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东方集团(600811):海水提钾空间广阔 植物肉业务前景向好

Oriental Group (600811): There is broad space to extract potassium from seawater, and the prospects for the plant-based meat business are improving

西南證券 ·  Sep 27, 2022 00:00  · Researches

Investment logic: 1) the company develops the research on the technology of extracting potassium and bromine from seawater and its industrialization, and plans to put into production the first phase of 200000 tons of seawater to extract potassium chloride in 23 years; 2) the plant meat will have a market space of 10 billion yuan in the future. the transformation to low-carbon environmental protection promotes the replacement of traditional meat products, and the company is ahead of schedule in layout technology. 3) the rapid growth of organic rice market promotes the processing enthusiasm of enterprises, and the price of oil and soybean raw materials helps to improve the profitability of the company.

There is a gap between supply and demand of potash fertilizer, the company carries on the research of extracting potassium from seawater and the layout of industrialization, and the prospect is good. Potash as an agricultural fertilizer with potassium as the main component, internationally, the supply gap of potash is deepening and prices are rising rapidly. under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States decided to remove some Russian banks from SWIFT. At the same time, in March 2022, Russia announced a temporary suspension of chemical fertilizer exports. Russia and its ally Belarus accounted for 40% of global potash exports, resulting in tight global supply and demand. On the other hand, domestic potash prices are high and potassium chloride stocks are low. As of August 18, 2022, the market prices of 60% powdered potassium in Qinghai and Shandong were 4750 yuan / ton and 4700 yuan / ton respectively, up 1000 yuan / ton and 950 yuan / ton respectively compared with the beginning of the year. The company's R & D team innovated the "zeolite ion seawater extraction of potash fertilizer efficient and energy-saving technology" with original independent intellectual property rights, and the technical achievements reached the international leading level. Xiamen Dongfang Yinxiang Oil Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of the company, signed a "technical development contract" for the 200,000 t / a potassium chloride extraction project with Hebei University of Technology and Professor Yuan Junsheng's team. The project is scheduled to start construction in the second half of 2022 and put into production in 2023. The company has made a key breakthrough in the core technology of potassium ion seawater separation. At present, the pilot production capacity of potassium ammonium chloride is 50 kg / day or potassium chloride 25 kg / day. The tested items of potassium chloride samples extracted from seawater meet the requirements of GB/T37918-2019 "Fertilizer Grade potassium Chloride" and reach the powder crystalline Ⅰ level.

Accelerate the layout of plant meat market, grasp the broad growth space, the company's food food has formed a series of international advanced level of plant-based protein products. According to the report on the Market Research and Future Development trend of China's Plant Meat Industry from 2022 to 2027, the compound growth rate of China's plant-based meat market is 26.4% from 2018 to 2020. according to Markets and Markets, the global plant meat market will reach US $27.9 billion in 2025, and the Chinese market is also developing rapidly. Fucai is planted with self-developed protein texture recombination technology, technology and equipment, using twin-screw high moisture extrusion technology to form three fine production links of texture recombination-black box technology-plastic cooling, and reshape the structure of raw material protein. The average moisture content of high moisture plant meat produced is about 65%, up to 70%, which is much higher than the average water content of 35% of most plant meat in the market. The product is more flexible, resilient and chewy. The company plans to invest a total of 160 million yuan and continue to invest in research and development and expand production capacity in the future, and is expected to have more than 100 plant meat products production capacity by the end of 2022.

The cost of grease may fall, the profit space will be enhanced, and the processing cost of enterprises will be effectively controlled. From the perspective of supply and demand fundamentals, according to USDA data, global rapeseed production will reach 83.144 million tons, an increase of 9.278 million tons or 12.6 percent over the same period last year. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, an increase of 6.243 million tons over the same period last year. The tight supply of rapeseed will be significantly improved, and prices may go down. In terms of oil processing technology, Dongfang Yinxiang Oil has the exclusive use right of rapeseed industrial peeling technology freely authorized by Xiamen Yinxiang Oil Co., Ltd., and has the mature technical skills of rapeseed peeling processing. In recent years, Yinxiang bean products have always adhered to the "one body and two wings" development strategy with the processing of fresh bean products as the main body and the series of dried tofu products and frozen bean products as the two wings. The new fried tofu project in 2022 will further extend the yuba industry chain. In rice processing, the company has established a perfect rice processing and sales system with close links in planting, purchasing, processing and sales, and established its own green organic oriental fragrant rice production base. improve the competitiveness of enterprises under the high growth rate of China's organic rice market.

Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 is 0.03,0.18,0.29 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE from 22 to 24 is 98X/14X/9X. With reference to the average PE20 times of the same industry in 2023, and considering that the company is actively developing the plate of extracting potassium from seawater and plant meat, with a broad future growth space, the company will be given 20 times PE in 2023 and a "buy" rating with a target price of 3.60 yuan.

Risk tips: extreme weather, capacity schedule is not as expected, raw material costs are higher, R & D is not as expected, and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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