Zhitong Financial APP learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that liquor rebate is generally safe, and positive factors are brewing under moving sales pressure. The current suppression of the plate stems from the market's great differences on the pace of recovery of future consumption. The bank believes that no matter whether history chooses optimists or pessimists, the current business inertia of enterprises has actually determined the operating results of the next six months. Terminal demand-channel inventory-wine enterprise management chain feedback takes time. Therefore, in the next six months, the bank expects that the current well-run wine companies will continue to achieve business results beyond the industry, and short-term recommendations focus on the high bid increase in the three quarters. Suggestions: Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH), Shanxi Fen Liquor (600809.SH), Gujing tribute Liquor (000596.SZ), Luzhou laojiao (000568.SZ).
The main points of Huachuang Securities are as follows:
Most brands are still in the process of getting money back, and they are generally safe and differentiated.
The high-end Maotai is leisurely, and the tasks before the fifth and Lu Festival are basically completed. Maotai's current payback is about 80%, which starts in October at the end of the month. Wuliangye payback / delivery progress is 90% rebate 85%. The annual task is basically completed by big businessmen, and small businesses and specialty stores are nearly completed before the festival. Laojiao 21, the three major brand sales companies issued a statement that the full suspension of annual quota implementation can be understood as the completion of quota implementation in the annual plan, and some market channels are still making payments before the festival.
The regional leading ancient well and Yanghe River are nearing completion. The progress of Yanghe payment is 90%, and the money is still being paid back before the festival. Gujing can enjoy the reward when it is completed before the festival. At present, the payment in eastern China outside the province is nearly completed, and the dealers who have not completed the task in the province will still return the money before the festival, and the task for the whole year before the festival is expected to be completed. The progress of welcoming the return of money is about 85%, of which southern Anhui performs better; the progress of money return in this world is 70%, and the pace of delivery has been accelerated recently.
The second high-end Fenjiu is leisurely, while the progress of other wine enterprises is slightly lower. The monthly payback of Fenjiu is expected to be about 85% Fenjiu 90% before the festival, and the progress is about 70%. The payback progress of the alcoholic wine internal ginseng / alcoholic wine series is 80% / 85% respectively, and the pre-festival alcoholic series continues to be paid back. The quota in the internal reference plan for next year is capped at 80% of the actual amount this year; Shuijingfang is still in the process of repayment, and the progress may be 50% to 70% of the original target.
National Day mobile sales outlook: although there is pressure, positive factors are also brewing, banquet replenishment may become a potential bright spot.Considering that the pre-festival wine companies are still paying back, it is expected that there may be a small pullback pressure on the price, while some cities are still affected by the epidemic, and the consumption scene is limited. However, positive factors are also constantly brewing. Since September, the promotion fee policy has continued to hit the ground, and orders such as the National Day wedding banquet have been in good condition. Among them, the activities of Jiangsu, Anhui and other National Day banquet hotels are relatively strong, and the scene has been repaired after the epidemic in Chengdu has stabilized. Recent shipments have accelerated. Therefore, to judge the banquet replenishment or higher-than-expected potential point, dynamic sales growth is expected to further pick up, neutral is expected to grow slightly year-on-year, industry inventory is expected to be digested.
Maotai approval price brief comment: recently stabilized, "top, bottom has low" judgment has been continuously verified.The wholesale price of Maotai continued to fall for a week after the Mid-Autumn Festival, with a drop of about 130,000,000 yuan respectively compared with the previous month. The main reason is that the epidemic situation in many places before the festival has been repeated again, and the return to hometown and banquets have been affected, and demand is under pressure. Second, the Mid-Autumn Festival delivery cycle in some regions has been extended to two weeks before and after the peak season, and the quota of traditional channels in September is relatively high, resulting in a firm price before the festival and a normal decline and adjustment after the festival. This week Maotai wholesale price has stabilized, the whole case / bulk bottle wholesale price is 3080 / bulk bottle 2770 yuan respectively, mainly due to rigid demand support, after the end of this round of delivery naturally rebounded, in line with the bank's early wholesale price "top, bottom has low" judgment. Considering that the company's payback will continue before the National Day, the bulk bottle approval price is expected to maintain the central level of around 2700 yuan, and the subsequent approval price is expected to maintain a stable trend.
Suggestions on the specific subject matter:
(1) the first is Maotai, the company takes the initiative to speed up and enter the upstream acceleration cycle. in the short term, the company is expected to usher in month-on-month acceleration in the third quarter, and the decline is a good opportunity for configuration.
(2) the management rhythm of Fenjiu is well controlled, the anti-risk ability is strong, the short-term low point has passed, and the third quarter may catalyze the market.
(3) increase the recommendation area leading ancient well (performance power is sufficient, moving sales feedback is good), cling to the old cellar with reasonable valuation (the valuation performance is cost-effective), and the strategic layout is expected to be at the bottom of Wuliangye.
Risk Tips:The impact time of the epidemic exceeded expectations, the recovery of consumer confidence was slow, and the cost reduction was less than expected.