Core ideas:
The performance of the income statement is poor, with a dividend rate of 37%. According to the annual report, the first shares have an annual income of 67.802 billion yuan (+ 53% compared with the same period last year) and a net profit of 690 million yuan (78% compared with the same period last year). The increase in completion (+ 27%) and the increase in the proportion of consolidated settlement led to income growth. In 21 years, the company's gross profit margin was 19.8%, year-on-year decline in 8.1pct, asset and credit impairment of 1.222 billion yuan, investment income down 95%, minority shareholder profit and loss increased from 25% to 67%. The combination of the above factors led to a decline in performance. The 21-year planned dividend is 260 million yuan, with a dividend rate of 37%.
Forced payback to improve the quality of the land. In terms of sales, the sales volume in the first 21 years was 114.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7% over the same period last year, and the payback rate was 104%, an increase in 12pct over the past 20 years. The planned sales for 22 years are 108 billion yuan, down 6% from the same period last year. Sales of the 22Q1 are down 27.4% from the same period last year, leading the top 100 20pct. In terms of investment, the amount of land taken in the first 21 years is 57.2 billion yuan, with a strength of 50%, which is higher than that of 21pct, a mainstream real estate enterprise. The proportion of land rights and interests is 56%, an increase of 3pct over the past 20 years. From the point of view of distribution, the resources of the two concentration account for 56%, while Beijing (including fee and concentration) accounts for 53%. In the past 21 years, it has newly entered 5 cities of Nantong, Foshan, Dongguan, Changzhou and Taizhou, all of which are core third-and fourth-tier cities.
Deleveraging, cost reduction and financing have advantages. At the end of 2001, the company's interest-bearing debt was 125.932 billion yuan, down 11 billion yuan from the same period last year, and the financing cost was 4.85%, down 42bp from the same period last year. The company's financing advantage was highlighted. 22Q1 issued four successful tickets totaling 6.77 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 3.4-3.9%. In April 22, the company's board of directors proposed to increase the debt financing authority by 32 billion yuan, including 17.5 billion yuan in the lottery, 4.5 billion yuan in the debt financing plan and 32 billion yuan in ABS100.
Profit forecast and investment advice. For the first time in 21 years, the return of sales and the improvement of investment quality, while reducing leverage, broaden the financing channels of debt rights, and optimize the debt structure. As a strong credit state-owned enterprise, relying on the advantage of reserve resources, it is estimated that the 22-23-year return net profit is 23 yuan and 2.5 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 7.4xPE and 7.0xPE, with reference to comparable company valuation, 22-year return net profit corresponding to 8xPE valuation is given a reasonable value, corresponding to 7.22 yuan per share, given a "buy" rating.
Risk hint. The decline in the prosperity of the industry affects the company's sales, and the settlement scale is lower than expected.
