Main points of investment:
The company is a leading company in the fine fluorine chemical industry, with business spanning the three major fields of lithium materials, medicine and pesticides. The company makes great efforts to develop lithium business and is expected to create a new performance growth curve.
Deep ploughing in the field of fine fluorine chemical industry, lithium electricity business helps the company to develop rapidly in the field of fine fluorine chemical industry for many years, successively opening up the business of medicine, pesticides and lithium materials.
2022H1 realized operating income of 3.317 billion yuan, an increase of 67.85% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 494 million yuan, an increase of 417.95% over the same period last year, of which the revenue share of trade, medicine, pesticide and lithium battery business was 36.36%, 22.58%, 5.64% and 30.42%, respectively. With the continuous landing of related production capacity, lithium power business is expected to contribute higher performance increments in the future.
Integrated layout of electrolyte to improve the profitability of the company
With the high prosperity downstream, the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate remains high, and the amount of superimposed difluorosulfonimide lithium increases, and the electrolyte is expected to rise in volume and price. The integrated layout of the company's electrolyte may become the key to improve future profitability. Self-supply of lithium salts and additives can effectively improve the gross profit margin of the electrolyte. According to our calculation, the gross profit margin of the electrolyte can be increased respectively by purchasing all the raw materials under the condition of six C fluorine, EC lithium phosphate and double fluorine than sulfonyl 1 100 amine% lithium in the electrolyte.
Expand production and superimpose the long-term Association to create a new performance curve
The company makes great efforts to expand the production capacity of electrolytes, lithium salts and additives, and ensures product shipments by signing long-term supply agreements with high-quality customers. The company's lithium salt and additive products can be self-supplied, which improves the profitability of electrolyte products. The improvement of lithium business shipments and strong cost advantages are expected to provide major performance increments for the company.
Earnings forecast, valuation and rating
We estimate that the company's operating income from 2022 to 2024 will be 79.07 yuan 170.91 / 22.284 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 76.95%, 116.15%, 30.38%, and 3-year CAGR of 70.85%. The net profit of homing is RMB 10.45, 20.93, 2.708 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 272.83%, 100.25%, 29.39%, 112.97%, 1.19, 2.39, 3.09 and 7.51 times of PE, respectively, respectively. Through the absolute valuation method, the reasonable price per share is 50.96 yuan. Combined with the relative valuation of the comparable company, we give the company 22 times PE in 23 years, corresponding to the target price of 52.58 yuan, covering for the first time and giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: downstream demand is not as expected, production expansion is not as expected, and industry competition aggravates the risk.