Interest rates have risen sharply around the world, stock markets have plummeted, and many previously high-end sectors, such as photovoltaic, electric cars and lithium batteries, have now fallen into dogs.

Although the overall market is not good, there is still a structural market.

such asConsumption。

Today, among the plate gains of A shares, consumption-related sectors dominate the list, with catering, tourism, snack food, food and beverages and other optional consumption firmly in the front.

Just today, Beixiang Capital bought a net of 3.272 billion yuan today. Among them, Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai and Oriental Wealth bought 637 million yuan, 554 million yuan and 191 million yuan respectively. In the Ningde era, net sales topped the list, with an amount of 466 million yuan.

Some smart funds, such as northbound funds, have also been buying recently, and their logic is to see that the market wind is returning from growth stocks to consumer stocks, so they are laid out in advance.

Consumer stocks, in the specular return.

01

Several key positive factors

Recently, a large number of star stocks in the consumer industry have shown signs of starting, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye.

Today, more and more consumer stocks are trading, including quality stores, Huatian Hotel, Xi'an Food, Lijiang shares, Lanzhou Yellow River, Sunshine Dairy and so on.

Taken together, the increase in food, drink, use and play is all good. It can be said that the consumer sector, which has been depressed for so long, has really ushered in a recovery.

In fact, the reason for the rise of consumer stocks is very simple.

First of all,Pre-nodal effect. A few days later is the National Day Golden week. This holiday has always been the most prosperous consumption season. For residents who have been plagued by the epidemic for almost a year, it is time to go out and have fun. What's more, now that the epidemic has improved, the risk is decreasing, and people come out to play, and there is less concern. After the National Day Golden week, there is also a national entertainment program-the World Cup-in November.

Second, there is another positive for consumer stocks: oil, steel, aluminum, agricultural products, glass, paper and so on since the second quarter.Commodity raw material prices have moved into a downward cycle.For example, the international price of crude oil has fallen from more than US $120 in June to the current US $80, a drop of more than 30%. In the same period, basic materials such as glass futures and rebar also fell by more than 30%, and non-ferrous materials such as copper and aluminum also fell by more than 20%. For consumer goods companies that have long been beholden to high raw material prices, the pressure on the cost side is falling, helping to boost their profits.

Third,It's an expectation of the future.Consumer goods companies are more affected by the epidemic, but with the improvement of the epidemic in the mainland and the relaxation of epidemic prevention measures in Hong Kong, the market is optimistic that the epidemic will continue to improve in the future.

Over the past year or so, consumer stocks have been in the doldrums, and to make matters worse, the market is pessimistic about consumer stocks. Even though many people have repeatedly stressed that consumption is the only way to stimulate economic growth after the retreat of real estate, infrastructure and exports, the result is not as strong as they expected.

However, market expectations will also change at any time as the situation changes. Although there is still macroeconomic pressure and the global liquidity contraction is not over, specific to the consumer sector, after more than a year of adjustment, overall valuations are already in a relatively low position.

At this time, if growth expectations improve, there is a good chance that the market will re-embrace such sectors.

Return to the most fundamental factor--PerformanceWe can see that the factors of epidemic situation and cost are all reducing marginally, and consumer goods companies that have been suppressed by these two factors for a long time, regardless of revenue, cost, and profit, will usher in opportunities for improvement, thus entering the stage of valuation and repair.

There is another big factor.It's the capital side.. Now that growth stocks are in a continuous pullback, a large number of outflows of funds also need to look for new investment directions. Consumer stock fundamentals, competition pattern, profitability, investment logic are relatively clear, and in a clear marginal improvement, so it will be one of the easiest directions to attract capital layout.

02

What exactly?

First of all, we have to make it clear that the above trends are difficult to change in the short term, especially the recovery after the epidemic and the decline in the cost of raw materials will continue to bring positive benefits to the consumer industry. at the same time, the complex environment forces funds to avoid growth sectors with high valuations and many uncertainties, which may jump repeatedly, but eventually choose consumer sectors with rigid demand and better conditions to avoid risks.

From the perspective of data verification, the recent trend of the whole big consumer sector is better than other sectors, even some industries closely related to macroeconomic and epidemic, such as real estate, tourism, electricity and so on, perform better than other growth and popular tracks.

Among them, the food and beverage sector is the only one in all first-tier industries to maintain a 5-day rise, which is enough to explain the direction of capital choice.

Based on this, it can be judged that in large consumption, in addition to the expected repair of the tourism economy, food and beverage is likely to be a rising consensus for some time in the future.

Therefore, there is a good reason for the surge in today's processed food, beverage and white beer.

If you choose from several dimensions, such as capital capacity, performance robustness, valuation level, etc., the following segments may become the main force in the future rebound:

Spirit:According to the data from the research feedback of many institutions, although the wholesale price of high-end liquor fell before and after the Mid-Autumn Festival, Maotai has stabilized and consumption has rebounded, and the pre-Maowu sales volume has been basically completed. the progress of delivery and payment is mostly more than 90%, and even the target for the whole year has been basically completed, which means that the achievement of this year's performance target has been fully guaranteed. It is said that the annual quota of the old cellar has been completely suspended, and some market channels are still making payments before the festival, and the demand is better than expected, and the situation of the regional leader Gujing and Yanghe is similar. In this life, the progress of payment before the festival is 70%, and the pace of delivery is accelerated.

However, the performance of the sub-high end is slightly weaker. Fenjiu expects the pre-festival progress to be about 85%, 90%, 70%, 80%, and less than 70%.

Therefore, on the whole, although the spirit of Golden week is under pressure, the overall trend is changing for the better, and local consumption promotion policies continue to promote. If there are no more epidemic factors in the middle, I believe that the performance of this Golden week will be even better.

Beer:Beer, as an industry more affected by fluctuations in raw material costs (the main costs are glass, aluminum, packaging paper, grain, etc.), has been affected by the double pressure of downward sales caused by rising raw material costs and the impact of the epidemic in the past year, but we can also see that continuous price increases in the middle have hedged most of the adverse effects. Therefore, we can see that the gross profit margin of the beer industry in the second quarter has shown a upward trend again.

After the second quarter, except for barley and wrapping paper, the prices of commodity materials such as glass and aluminum fell further, while consumption picked up after the superimposed epidemics, especially during the peak beer season brought about by the National Day holiday and the World Cup feast in November, the beer industry is likely to enjoy the opportunity of "falling costs + rising sales".

At the same time, the beer industry has experienced a previous pullback, which also provides room for a subsequent rebound. From the observation in recent months in the third quarter, the mobile sales of beer is strengthening, and the Beta in the fourth quarter may have a bright performance.

Other drinks:The logic is similar to that of beer, but as many of these segments are in a very poor competitive environment, the extent of improvement is actually not great, but now the trading mood in the market is in the mood, and the rain and dew are all tainted with the dividend of ascension to heaven.

However, some unique tracks are still good, such as Dongpeng Beverage, which makes energy drinks, which is the only leader in soft drinks with double-digit revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year, according to the current valuation of about 45 times. Combined with the performance expectations of the second half of the year, the performance-to-price ratio is also gradually reflected.

Seasoning:In the first half of the year, the revenue and return net profit of the condiment industry was 229.3 / 4.33 billion yuan, with an increase of 10.1% and 4.0%. The profit growth rate was also related to the increase in raw material costs and offline consumption affected by the epidemic. At present, the price of soybeans and other products has not dropped much, and the actual price adjustment of condiments is more obvious. after soybean prices fell slightly and offline consumption picked up in the second half of the year, the price increase effect has begun to appear.

At the same time, in the first half of the year, condiments have made great efforts to reform channels and reduce market fees in order to cope with the pressure on performance, and the profitability of the industry is expected to improve month-on-month. This trend is expected to strengthen further in the third quarter.

Processed food category:Including leisure, quick-frozen, prepared dishes and so on. The reversal logic is basically the same as above. In the past two years, a large number of such enterprises have been cleared. On the contrary, the leader can take advantage of this industry cost decline and its own advantages to continuously increase the market share, driving the profit end to take the lead to rebound.

Take Anjing Food, the leader of frozen food, as an example. 2022H1's revenue and profit grew by more than 30% compared with the same period last year. In particular, revenue reached 2.936 billion yuan in the second quarter, up 46.07% from the same period last year, and the month-on-month growth rate began to strengthen.

In fact, prefabricated food is also a new track of recent development, Anjing Food's prefabricated food has also begun to sell, and the layout of other leaders in the frozen food industry is also very strong, under the contraction of offline and offline catering stores in the takeout era, this track is also more and more worthy of expectation.

There are many other consumer segments that do not need to be called here, and the logic behind them is more or less the same.

Generally speaking, if the current consumer sector can be said to be in place at the right time and gradually, the next step is to wait for logical verification. If the holiday is not disturbed by the epidemic, the probability will not be too much deviation.

However, in view of the complex market environment and the division and clearing of the consumer industry in the past two years, how to choose the right target is a technical task that examines the ability of research and judgment.

Of course, you can also specifically pick some areas with better certainty, such as the liquor and beer industry, and then invest in its ETF, which grows with this industry. For example, today's liquor ETF is up 3.58%, far outperforming the market.

Here is an introduction to the only pure wine ETF fund in A shares at present:Penghua Zhong Zheng Liquor ETF (512690)The latest size of the fund is more than 10 billion yuan, directly targeting the A-share 399987.SZ components, all of which are the most favored liquor companies in liquor and beer, such as Maotai, Wuliangye, Laojiao, Fenjiu, Tsing Tao Beer, Chongqing Beer and so on.

From the perspective of the past quarter, these heavy stocks have sold more than 20% of their results, reflecting very good growth. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of the liquor industry in the cycle of further prosperity, will be able to harvest better performance.

03

Conclusion

There is a famous saying in the investment circle, "risks go up and opportunities fall out." As far as the consumer industry is concerned, under the influence of multiple impact factors in the past, many subdivided industries have fallen a lot. And now that the situation is picking up, it can be said that it is indeed beginning to enter the stage of "falling out of opportunity".

Because of the epidemic, we missed the Mid-Autumn Festival. Now that the certainty of the epidemic is fading, we should not miss the consumption dividend on National Day and the World Cup in November.