Main points of investment:
Event: the company announced on September 23 and Inner Mongolia Wulanchabu Jining District people's Government signed 4000 million flat accumulation foil into the park agreement, planning the first phase investment of 600 million yuan, production capacity of 2000 million flat accumulation foil / year, completed and put into production by the end of 2023; the second phase of 20 million square meters / year production capacity is expected to start construction in 2024. The laminated foil industrialization project is the first to be announced in the world. Laminated foil is a new generation of electrode foil products. Adopting a new powder sintering process, the electrode foil has three major advantages over the traditional corrosion process: 1) the specific capacity is increased by more than 40%. Greatly improve the performance of capacitors; 2) the application of laminated foil aluminum electrolytic capacitors have small size, various specifications and a wide range of applications; 3) the production process is environmentally friendly, without acid-base reaction and waste liquid discharge.
The expansion of the application field of new aluminum electrolytic capacitors based on the new generation of laminated foil is expected to improve the market space. The specific capacity of laminated foils is 40% higher than that of etched foils, and the aluminum electrolytic capacitors using laminated foils as raw materials are smaller at the same capacitance.
According to the data of China Electronic components Association, in the product structure distribution of the global capacitor market, ceramic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, thin film capacitors and tantalum capacitors account for 49%, 29%, 8% and 7%, respectively. Ceramic capacitors rely on the advantage of miniaturization, which is more suitable for the needs of electronic equipment and provides more possibility for multi-capacitor integration. In the future, the miniaturization of aluminum electrolytic capacitors based on laminated foils will also provide more flexibility in product design and electronic equipment integration, expand the scope of application of aluminum electrolytic capacitors, so as to enhance the market space.
The whole industry chain is upgraded together, and the deep binding of upstream and downstream creates high barriers. Since 2018, the company has jointly established Sunshine Dongyang Light Metal Co., Ltd., combining the advantages of Dongyang Aluminum Powder process and the company's advantages in the electrode foil forming process to jointly promote the research and development of powder laminated foil. at present, it has the conditions for industrialization promotion. The upgrading of the aluminum electrolytic capacitor industry involves the industrial chain including aluminum powder-laminated foil-laminated foil-aluminum electrolytic capacitor-terminal product certification, which is jointly promoted by the upstream and downstream. East Sunshine involves mainly laminated foil and laminated foil, which is in the core position in the middle and upper reaches of the industrial chain, and the deep binding between the upstream and downstream casts a solid barrier.
Expand the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials. The company announced on September 8 that it intends to invest no more than 1.4 billion yuan to invest in the expansion of 50,000 tons of lithium battery lithium iron phosphate cathode materials project in Shaoguan City, Guangdong Province. the project construction period is 15 months and will be carried out in two phases. the planned production capacity of the first phase of the project is 30,000 tons / year, and the planned capacity of the second phase of the project is 20,000 tons / year. The company officially announced the lithium battery cathode material project as early as 2018. After years of deep ploughing, it already has mature technology and stable downstream customers, and its capacity expansion is based on meeting the growth of downstream customer demand.
New energy materials platform enterprises, the integration of industry and research continues to promote the casting of high-growth leaders. From the product point of view, the company's new materials product line can be divided into: 1) lithium battery new materials: battery aluminum foil, cathode materials, PVDF;2) electronic new materials industry chain: electronic light foil-corrosion / lamination foil-formed foil-aluminum electrolytic capacitor; 3) fluorine chlorination industry chain: chlor-alkali chemical industry-methane chloride-fluorine chemical industry-fluororesin. From the application point of view, the company's products are mainly used in lithium batteries, photovoltaic inverters, circuit equipment and power control, household appliances. The company starts from the capacitor, extends upstream to take the lead in realizing the domestic replacement of electrode foil; in 2012, it is involved in the fluorine chemical industry and photovoltaic PVDF industrialization project; in 2018, it announced the construction of lithium battery cathode material project, and in the same year, it launched a joint investment project with Japan's UACJ in brazing foil and battery aluminum foil production capacity; in 2021, PVDF achieved lithium grade product certification, and in the same year, 10,000 tons of battery aluminum foil production capacity was hit the ground. The current capacity planning includes an investment of 1 billion in capacitor production capacity, 100000 tons of battery aluminum foil, 10,000 tons of PVDF+ matching R142b, 50,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, and 4000 million flat laminated foils.
Based on the industry, the company continues to promote the landing of new products and new production capacity with the integration of production and research, and gradually grows into a platform-based leader of new materials.
Raise earnings forecasts and maintain buy ratings. According to the company's latest release of laminated foil, lithium iron phosphate cathode material capacity planning, it is expected to achieve output in 2024 to form income, raise the company's 2024 profit forecast, 2022-2024 is expected to achieve a net profit of 14.2 pound 233.66 billion yuan (the original forecast is 14.2 pound 233.2 billion yuan), corresponding to 2022-2024 PE is 19-12-7 times, to maintain the buy rating.
Risk hint: the risk that the fluctuation of the credit environment leads to the shortage of funds, the company has more bank credit, and the fluctuation of the credit environment may lead to the fluctuation of the capital situation; the risk of a sharp decline in PVDF prices; the risk that the new production capacity of battery foil falls short of the expected risk.