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崔东树:2022年8月新能源乘用车区域市场分析

Cui Dongshu: regional Market Analysis of New Energy passenger vehicles in August 2022

智通財經 ·  Sep 24, 2022 20:14

Source: Zhitong Finance and Economics

Author: Cui Dongshu

According to the retail data of new energy vehicles of the Federation of passengers, after the implementation of the policy of halving the purchase tax on fuel vehicles, the national new energy vehicle market has not been affected, but the trend of new energy vehicles from June to August has exceeded expectations. The improvement of supply superimposed by the rise in oil prices has led to a hot market, and the rise in oil prices and the locking of electricity prices have led to a hot performance of electric vehicle orders. Various localities have introduced policies to encourage the consumption of passenger cars, and the month-on-month trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in August has been obviously promoted by the policy.

1. 8New Energy vehicle Wholesale is very strong

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Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 630000 in August, an increase of 104% over the same period last year and 12% month-on-month. The trend from January to August shows the characteristics of rising continuously, and the hot growth momentum of the market has not been exhausted.

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From January to August, 3.66 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesale, an increase of 119% over the same period last year. Since the beginning of this year, due to the rise in the price of raw materials such as lithium and nickel, the price of power battery has risen much faster than expected in the industry, so the car companies are under great pressure after the price rise of power battery, so they can only ease the cost pressure by raising the price. Price increases and promotions occurred in August, and the market is still in a strong rising stage.

2. 8Strong retail growth rate of new energy vehicles in monthly

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Retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 529000 in August, up 112% from a year earlier, up 9% from a month earlier. The trend of new energy retail continued to be hot from April to August, and the high and steady trend from July to August indicated that sales in the third quarter exceeded expectations.

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According to the retail data of the Federation of passengers, the domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles from January to August were 3.26 million, an increase of 119% over the same period last year. The current annual growth rate remains high.

3. Use characteristics of new energy passenger vehicles

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The proportion of rental of new energy passenger vehicles increased gradually from 2017 to 2019, and then the proportion of pure electric rental continued to decline since 2020. Due to the shortage of supply in the private market, pure electric leases accounted for 13% in August 2022, a big increase.

Recently, the share of the private market has also continued to rise, the demand for rental rental continues to decline, and pure electric is still the best choice for rental.

4. The performance of the regional market is gradually improving

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In the past few years, the demand for new energy passenger cars was mainly in the restricted megacities, and has continued to decline recently. From January to August in 2022, new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 21% of total sales in megacities, down 8 percentage points from 2021, which also shows that the growth rate of new energy vehicle market sales in restricted cities is gradually slowing down, and the basic population size is constrained by demand. Due to the large population base and poor public transport, the recent county and township market new energy has been gradually launched.

Compared with the gradual extension of fuel vehicles to the low-line market, the pace of new energy vehicles is faster, especially in non-restricted large cities, the proportion of new energy vehicles sales has reached a higher share. The new energy vehicles in the county and township market are also gradually expanding and have great potential in the future.

5. The performance of the new energy city market is gradually improving.

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The main growth of new energy vehicles in August was the hardest-hit areas where the epidemic was suppressed, and the performance of purchase restrictions such as Shanghai, Hangzhou and Shenzhen was still strong. The main growth of new energy vehicles in August is Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Wuhan and other non-restricted core cities.

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From January to August in 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, new energy vehicles increased significantly in an all-round way, and Chengdu, Hangzhou, Foshan and Shenzhen all grew relatively rapidly. In particular, the increment of Chengdu reached the scale of 60,000 units, forming the core driving force of the increment.

Chengdu market is also a characteristic environment for the high growth of new energy vehicles, and the products with high appearance and low cost have great potential in the southwest. Hangzhou and other restricted cities such as Shenzhen and Guangzhou have a relatively strong performance, which is also an incremental contribution to the purchase of high-end models in the city.

6. Regional demand difference of Pure Electric vehicles

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The gradual launch of the pure electric private household market promotes the development of the industry. Although the demand for purchase restrictions in big cities is very strong this year, the share of the market in large cities has gradually declined, the market share in large cities has continued to rise, and the private consumption market in small and medium-sized cities, counties and townships has rebounded slowly.

At present, the rental market of pure electric vehicles is gradually picking up, accounting for the peak of pure electric vehicle sales in 2019, followed by a gradual decline in 2020, falling to about 14% in 2022, but stronger in August.

The proportion of rental cars in megacities has declined, and the private market is still rebounding rapidly. This year, the rental market in restricted cities is still the core force.

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From the performance of the main models, it reflects the improvement of the performance of the main models in large and medium-sized cities. Especially the increment represented by BYD in August, compared with the same period, the share increment was more than 2 percentage points in big cities and medium-sized markets. From Tesla, Inc. 's point of view, the main area in August extended to large and medium-sized cities, and the pure electric market in medium-sized cities grew relatively well.

7. Regional demand for mixed passenger cars

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The private consumption market of mixed models has great incremental potential, and there is a good demand in small and medium-sized cities.

The proportion of plug-in hybrid models in terms of unit use and rental continues to shrink. The main demand for plug-in rental models is in mega-cities and large-scale city markets, and this year's plug-in rental in super-large cities has shrunk sharply.

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In recent years, the proportion of plug-in hybrid cars in unrestricted cities has gradually increased, and BYD and ideal are relatively strong. The M5 performed strongly in August, surpassing some established star models.

The interruption became stronger in August, large and medium-sized non-restricted cities are still the main force, the demand of restricted cities is greatly affected by the epidemic, and the interruption in county and township markets has not yet been fully and effectively promoted.

BYD Han and other restricted cities have a high degree of dependence. Qin and Song dynasties and other low-cost mixed performance in small and medium-sized cities is stronger.

8. Regional permeability of pure electric passenger vehicles-August

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At present, the proportion of pure electric cars in restricted cities has increased sharply, from 6% in 2019 to 26% in 2022.

On the other hand, the proportion of sales of new energy pure electric vehicles in large cities, medium-sized cities and small cities in non-restricted cities is basically the same, which is at a low level in 2019 and 2020, rising to 20% in August in medium-sized cities this year. The penetration performance of the county and township market is also strong.

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The national mixed-in market also reached a recent high of 6% in 2021. Market penetration has continued to grow all over the country, especially in super-large cities, which accounted for 10% of the mixed-car market in August this year. The proportion of mixed market in small and medium-sized cities also shows the characteristics of continuous increase, and the gap of mixed permeability among all kinds of cities is relatively narrowed.

9. 8There is a strong differentiation among enterprises in different regional markets in June.

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The performance of the local rental market is relatively different. The stronger rental markets in August this year are Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan and so on. Among them, the performance of various manufacturers in the rental market is also quite different. Local products in some areas do not necessarily have a high share of the local rental market, such as the Sichuan market and Chongqing market, where non-local brands have performed relatively well this year.

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The characteristics of the private pure electric market are relatively distinct, and the trend of high-end is extremely obvious. BYD performed well, and developed areas are basically number one. SAIC GM Wuling in Guangxi and Shandong are stronger.

NIO Inc. Automobile and XPeng Inc., the new power of car-building, have both performed very well. On the other hand, the performance of traditional car manufacturers in the private electric vehicle market is also more prominent.

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The performance of BYD and Li Auto Inc., which are in the private market, is stronger. In particular, BYD's main cities are almost in the lead. The performance of most of Li Auto Inc. 's main market has declined. Jinkangselis has surpassed Li Auto Inc. in Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shandong, Sichuan and other markets, and has a strong trend in passenger cars.

The performance of the joint venture car companies is relatively weak, while BMW and Volkswagen perform slightly better.

10.Market trend in Beijing

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The market trend of new energy vehicles in Beijing market is relatively stable in 2022, with sales reaching 17000 units in August 2022, slightly higher than the same period last year. But sales in Beijing in January 2022 were lower than last year, with a 25% year-on-year increase in cumulative sales from January to August.

Since the relative tension of new energy vehicle indicators in 2018, the market of new energy vehicles in Beijing in 2022 contrasts with the national trend, which is the effect of restrained consumption brought about by the pace of issuing indicators.

Beijing's new energy sales are relatively good from June to August, considering that in the absence of indicators, and Tesla, Inc. provides less cars, Beijing's performance in August is also stable. The grade of new energy vehicles in Beijing is generally pragmatic, which is also a good reflection of household demand.

11.The trend of Shanghai New Energy Market

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The new policy trend of the Shanghai market is in obvious contrast to that of the Beijing market, and the trend has been extremely stable since 2019. Since August 2020, Shanghai new energy vehicles have shown a small explosion of growth characteristics.

Sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai reached 31000 in August 2022, up from 14000 in August last year. The losses caused by the epidemic in Shanghai in August should have recovered significantly.

12.The market trend of new energy passenger cars in traffic-restricted cities

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The performance of new energy vehicles in traffic-restricted cities is relatively strong, reaching the level of 120000 in August 2022, a year-on-year growth rate of 1.5 times. Moreover, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to August reached the level of 770000, an increase of 151% over the same period last year, much higher than our overall car market growth, but also higher than our overall average growth rate of new energy vehicles, reflecting the relatively high enthusiasm of traffic-restricted cities to buy new energy vehicles under the epidemic.

13.The market trend of new energy passenger cars in unrestricted areas

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Non-double-restricted cities, that is, areas where there are no restrictions on the purchase and use of fuel vehicles. As there are no restrictions on the purchase and traffic of traditional cars, the demand for new energy vehicles in these cities is the real market demand. At present, non-double-limited cities are also growing relatively rapidly, such cities are relatively wide in the country, and the sales of new energy vehicles are also showing a relatively high level.

New energy vehicles performed extremely well in non-double-limited cities in 2022, with sales of 244000 units growing by 109% in August and not much lower in August than in June. Overall, the total number of units reached 1.61 million from January to August, an increase of 142% over the same period last year, showing a strong growth characteristics.

The non-restricted and non-restricted cities with little impact on the policy become the main force of sales and increment, and various regions of the country have the characteristics of strong demand growth for new energy vehicles. Superimposing the demand of traffic-restricted cities, the regional market demand will maintain a strong growth in 2022.

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