Main points of investment
Event: on the evening of September 23, the company issued an announcement about signing a major contract for day-to-day operation.
In the past year, the contract signed with Tongwei Group totaled about 110 million yuan, and the profitability of automation equipment is expected to continue. The company and the grandchildren and subsidiaries of Tongwei Group have signed contracts totaling about 110 million yuan in 12 consecutive months. The object of the contract is industrial automation equipment and transformation. Among them, about 5.4 million in 2021, and a total of 105 million yuan was signed from January to September 2022, accounting for about 10% of the company's operating income in 2021. We believe that the profitability of the company's main automation equipment is expected to continue.
TOPcon automation equipment has sufficient orders on hand, and in the second half of the year, the profitability of the main business is expected to repair the current photovoltaic new forces cross-border layout battery field, the main process path is TOPcon as the mainstream, with the new generation of photovoltaic cell technology path clear, the downstream of the industry will be in a state of concentrated outbreak, new investment and strong demand for upgrading of existing capacity. At present, the company has plenty of orders on hand, and most of the orders are TOPCon or PERC reserved TOPCon orders. the semi-annual report reveals that the amount of orders on hand is about 1.07 billion yuan (including this contract), which is a big increase. As the automation leader in the field of photovoltaic cells, the company actively arranges the development and research of automation technology in the whole process under the TOPcon technology path. With the gradual delivery of orders and the continuous increase of new projects, the profitability of the main business is expected to be repaired.
The leader of high-end automation equipment is expected to become the new entrant of battery process equipment. The company has the leading layout in the field of photovoltaic battery automation equipment, with the ability of PERC/TOPCON/HJT automation, as well as the application technology foundation of copper plating heterojunction production, and is expected to become a new entrant of battery process equipment in the future. According to the company announcement in September, the company team has completed the verification of the process flow and completed the sample production of the corresponding process sections. After preliminary internal inspection and evaluation, the indicators basically meet the team's expectations, and it is expected that the follow-up will accelerate the process of mass production in this business area.
Looking to the future: "new energy + pan-semiconductor" two-wheel drive, valuation flexibility up 1) ficonTEC: terminated by the epidemic and other technical reasons, the follow-up will be restarted when the time is ripe and various conditions are in place. FicontTEC is expected to benefit from the outbreak of silicon, lidar and other industries, profitability is expected to continue to improve; 2) pan-semiconductor process equipment: products can be compared with core micro, Shengmei Shanghai; 3) Photovoltaic automation business: sufficient orders-on-hand, mainly TOPcon automation equipment, industry outbreak, profitability is expected to improve 4) Photovoltaic process equipment: the cleaning equipment has been delivered in small batches, and the copper plating scheme is actively being promoted, which is expected to provide greater upward flexibility for the company's valuation in the future.
Profit forecast
Taking into account the impact of equity incentives, excluding acquisitions, the company's 2022-2024 net profit is expected to be 0.48pm 1.28max 2.74 yuan, year-on-year growth-/ 167% Universe 113%, corresponding to PE 100max 38x18X. As the leader of high-end automation equipment, new energy and pan-semiconductors are expected to increase their performance and maintain their "buy" rating in the future.
Risk hint
1) the expansion of pan-semiconductor field is not as expected; 2) the expansion of process equipment is not as expected; 3) the epidemic situation is repeated.