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雷电微力(301050):毫米波微系统龙头 订单足管理优业绩增长明确

Thunderbolt Weili (301050): Leading orders for millimeter-wave microsystems are sufficient, management is excellent, and performance growth is clear

中信證券 ·  Sep 25, 2022 13:32  · Researches

The company is the leading enterprise of millimeter wave micro-system, and its products are widely used in radar, communication and other fields. In the industry, the company has mastered the core technology of millimeter wave micro-system, the business covers all links of the whole industry chain, and has established a complete R & D and production system. The products have obvious advantages in technology and technology, and there are good competition barriers. The company has full orders on hand, matching models have entered the stage of mass production, and its revenue performance continues to expand; at the same time, through equity incentives and war matching capital management plans, the company is expected to bind the technical and management team to the company's interests, operation and management or to meet the inflection point to support the further release of performance. Combining PE and PEG valuation method, with reference to comparable company valuation and taking into account the high performance growth of the company after the landing of large orders, the company is given a target price of 110RMB (corresponding to 45 times PE in 2023 and 1.3times PEG in 2022). For the first time, the company was given a "buy" rating.

Millimeter wave microsystem leader, order release performance is growing rapidly. Lightning micro-force is the leading enterprise of millimeter wave micro-system, and its products are widely used in radar, communication and other fields. the company has mastered the core technology of millimeter wave micro-system, and its business covers all aspects of the industry chain, and it has established a complete R & D and production system. It is one of the few enterprises in China that can provide overall solutions and product manufacturing services for millimeter wave microsystems. A certain project that the company participated in entered the stage of batch production and installation, and its revenue performance has maintained rapid growth since 2019. It was announced in February 2022 that a total of 2.4 billion order contracts were added. With the successive production and delivery of orders, the company's 2022H achieved revenue of 443 million yuan, + 13.94% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of home return is 194 million yuan, + 68.5% compared with the same period last year, and the company's revenue is expected to maintain high growth during the 14th five-year Plan period.

With the vigorous development of millimeter wave microsystem technology, there is a broad market space for diversified applications. The company's main product millimeter wave microsystem is the integration of millimeter wave technology and phased array technology. Millimeter wave is located between microwave and far-infrared wave, which has the characteristics of wide bandwidth and all-weather communication. Phased array synthesizes the main beam through beamforming principle, which has the characteristics of high efficiency and high reliability. As a key common technology, millimeter wave microsystem has been widely used in radar, communication, remote sensing and other fields. Millimeter wave microsystem in radar field has significant advantages in sensitivity, multi-function, volume and so on, and has become the mainstream development direction of new radar. In the general field, satellite launch is accelerated, and satellite-to-ground and inter-satellite communication may increase the demand for phased array microsystems. With the reduction of cost in the civil market, the application of millimeter wave microsystems in areas such as 5G communication base stations and vehicle-mounted unmanned radar may increase, and the market space ceiling is expected to open.

The coverage efficiency of the whole industry chain is high, and it is intended to encourage the binding core team. The development and production of millimeter wave microsystem requires the cooperation of multi-disciplinary technicians and has a higher entry threshold. At present, there are few market participants and the pattern is relatively clear. The company takes the lead in product development and industrial production in the industry, and is one of the few enterprises to achieve full coverage of the microsystem industry chain. at present, the company can design core chips independently, which is helpful to improve the overall performance index of microsystem products. at the same time, the layout of microwave anechoic room business, leading testing and calibration capabilities, microsystem products have obvious advantages in technology and technology, there are good competition barriers. In the process of IPO, the company realized the binding between the senior management team and the company's interests through the war capital allocation management plan. On the evening of September 14, the company announced once again that it planned to implement equity incentives for middle management and core technical backbones. The incentive plan is expected to fully mobilize the enthusiasm of core technical personnel, and the company may meet the upward inflection point of operation and management to support the further release of performance.

Risk factors: high customer concentration; discontinuous acquisition of orders; new product research and development is not as expected; market competition is intensified; intellectual property rights are violated.

Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the company is the leading enterprise of millimeter wave micro-system, the products have achieved the coverage of the whole industry chain, and the upstream and downstream links form a synergistic effect. Considering that the company has significant first-mover advantage in millimeter wave microsystems, building high competition barriers, full orders on hand, and supporting models have entered the stage of mass production, it is predicted that the annual net profit of the company in 2022-23-24 will be RMB 3.00 million, respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB1.73 and 2.41 EPS respectively, and the current price corresponding to 2022-23-24 PE will be times that of 44-32-21. Comprehensive PE and PEG method, with reference to the current valuation levels of comparable company Zhenradium Technology, Changchang Technology, Guobo Electronics and Hollavo, and considering the clear growth of the company's landing performance of large orders, give the company a target market capitalization of 19 billion yuan (corresponding to 45 times PE in 2023, 1.3 times PEG in 2022) and corresponding target price of 110yuan. Cover for the first time, giving the company a "buy" rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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