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分析师警告:欧洲能源危机恐将持续至2023年底

Analysts warn: Europe's energy crisis is likely to last until the end of 2023

Zhitong Finance ·  Sep 23, 2022 22:29

Consulting firm Energy Aspects Ltd. The severe energy crisis in Europe is likely to last until the end of 2023, as the region grapples with strong demand and supply constraints exacerbated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it said in a recent interview.

"it's not just going to last one winter," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at the consultancy. She added that the market needs Russia to balance, not only for the coming winter, but also for the cold periods that follow at the end of next year.

At present, European natural gas prices have been pushed higher as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has subverted energy supplies and spread to global markets, forcing Germany to take tough measures, such as nationalizing its largest natural gas importer. Sen said oil prices were expected to fluctuate further in the fourth quarter due to concerns about a possible recession and blockade measures.

She said crude oil prices could hover around $90 a barrel in the short term and could rise to about $120 a barrel by the end of the year. It is reported that the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark, was close to $90 on Friday, nearly 30% below its June high.

The main market developments that investors are focused on are the proposed price ceiling for Russian crude oil and how much extra oil countries such as India can absorb from the OPEC + oil producer once the EU's December ban on Russian oil imports takes effect. Sen said Asia's largest oil consumer has the ability to increase oil reserves, but potential bank sanctions could limit oil inflows.

"We expect more Russian oil to be exported to Asia and then re-tagged to find another buyer," she said. But it does mean that you will be stuck with a lot of oil on board. "

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