, according to data released by the Korean Bureau of Statistics on Friday. South Korean semiconductor production fell 1.7 per cent in August from a year earlier, a sharp reversal from the 17.3 per cent increase in July, according to the Bureau of Statistics. For the first time since January 2018. Demand for electronics, one of the drivers of economic growth, has cooled significantly recently, the global economy is deteriorating and heading into recession, and semiconductor manufacturers are preparing for a slowdown in demand.

• Worried about "broken uranium", the US Secretary of Energy: give up Russian nuclear fuel as soon as possible!

As Russia dominates the global nuclear fuel market and controls about 1/4 of the nuclear fuel supply in the United States, the United States has to make plans in advance. The Biden administration is trying to wean the United States off its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel supplies, local media reported on Thursday. U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Glenhom says the Biden administration is trying to break America's dependence on Russian nuclear fuel and to improve its domestic uranium enrichment capacity. These ideas may be reflected in the key legislation to be introduced in the United States.

Hot news

• Star science and technology stocks were mixed before trading.

• Apple Inc is no longer a "safe haven"? Bank of America downgraded to "neutral" and cut its target price by 14%

According to reports, due to concerns about weak consumer demand,$Bank of America (BAC.US)$In the latest report, it was downgraded to$Apple (AAPL.US)$The stock rating. According to the report, BofA analysts led by Wamsi Mohan downgraded Apple Inc from "buy" to "neutral", cut the target price by about 14% from $185 to $160, and lowered Apple Inc's performance forecast for fiscal year 2023. As of press time, Apple Inc was down 0.39% before trading.

• The clearest statement so far! Zuckerberg announces that Meta will freeze recruitment and give priority to cost reduction.

Facebook Inc parent company$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Hiring will be frozen and some teams will be reorganized to cut costs and refocus, it was announced on Thursday. Zuckerberg, chief executive of Meta, announced the decision at a weekly question and answer session. The announcement is arguably the company's clearest statement: Meta will further cut costs and freeze hiring at a time when competition is increasingly fierce and advertising revenue is slowing.

• "chill" to Google cloud game: Stadia is about to shut down, technology "soul" will still be preserved.

Thursday local time$Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$Acknowledging the failure of its attempt to reshape the gaming industry around cloud computing, the company will shut down its cloud gaming service Stadia early next year to further cut costs and save money. According to the official page, the Stadia server will be shut down on January 18. The company promises to provide refunds for all hardware, games and add-ons that players buy through the Stadia store. Phil Harrison, head of Stadia, admitted that although Stadia streaming game technology has a strong foundation, it does not meet the company's expectations in terms of user attractiveness.

• Micron Technology Inc rose more than 1% before trading, and his profit in the fourth quarter exceeded expectations.

Thursday US Eastern time$Micron Technology (MU.US)$A dismal forecast was published. Even more bleak than the results are its pessimistic expectations for the next quarter. Meguiar CEO bluntly said that chip orders from customers in various industries are decreasing. Micron, the largest memory chip maker in the US, is pessimistic about the outlook for chip demand, which epitomizes the pessimism of the entire consumer electronics chip industry. As of press time, Micron Technology Inc rose 1.24% to US $50.63.

• Nike Inc fell nearly 11% before trading, while North American inventory soared by 65%. Clearing inventory will lead to a further decline in Q2 gross profit margin.

$Nike (NKE.US)$It fell 11% to $85.06 before trading. The company's first-quarter revenue was $12.69 billion, higher than the expected $12.31 billion; earnings per share was $0.93, higher than the expected $0.92; gross profit margin fell 220bp to 44.3%, below market expectations of 45.4%. This is mainly due to the increase in freight and logistics costs, the increase in the price reduction of Nike Inc's direct selling business and exchange rate changes. The company said that North American inventory increased by 65%, is taking "decisive action" to clean up inventory, expects the company's gross margin for the current fiscal year to be "temporarily affected", and expects the gross margin to fall by 350-400 basis points in the second quarter.

• Buffett has a heavy position in Western Oil, Xiaomo: investors should not just copy the homework, the intention of the stock god is unknown.

Warren Buffett, the "god of stock", bought more this week.$Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US)$After that, its share price continued to outperform its peers and the market. Western oil performed well on Thursday, closing up 1.14% at $62.11, compared with a drop of about 1% for international crude oil futures and more than 2% for the s & p 500 index. But at the same time, JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts warned investors not to follow just because of the purchase of the stock god, and pointed out that the stock has limited room to rise, and Buffett's move could repeat the mistake of the failed bet on ConocoPhillips in 2008.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• Hot Chinese stocks fluctuated before the session.

• Morgan Stanley lowered the target price of BABA by 21% to US $110, maintaining its over-matching rating.

Morgan Stanley will$Alibaba (BABA.US)$The target price was cut by 21 per cent to $110, maintaining an overrated rating; customer management revenue is expected to fall 4 per cent in the second quarter from a year earlier, calling the non-GAAP price-to-earnings ratio of 10 times 2023 "attractive".

• Ideal One replacement model ideal L8 on the market

$Li Auto (LI.US)$L8 conference held today, as the "receiver" of the ideal ONE, the ideal L8 debut is also listed at the same time. L8 has launched two models, the L8 Pro and the L8 Max, priced at 359800 yuan and 399800 yuan respectively. The new car will be ordered immediately and will be officially delivered in early November.

• KE Holdings Inc. bought back about 184000 shares on the New York Stock Exchange on September 29th, at a cost of about $1 million.

$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$The company bought back about 184000 shares on the New York Stock Exchange at a cost of about $1 million, with a maximum transaction price of $5.50 per share and a minimum transaction price of $5.31 per share, according to an announcement issued by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Reminder of the macro calendar of US stocks

September thirtieth

20:30 US Core PCE Price Index monthly rate, US Core PCE Price Index annualized rate

21:00 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard delivered a speech on financial stability

21:45 PMI in Chicago, USA

22:00 final value of the University of Michigan Consumer confidence Index

October first

00:30 2024 Balkin, chairman of the Richmond Federal Reserve and FOMC voting committee, spoke on the drivers of inflation

03:30 the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases its weekly position report

04:15 Williams, chairman of the FOMC permanent vote Committee and New York Federal Reserve, delivered a speech on financial stability.