On the supply side, Australia-Brazil 19 Hong Kong Railway Ore shipments totaled 25.41 million tons, an increase of 1.677 million tons compared with the previous month, of which Australian shipments increased by 1.27 million tons to 18.69 million tons and Brazil shipments increased by 406000 tons to 6.726 million tons. From the point of view of mines, except for the month-on-month decrease of 597000 tons of BHP shipments, the shipments of the other three major mines have increased. Among them, Rio Tinto PLC's shipping volume increased for three consecutive weeks, with an increase of 1.34 million tons to 7.22 million tons compared with the previous month, reaching a higher level for the year. FMG shipments increased by 816000 tons compared with the previous month, and VALE shipments increased by 829000 tons. The total arrival volume of China's 45 ports is 23.59 million tons, an increase of 1.21 million tons compared with the previous month. The utilization rate of mineral energy and the output of iron concentrate powder have decreased.
On the demand side, hot metal output continued to increase, mainly due to the early resumption of blast furnace production gradually reached full production. Pre-festival replenishment demand makes steel mills speed up delivery, port dredging volume and trading volume have increased. A total of 4 new blast furnaces resumed production, 3 blast furnaces were overhauled, and the operating rate of blast furnaces was 82.81%, an increase of 0.4% over last week. The resumption of production occurred in Northeast, North China and Southwest, and the overhaul occurred in Northeast, East China and Southwest. The average output of molten iron in 247 days was 2.4004 million tons, an increase of 20200 tons compared with the previous month. The average daily dredging volume was 3.1514 million tons, an increase of 353600 tons over the previous month, and the pre-holiday transaction volume was significantly better than that in the previous period. However, the profits of steel mills have been compressed, superimposed by subsequent production restrictions, hot metal output may be about to peak, continue to increase by a limited range. Downstream demand, building materials trading volume has rebounded, thread production has rebounded, total inventory has declined, the table needs to pick up sharply, and the data has improved.
In terms of inventory, the imported iron ore inventory at Port 45 is 131.842 million tons, a month-on-month drop of 5.3472 million tons. Due to the increase in the demand for replenishment before the festival, the dredging volume has rebounded, but the concentration of iron ore in the port is too late for storage, the number of pressure ships increases, and the port inventory decreases significantly under the high sparse port. The total amount of imported iron ore stocks of steel mills across the country was 99.1104 million tons, an increase of 1.2716 million tons compared with the previous month, of which the inventory of steel mills dominated by spot procurement increased significantly. The daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 2.9416 million tons, an increase of 42200 tons compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 42200 days compared with the previous month.
On the whole, the shipping volume and arrival volume of Macau and Pakistan at the supply end have increased. The hot metal output of the steel plant at the demand end continues to increase, but due to the restrictions of the follow-up production restriction policy, the hot metal output may be about to peak, and the increase is limited. Replenishment before the festival leads to a significant increase in recent port dredging and port spot trading volume. Downstream demand, building materials trading volume and thread table need to pick up. In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to remain strong and volatile under the marginal improvement of demand and the expectation of replenishment, but we need to pay attention to whether the improvement of downstream demand is as expected by the market and the subsequent production restriction policy.
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