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富途研选 | 纯电动汽车产销首破百万,星星之火开始燎原?

Futu Research | Pure Electric Vehicle Production and Sales Break One Million for the First Time, Starfire Begins to Spread?

富途资讯 ·  Dec 24, 2018 17:05

Abstract: in November, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles in China exceeded one million, and the installation of power batteries is highly prosperous. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document stipulating that hybrid cars in China will withdraw from the ranks of new energy sources from 2019 and continue to increase the policy.

1. NDRC: hybrid cars will withdraw from the ranks of new energy sources from 2019

China continues to increase the size of the new energy vehicle industry. On December 18, the National Development and Reform Commission formally issued the "regulations on Investment Management of Automobile Industry", formally confirming that from January 1, 2019, in the field of vehicle investment projects, hybrid vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will be classified as fuel vehicles. Electric vehicles are only for vehicles driven by electric motors, which mainly refer to add-on electric vehicles, fuel cell electric vehicles, pure electric vehicles and so on.

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As soon as this regulation is issued, it means that all plug-in hybrid models will be classified as traditional fuel vehicle projects from January 1, 2019, and will be subject to the same restrictions on vehicle investment projects as traditional cars. the current purchase tax exemption, new energy vehicle license plates and government subsidies will be abolished.

2. The production and sales of pure electric vehicles exceeded one million.

On the one hand, China's policy continues to increase the size of new energy vehicles, on the other hand, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are rising. According to data released by the China Automobile Association a few days ago, sales of pure electric passenger vehicles in November were 108834, up 52 per cent and 16 per cent respectively compared with the same month and month-on-month, while sales of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 30791, up 105 per cent and 16 per cent respectively. Sales of new energy buses and special-purpose vehicles were 16426 and 13292, down 22% and 14% respectively from the same period last year.

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The cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.048 million and 1.025 million respectively from January to November, reaching an all-time high.

Low-end pure electric models still have momentum, with sales of about 5.2 / 16000 A00/A0 models, which is the main component. Plug-in hybrid passenger cars, accompanied by the introduction of new models, once again increased by 105% compared with the same period last year, and the proportion of B-class cars in PHEV (EV, pure electric; HEV, hybrid; PHEV, plug-in hybrid) rose to 35%. In terms of enterprises, BYD remained strong, with pure electric sales of 16000 vehicles close to BAIC's new energy level of 17000, while occupying 43 per cent of the market with 13000 units.

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Here's a rough explanation of what are A00/A0 and B-class cars.Dividing the car into A00, A0, A, B, C and D is a way of dividing the car model in the German automobile industry (because the German automobile industry is strong enough so there is a boundary division). It is not a universal division standard in the world, and there are no strict regulations between them. this classification method is mainly based on the parameters such as wheelbase, displacement and weight, and the lower the alphabetical order is. The longer the wheelbase, the greater the displacement and weight of this class, the more luxurious it is.

For example, if you buy an A-class car, it may look like this.

If you buy a D-class, that's awesome, the displacement and wheelbase of this class are the largest, with a displacement of more than 3.0L and a wheelbase of not less than 2.8m. Common models include Bentley Muchan, Rolls-Royce Phantom, Aston Martin rapaid, Red Flag L5, imported Audi A8L, Mercedes-Benz S-Class and other luxury cars.

3. Tesla, Inc. 's sales volume can remain high in the fourth quarter, and electrification is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.

Sales of electric cars in China are rising, and Tesla, Inc. of the United States on the other side of the ocean seems to be doing well. Tesla, Inc. will release fourth-quarter production and sales figures in early January. China International Capital Corporation expects total fourth-quarter sales of 92100, of which Model3 sales are 64000 (15% month-on-month growth) and ModelS/X sales are 14000 / 14100. At present, FactSet unanimously expects Model3/S/X sales of 65300 / 14200 / 13600 respectively.

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4. The power battery installation is highly prosperous.

The production and sales of new energy vehicles are at a new high. superimposed from 2019, hybrid cars will withdraw from the ranks of new energy, the demand for power batteries will further expand, and the installation of power batteries will continue to be highly prosperous.

In November, the power battery installed 8.9GWh, an increase of 29% over the same period last year. China International Capital Corporation found that among them, ternary battery 4.8GWh increased by 70% compared with the same period last year. From January to November, iron lithium installed 3.0GWh, down 19% from the same period last year. Ningde Times and BYD accounted for 55% of the total installed capacity, while Guoxuan Hi-Tech was pulled by BAIC EC220. Yiwei Lithium can be pulled by Nanjing Golden Dragon and Land Ark.

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In addition to the high growth of ternary batteries, soft bag batteries also increased by 74% in November compared with the same period last year. The continuous growth of ternary and soft package batteries is conducive to driving the demand for ternary cathode materials, aluminum-plastic films and other related lithium battery materials. At present, the price of lithium battery materials is falling steadily, and the industry is gradually entering the off-season, but the orders of the leading manufacturers are still good, waiting for the subsidy policy to land. China International Capital Corporation is optimistic about the mid-stream leader.

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5. Recommend attention

The market of new energy vehicles is growing strongly and its products are highly competitive.Recommend BYD as the target of the whole car.The trend of the combination of lithium electric leaders is obvious, paying attention to the core supply system in Ningde eraRecommend Ningde Times, Huichuan Technology and Hongfa sharesThe order of investment in battery materials is as follows: cathode material > aluminum-plastic film > diaphragm > electrolyte and negative electrode material.Recommend new fiber science and technology, new Zeus

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