Summary:
New Oriental Education & Technology Group online actively adjusts its business structure, shifting its strategic focus to live e-commerce business, supplemented by university education and institutional business. The company's "Agricultural products Company" has a clear positioning, and after the Oriental selection studio sales broke out in mid-early June, outdoor live broadcast and the launch of self-made products have become the main stimulating factors at present. Oriental selection actively build their own brands, there is still a large profit space. Outdoor live broadcast to help farmers spread local culture, optimistic about the ability to create their own "shopping festival".
Core content:
1. Train pioneers to break their wrists, and live e-commerce is a blockbuster. The company adjusts its business decisively, the three main lines of live e-commerce, university education and institutional business are clear, university education and institutional customer business are stable, and there are marginal opportunities for improvement. The company's "agricultural products company" has a clear positioning, and its own agricultural products are newly driving the local economy. The sales of Oriental selection studio broke out in mid-early June and entered a relatively steady state after the outbreak period. Outdoor live broadcast and the launch of self-made products became the main stimulating factors. The matrix of the studio has been rolled out steadily, and the "Oriental selection" has been branded.
2. Analysis of the basic situation of the industry. At present, live e-commerce is becoming more and more mature, and there is a broad space for the industry. according to the data of iResearch Consulting, the market size of live e-commerce is expected to reach 4.91 trillion yuan by 2023. Douyin platform has a strong centralization ability and a high proportion of public domain traffic. Talent or professional institutions can help brands start quantity quickly, and brand self-broadcasting has gradually become a consensus. Douyin brings goods in various forms, and content + selection is the key to long-term success. New Oriental Education & Technology Group has an advantage online. Policy regulation + mental change of users, pan-knowledge content is in the ascendant, Oriental selection studio "knowledge with goods" conforms to the trend.
3. The competitive advantage is outstanding and the core barrier is stable. Years of accumulation to shape brand awareness, a strong sense of customer identity, direct broadcast of agricultural products with goods pain points for a long time, self-management is scarce, so New Oriental Education & Technology Group online has an advantage. Douyin upgrade the development of global interest e-commerce development direction, focus on pan-knowledge content, Oriental selection plays a complementary role in this plate, in line with the development direction of Douyin platform, will not "break up" in the short term. Oriental selection and its live studio is a collection of new models, which can be reproduced weakly. Invited guests include celebrities in the cultural and entertainment industry, achieving a win-win situation between live room traffic and guest publicity needs, various live content forms, and program-oriented live broadcast design. The company does not buy quantity, the anchor does not take a cut, and the cost is properly controlled.
4. there is a broad space for development in the future. Oriental selection actively build self-supporting brand, the proportion of self-operated products is increased, and the price advantage is highlighted. Considering that the self-made products are restricted by the supply chain, there is still a large profit space. Three-dimensional sales platform is built, and vertical live broadcast matrix carries multi-category sales. Outdoor live broadcast to help farmers spread local culture, optimistic about the ability to create their own "shopping festival". With hierarchical matrix training, the problem of anchor dependence is expected to be optimized.
We expect FY2023-FY2025 to achieve a neutral conservative revenue of 26.39pm 41.29 / 5.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.29max 7.16 / 865 million yuan, corresponding to a PE of 50.8max 37.6max 31.1, giving the company a "highly recommended" rating.
