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芒格最经典的Daily Journal年会:如果你没有逆境,你就不会拥有这些生命的褒奖

Munger's most classic Daily Journal conference: If you don't have adversity, you won't have these rewards of life

聰明投資者 ·  Sep 23, 2022 23:54

Source: smart investors

In February 2017, Charlie Munger gave a two-hour lecture and question-and-answer session at the annual meeting of Daily Journal.

After the end, he talked excitedly with a small number of investors to do "around the fire."

At this shareholders' meeting, Munger generously shared many views, including Energy, Exxon Mobil Corp, Wells Fargo & Co, American Express Co and so on, as well as many anecdotes and even embarrassing stories about himself, which made people laugh.

He keeps telling people about his failures and the changes he and Buffett have made in the face of an increasingly difficult investment environment.

In particular, it talks about the importance of adversity to life.

Munger said, "when you struggle to tide over the difficulties, this seemingly terrible adversity is actually the source of your success, your feelings and everything else.

If you don't have adversity, you won't have these life rewards, which come from how you deal with adversity. "

At present, these words will have more empathy and strength for investors, entrepreneurs, as well as you and me who are in the torrent of the times.

This is also a big reason for smart investors to invite Eason to elaborate translation of this article.

I would like to thank RICHARD LEWIS for listening to the meeting and using video recordings and words to organize the entire meeting. Since there was no live broadcast at that time, such a sharing was particularly generous and cherished.

Here are the classic phrases from Munger at this annual meeting:

1. If we keep doing things well on the right path, I don't think we need to worry about the future.

Buffett and I can't contribute much to many of Berkshire's businesses, but we're very good at judging who can run them.

3. I have spent all my life with people who enjoy delayed gratification (working and living).

4. My view of the US energy business is different from that of almost anyone else. I wish we hadn't produced all this natural gas. I would be very happy if I saw that the condensate in the shale deposit had not been exploited and would only be quietly sealed there for decades to come.

5. But for companies like Exxon Mobil Corp, their output has fallen by 2/3, but oil prices are rising faster than production is falling. This is a very unique way to make money. It may continue, but it's confusing and we're not used to it.

6. People who are 1.5 meters tall don't want to play basketball with people who are 2.5 meters tall. It's too difficult. So you have to find a game where you have an advantage, and it has to be something you're very interested in.

My hero is Maimonides (a medieval Jewish philosopher). All his philosophy and writing is done outside his 10 or 12 hours a day as a medical practitioner. He thinks you should take an active part in life, so I suggest you take an active part in life.

8、I always say that you should marry the best person who thinks of you. I'm afraid that's the rule of life. You must obey the greatest advantage you can get in life.

9、I highly respect the Confucian Confucius' idea that life is not an one-off game. In this game, you take the baton from your ancestors and pass it on. Our civilization is based on the wise ideas of these ancestors.

There are busts of two people at home. One is Benjamin.·Franklin, the other is Lee Kuan Yew.

11. Compared with some small truths that you are likely to encounter, you need to learn some common and important ones. I always try to catch the really great ideas in every discipline. The major principles in every discipline are very, very useful.

12. If you plan to participate in the game for a long time, you'd better be able to cope50%There is no need to make a fuss about the withdrawal.

13、Even if we are all stupid, it is also a good thing to be less stupid, so I think rationality is a kind of moral responsibility. We all have a responsibility to get better. Of course, we have to be tolerant of other people who go through the journey of life with us.

14. What I am saying is that in the long journey of life, I have found that the people who really love you are those who crawl along with you and share adversity, not those who enjoy prosperity and happiness together.

15. It is a very, very good idea to think that life is made up of a series of adversity, and each adversity is an opportunity to deal with it.

The full text of this annual meeting has been translated into 25000 words, and we will share some of the original questions and answers.

Wells Fargo & Co's problem is not the incentive mechanism itself, but the essence is that they have made wrong business judgments.

Can you comment on Wells Fargo & Co?

MungerOf course, there is something wrong with Wells Fargo & Co. Wells Fargo & Co was suspected of opening a large-scale private customer account in October 2016. The essence of the matter is that they have made wrong business judgments.

They are caught up in issues such as cross-selling and thorny incentive issues. Their incentive mechanism is so radical that some employees make the wrong response and do things they should not do. After that, when the problem was exposed, they made some misjudgments in the process of dealing with it.

I don't think there are long-term, essential things in these things.ErrorIt is more likely that they appeared when they were formulating the incentive mechanism.Fault. This is an easy mistake.

The smartest person I know has committed a similar crime.Fault. Henry Singleton Singleton of Teledyne is one of the smartest people I've ever known in my life.

Henry also had a very radical incentive system, just like Wells Fargo & Co. The clients of many of his subsidiaries are government departments, and two or three of his 20 subsidiaries have defrauded the government. So all of a sudden, he was caught up in three scandals at the same time. It is not difficult to deceive the government, but Henry's original intention was never to deceive the government. his problem was that the incentives he had established were so radical that he was caught off guard.

It could happen to anyone. I don't think it was a mistake for Wells Fargo & Co to set up a slightly more radical incentive mechanism.

I thinktheyThe mistake is that when the bad newsComeThey did not understand it correctly. But in things like capital,MarketLike thisA difficult ecology to surviveIn the systemIfYou made such a mistake, and soon youBe eliminated.

Follow up the issue of incentive mechanism. You said there was nothing wrong with Wells Fargo & Co's radical incentives. Would you like to explain further?

MungerBefore you actually do it, how do you know if the incentives you set up are too radical? They don't react quickly enough to bad news, which is of course a very dangerous thing.

But I don't think this incident itself will harm Wells Fargo & Co's future development. In fact, they will do better.

There are stupid things.An advantage.,就It's possible that youIt won't happen again.

02. My view of the energy business is that I hope to use them more slowly

Although domestic natural gas exploration is a capital-intensive industry, do you still think it is a good business?

MungerI am rightAmericaIn the energy businessViewsAnd almost otherAnyPeople are different.

I want us toNeverTo produce all this natural gas.If I see it,Condensate oil in shale depositsHas not been mined, andIn the coming decadesJust quietly sealed where, I will be very happy.We can pay a group of Arabs and use up their oil. But no one else in America seems to understand what I'm thinking.

I like delaying gratification. Oil and gas will not disappear, and I think it is as important as the topsoil of Iowa.

If any of you say, "Oh, I've found a good way to make money and sell all our topsoil in Iowa to Greenland!" "I don't think it's a good idea.

So I don't think it's a good idea to accelerate the use of our oil and gas reserves, but I'm probably the only one in this country who thinks so. There is not enough delay in gratification to please me with my own reserves, and I don't see any advantage in doing so.

I think our oil and gas reserves seem essential to civilization.Chemical raw materials(put aside) theirsNot talking about energy attributes.I wish I could use them more slowly.

By the way, I'm sure I'm right, while the other 99% are wrong.

But (to answer your question), I don't know (whether this is a good business). The oil and gas industries are very unique. Companies that succeed in most other industries usually succeed by increasing the output of goods.

But for companies like Exxon Mobil Corp, their production has fallen by 2/3, although oil prices are rising faster than production is falling. This is a very unique way to make money.

It may continue, but it's confusing and we're not used to it.

03. You need to find out what you are most likely to be good at, and what you do every day should be in line with reality.

About someone trying to figure out which career path to choose early in their career.

I have two ideas about this: 1) figure out the jobs you are most likely to be good at, and 2) determine which jobs are most helpful to society. Do you think the focus of these ideas is correct? How would you answer this question?

MungerIn terms of career choice, I want to tell everyone here that in my life, I have never been too successful in something I am not interested in. So I don't think if you face things that you are not interested in every day, you will probably succeed. You must find what you are interested in.

If you think you can succeed in things you don't like to do, you expect too much of human nature. This is a big problem.

Of course, you have to compete in a game where you have some unusual talents.People who are 1.5 meters tall don't want to play basketball with people who are 2.5 meters tall. It's too difficult. So you have to find a game where you have an advantage, and it has to be something you're very interested in.

Then, you will consider the moral issues on the journey of life, of course you want to be a moral person. On the other hand, you can't just idealize how the world should work. If you do, you will feel that the world we live in is too dirty for you to get close to. You may even be consumed by the idealized ideology of some left-wing schools.

You think you're dealing with moral issues, but what you're doing doesn't apply to the world at all. Maybe you need to lift your spirits by smoking a little marijuana. (laughter) This is not the Munger system.

My hero is Maimonides (a medieval Jewish philosopher). All his philosophy and writing is done outside his 10 or 12 hours a day as a medical practitioner. He thinks you should take an active part in life, so I suggest you take an active part in life.

You shouldn't want to do this or that, as some politicians do. He knows for sure what is morally right, but he is on the wrong path.

What you do every day should be in line with reality.Be more like Maimonides than Bernie Sanders (American politician, Democratic candidate in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections). (laughter)

04. It is useful to know all the "great truths" of other disciplines. Don't know nothing about "everything else".

As an 18-year-old who is interested in many subjects, I would like to know how broad but unspecialized people win in a professional world.

MungerThat's a good question. I don't think my growth path across multiple disciplines is suitable for most people. I thought it was interesting, so I did it.

I am better at many subjects than most people, but I don't think I will be the one who is best at dealing with differential equations. So it's a wonderful path for me, but I think the right path for others is to be professional, to be good and efficient in things that are rewarded by society.

But I think even if you follow a professional path, you should still spend 10 or 20 per cent of your time trying to understand all the "The Big Ideas" of all other disciplines.

I use the same metaphor over and over again, otherwise you will be like an one-legged man in a butt kick competition, and you are unlikely to succeed (with only one leg, if you kick someone else, you will fall). (life is diverse) you must understand the principles of all disciplines in order to live safely outside the cave (professional field).

But I don't think you should give up your job as a dentist to think about Proust. Marcel Proust, a French novelist in the 20th century, put forward the famous Proust effect in Remembrance. As long as you smell what you have smelled, it will open the memory of that time. The great idea (you should do both).

Buy Apple Inc and Exxon Mobil Corp. I think we are reasonably adapting to an increasingly difficult investment environment.

My question has to do with a comment you made about Warren Buffett a few years ago. You say that Buffett has clearly become a better investor since he was 65.

I wonder if you can share this information, maybe we haven't heard the story before? I know you commented that he is a learning machine, and we all know that he is disgusted with retail because of Diversified Retailing's investment, and so on. If during this period, his risk assessment, his vision has changed because of something, I will be very interested. Thank you.

MungerIf you are playing a game and are keen to keep learning, hone your skills, and so on. You will certainly do better with the passage of time.

Some people are better at (honing their investment skills) than others. What Warren has achieved is amazing. If Warren didn't learn, Berkshire would be a very mediocre company now, and he would never get any return on his investment. He not only laid down the rivers and mountains, but also kept every inch of the land.

We have entered one new industry after another and acquired entire enterprises, such as Iska (Iscar, Israeli company, world-renowned supplier of metal cutting tools and cutting technology). Warren would never buy it in his youth, and Graham would never buy Iska. He paid about five times its book value for Eska. That's not what Graham did.

Buffett learned from Graham, but with the passage of time, he became better. I'm getting better, too.

One of the benefits of the (investment) game we play is that you can keep learning. We're still doing it.

Imagine that we were in the news industry, but all of a sudden we bought airline stocks? How did we describe civil aviation business before? We thought it was a joke and it was a bad business. Now, if you put together the shares of different airlines that we buy, we are equivalent to owning a small airline.

We did the same thing on the railway. We said, "Railways are not good at all, there are too many of them, freight competition." "We are right that railways have been a bad business for the past 80 years. But in the end, they formed the four major railway companies, which became a much better business. Something similar is happening in the aviation industry.

Just this morning, my daughter-in-law and I were in the library. She booked a round trip ticket to Europe for about four or five hundred dollars, including tax. My first reaction was, "are we buying the aviation business?" "(laughter) this may be a good idea for the same reason as we bought the railway, but it may not be a successful investment.

I often talk to Buffett about the old days. For many years, all we did was fish in buckets. It's too easy. We don't want to shoot the fish as they swim. So we wait until they slow down, and then we fire shotguns at them. It's that simple.

But this method is becoming more and more difficult to catch fish. Our current approach is to try to gain an advantage, but we are not quite sure yet. It's still quite interesting. It's just that we don't get the same rate of return as we did when we could run around and pick the drooping fruit from the tree.

So now the way we do things has changed. We bought Exxon Mobil Corp. Do you know why Buffett bought Exxon Mobil Corp? As a cash substitute! In the past, you would never have done that.

We have a lot of cash, and we think Exxon Mobil Corp is better than holding cash in the short term. This way of thinking is different from Buffett's previous way of thinking, he has changed. When he bought the airline, he changed. When he bought Apple Inc, he changed.

Think about our years of booing about high technology: "We just don't know it", "it's not in our core competence circle" and "airlines are the worst business in the world".

And now, why are we in the media? Apple Inc and many airlines. I don't think we're crazy.I think we are reasonably adapting to an increasingly difficult investment environment.. And I don't think we are quite sure about the positions of these two companies. I just think the odds are slightly on our side.

If this is the biggest advantage we can get, we have to rely on the advantage we can get.

I always say that you should marry the best person who thinks of you. I'm afraid that's the rule of life. You must obey the greatest advantage you can get in life.

The investment environment has become so difficult that we must be satisfied with the greatest advantage we can get. On the other hand, what makes it extremely difficult is that we become extremely rich. This exchange is not bad.

I am lucky to have so many blessings, but my life is also full of mistakes and failures

What is the most meaningful thing you have ever done in your life?

MungerI think family and children are the most meaningful things in most people's lives, and I am very lucky. I don't think I'm a perfect husband. I am lucky to have so many blessings. I always ask women to have a certain tolerance for me. I was wrong in the first place, and I never corrected myself.

You people always come here as believers, as if to communicate with a religious leader. I want to take you back to history, and you will see how failed the people you trust now are in life.

When I was a freshman at Central High School in Omaha, I had a friend at home, a girl my age. The year before, she went to summer camp and met a blonde goddess, enchanting 13-year-old woman. I was a thin, stunted boy, and my friend introduced me to the blonde goddess and told me, "you must take my blonde goddess to the school dance." In order to impress the blonde goddess, I pretended to smoke, but I didn't actually smoke. She is wearing a net skirt. I accidentally set her skirt on fire! (roar with laughter)

But my reaction was quick. I poured Coca-Cola Company all over her and put out the fire at once. This is the last time I saw the blonde goddess.

After that, I said, "well, I have to spend more time with the girls." I want to receive the alphabet logo of the school team at Omaha Central High School (American schools will award the school team's initials as prizes for their achievements). Of course, I'm not good at any sports.

I went to the rifle range and learned that they would award alphabetical symbols to athletes who did well in rifle shooting competitions. I am very thin and small, so that I can use the shooting position of sitting cross-legged, with two elbows on two feet, and score 100 points. You can try. You'll break your neck. But I can score 100 every time. So I was a sharpshooter, and they gave me the alphabet logo.

But I am thin and short, stunted and skinny. I walked down the corridor, trying to impress the girls, but I didn't look back at all. What they said was, "how did such a small, ugly short man get the letter logo?" "

Then another story happens. I remember a girl named Zibby Bruington. She is a very popular senior high school student, while I am a senior two nerd. Somehow, she agreed to go to a party with me in a building at the Omaha country Club. Maybe it's because she likes a big friend of mine.

I drove my 1934 Ford to the party with a Zibby, but sleet on the way left my Ford stuck in the mud. Zibby and I had to walk for miles in sleet. That was the last time I saw Zibby Bruington.

My car was parked in the mud and I forgot to add antifreeze to the engine. The temperature suddenly dropped and the cylinder burst! Because it's too expensive to repair. I lost my car and my father wouldn't buy me a new car because my father said, "Why should I buy a new car for someone who is too stupid to add antifreeze?" "

This is the person you want to meet when you travel thousands of miles to attend the Daily Journal annual meeting! My life is a series of mistakes and failures. It goes on and on.

And when it comes to politics, I'm running for president of the Dundee Primary School Progressive Association. I made the most popular boy in school my campaign manager. I got the second place, and the first place threw me away for miles. I failed completely in politics, and there were few successful cases.

I'm telling you this because I can identify nerds, there are a lot of nerds here, and many of you can tell bad stories like me. (laughter) I want you to know that you are not hopeless, you just have to keep trying.

07. Stay focused, get up early every day, keep learning, take the initiative to delay gratification, and you will succeed

First question: which books or experiences have influenced you the most in your early career? Second question: for your most ambitious grandchildren, will you tell them where to look for business opportunities and how to find them?

MungerI don't spend time teaching my grandchildren to look for business opportunities. I don't expect so much from them. (laughter) it's hard for me even to get my grandchildren to work! In any case, I don't think there is a simple way to handle the financial situation better and better.

Obviously,If you stay focused, get up early every day, keep learning, and you are willing to take the initiative to delay gratification in your life, you will succeed.. It may not be as successful as you think, but you will succeed. So the most important thing is to persevere, stay focused, get rid of your stupidity as soon as possible, and try to avoid unreliable people. You'll do a pretty good job.

But when it comes to teaching grandchildren... I think the only possible way is to lead by example. If you want to teach your grandchildren, the best way is to correct yourself and lead by example.

(first question) speaking of books. Oh, you believers have sent me so many books that I can hardly enter my study. So I have a lot of reading now. I never miss a book. I will at least scan it quickly.

I have just read Thorpe's new book. He is a highly intelligent mathematician who (using mathematical methods) 1) wins money in casinos in Las Vegas and 2) relies on computer algorithms to make a large number of quantitative transactions. On the other hand, this guy has a happy marriage, and he himself is grateful and touching.

I really like this book, I think it is very interesting, because many of you are also nerds, may like to read love stories. I recommend Thorpe's new book.

It's fun to beat the casino in Las Vegas. Peter Kaufman once told me a story about his friend, similar to Thorpe, but more extreme.

If I remember correctly, he won 4 million dollars in casinos and had to dress up because casinos don't like people who win in casinos. Then he went to the stock market and made 4 billion dollars! Also rely on clever algorithms for trading. You know, these people are very talented in math. This approach will continue.

But I don't think most of you will do that, and only a few of you have enough mathematical talent to manipulate statistics and other things to find small algorithms that can make 4 billion dollars.

But such people exist, and some of them have similar experiences to Thorpe. So Thorpe's book is very interesting. I recommend it.

It is very important to get rid of the habit of stupid thoughts

You said, "if you don't overturn an idea you once favored throughout the year, then that year is wasted." "as we all know, you helped Buffett achieve a shift that focused on quality rather than price. Can you tell me which idea you used to be the most difficult to overturn?

MungerI've done so many stupid things.

I've been busy overthrowing bad ideas because I've always had bad ideas in my head. So it's hard for me to pick one of so many bad ideas for you. In fact, I like the practice of overthrowing bad ideas, and I think it is my responsibility to overthrow old ideas.

I know a lot of people whose main flaw in life is to rest on their laurels. This is the most common ending in life. There is a German proverb: "We always grow old too early and wise too late." This is a problem for everyone. The reason why smart people are always late is that we can't get rid of our original stupid ideas!

With one exception, in marriage, we adhere to the old ideas are conducive to the stability of the marriage. But in most areas, you should get rid of old ideas. This is a good habit, it will give you a great advantage in the fierce competition, because most people do very badly in this area.

What happens in the real world is that when you say what you think, what you do is reinforce it. At first, you have some thoughts, and then these ideas make you more and more excited and complacent, and you spread your ideas everywhere. The person who is most persuaded is yourself, because these thoughts are already in your head. You're just strengthening them harder and harder.

One of the reasons I don't spend too much time telling the world how I think the Fed should work is because I know that when I think I'm telling others how it works, I'm just strengthening these ideas in my head again. So I think you have to give yourself some psychological cues.

I don't like young people being stubborn about everything. They (those who instill ideas into others) think they know everything. Some 17-year-olds speak loudly to the world about how they think they should deal with abortion, foreign policy in the Middle East, and other things. When they cry out for what they believe in, all he does is reinforce his inherent ideas.

It is foolish that you have just begun your life and have a lot to learn.

Therefore, it is very important to get rid of the habit of stupid thoughts. What I do about this is that every time I get rid of stupid ideas, I pat myself on the back and say to myself, "can you really strengthen your good habits?" Yes, you can. "

When others don't praise you, you can give yourself encouragement. I recommend the same psychological cues to all of you. Because the price we pay for being able to accept new ideas is too high. In fact, many people die because their minds are unable to accept new ideas.

When you find those few opportunities, you must take radical action

Warren once said that if you were asked to manage a small fortune, such as $10 million, Warren had guaranteed that your compound interest would reach an annualized rate of 50 per cent. Can you give me some examples of this? I implore you to provide us with as many and as specific methods as possible.

MungerIt's not my goal to tell you how to make you rich quickly. I want to leave some mysteries so that you can have fun as you grope your way forward.

In fact, there are very few good ideas in my life, but the lesson I share with you is all you need, so don't be disappointed.

That's for sure,findThose rare opportunities时,Must be takenRadicalLet's go.This is Munger.Mode

I learned this indirectly from a man I had never masked. He is my mother's grandfather. He was a pioneer in Iowa and fought in the Black Hawk War (the war to move Indians westward). After a great setback, he finally became the richest man in town, owning banking and other industries.

My mother knew him because she had been to his home in Algona, Iowa, the big house in the center of town, the iron fence, the spacious lawn, the big barn.That's what Ingham's great-grandfather taught my mother in his later years.You only have a few opportunities in your life.. There are only a few opportunities for him to become rich.

When black land in Iowa was cheap, this guy took over farmland in Iowa. Every time he panics, he buys several farms and rents them out to thrifty Germans. Renting a farm to the Germans in Iowa is a business that doesn't lose money. But he only seized a few opportunities.

I'm afraid that's what happens in the real world... You won't have a million brilliant ideas.

These people who rely on computer algorithms will have a lot of good ideas, and they will use computers to screen the opportunities of the whole world. This is like placer mining (screening the right sand on the placer). Of course, all they find are small opportunities, and if others find out and take advantage of it, they won't be able to make any money.

And I don't think it's honorable to make a living in this way, that is, to reap a little profit from every transaction made by others through a small algorithm.

I always describe these people as rats in the granary after consuming so many social resources. I will not choose to make money like this. Money should not be earned this way. If you make money in this way, then you should do a lot of charity work, because you have a lot of sins to atone for. (laughter) I don't think this is an encouraging way.

Which industry do you like best and why is it your favorite industry?

MungerWell, my favorite industry is managing my own business. (laughter)

It's interesting and creative. This is the job that life gives me. I think you should do the work that life gives you.. Many industries have made a lot of contributions to our society, but it is difficult to make money from investment, because madness and enthusiasm drive some industries. (from this point of view) I don't have a favorite industry.

10. If you plan to participate in the game for a long time, then you'd better be able to cope with a 50% pullback without making a fuss.

What happened when your investment company lost more than half of its money in 1973 and 1974?

MungerThere's nothing to it. This is an instructive lesson.

My partnership net worth has fallen by 50% in a year, while the market has fallen by about 40%. It was a 30-year recession, when monopoly newspapers were trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of three to four. My maximum pullback from the high point is 50%.

The same thing happened three times in my Berkshire stock.

I think this is part of masculinity.If you plan to participate in this game for a long time, you'd better be able to deal with it.50%There is no need to make a fuss about the withdrawal.

So, the educational significance of this story isGo on with your life and deal with it calmly and gracefully50%Pull back. Don't try to avoid it.. (applause)

It will come. In fact, if you ask me, if it doesn't come, it's because you're not radical enough.

The best way to get a good partner is to make yourself a good partner to others.

About the tendency of human beings to misjudge psychology. How do you evaluate, deal with and manage us ordinary people? Ordinary people will always be affected by the psychological tendency of misjudgment, but you won't. How did you and Mr. Buffett become such good character identifiers?

MungerWe look smart, in part because we have chosen so many excellent people as our partners, colleagues and employees.

The same is true in Daily Journal. Gerry Salzman looks normal, but he's actually a freak. Gerry's achievements in two or three disciplines are almost beyond the reach of human beings. And he always does. By the way, he's also from the Midwest.

So we are lucky to be with so many good people. I always sayThe best way to get a good spouse is to make yourself worthy of a good spouse. And the best way to get a good partner is to make yourself a good partner to others.I think Warren and I have both done a good job in this respect. But for whatever reason, we already have these amazing partners who make us look better than we really are.

If Gerry hadn't come to Daily Journal, you wouldn't be here. We don't have a second choice to manage Daily Journal.

By the way, this happens to me all the time.Whenever we need to find an executive, the first candidate is always very different from the first choice. There has never been a situation where there are three suitable candidates at the same time, but one person is slightly better.

Every time I look for an executive, I always find only one suitable candidate, while others are dwarfs by comparison.

I think there are too few good people. Warren and I work with so many good people every time. That's one of the reasons Buffett says he tap dances to work. If you work with people Buffett comes into contact with every day, you will also tap dance to work.

They are great people. They are winning all the time. Who doesn't like to win in a good company? If you can replicate this, you will have a bright future.

I think we have an element of luck on this issue, but I can't give you luck.

Life is made up of a series of adversity, each of which is an opportunity to deal with it.

When I am as old as you, if the world has changed a lot, what qualities do you think will not change if you want to be successful?

MungerThe more difficult things are, the more difficult they are to change.The one you love will die, many difficulties will come, and you will encounter setbacks that knock you down.

It is said that the laws of thermodynamics should be restated. He can't do it. He's bound to fail. In the end, you will know that it is all over. This is the game of life. We knew from the beginning that we couldn't win, but you couldn't quit the game. It was a very interesting game. We are all faced with this ultimate problem.

But once you accept these limits, you will think about how to expand reasonably through the endowments I used to have. I don't think it's hard to do. Because you can do well compared to what you have.

When you stand at the end of your journey, you may use your ability and wisdom to help others in need, set an example for others, and so on. This is a very good thing, and difficulties will make the game interesting.

And in the process, some very strange things will happen. At the board meeting just before this meeting, we were discussing that, like computer software, humans always encounter problems when entering a complex new field, forcing you to crawl on the ground.

What I am saying is that in the long journey of life, I have found that the people who really love you are those who crawl along with you and share adversity. Not those who enjoy prosperity and happiness together. So when you struggle to pull through, this seemingly terrible adversity is actually the source of your success, your feelings, and everything else.

If you don't have adversity, you won't have these life rewards, which come from how you deal with adversity.

It is a very good idea to think that life is made up of a series of adversity, each of which is an opportunity to deal with it.

Of course I would recommend this method to everyone in the room. It works well in old age, and you will encounter a lot of unsolvable adversity, so you'd better have some skills to enjoy it.

Reason is a moral responsibility, and we all have a responsibility to change for the better.

You talked about emotions, discipline and facing adversity. Can you elaborate on how you deal with adversity and life at the spiritual level?

MungerWhen I was a child, my grandfather sent me to a church school, and the teachers told me that there was a talking snake in the Garden of Eden. I was very young at that time, but I didn't believe what they said, and I never changed my mind. This does not mean that I do not have a spiritual world, but I do not need a talking snake to restrain my behavior.

My method, part of which is also inherited from my family, is that reason is a moral obligation. If you have the ability to be rational, irrationality is a kind of moral failure.I think this is a bitter dress that we should all wear.

Even if we are all stupid, it is also a good thing to be less stupid, so I think rationality is a kind of moral responsibility. We all have a responsibility to get better. Of course, we have to be tolerant of other people who go through the journey of life with us.

I think when you are as rich and successful as we are, we should have a social safety line that would be crazy without it. This is a moral concept (not a spiritual one). I suggest doing things morally, because there are no talking snakes in the world.

You put great emphasis on the concept of "delayed gratification" today. In which aspects of life is it most valuable? In what ways should you enjoy the present rather than being honed and investing in the future?

MungerI don't think you should consume your body foolishly. And I don't think you should handle your money foolishly. And I think in many things, the only way to win is to make long-term and unremitting efforts towards the goal.

Imagine that if you want to become a doctor, you need to go through a long chastening, go through all the night shifts in the hospital, and so on. This is delayed gratification. But being a doctor is a very honorable job. Generally speaking, our doctors are very good people and they have experienced a lot.

I appreciate the life of doctors more than the lives of derivatives traders. And I think the doctor's delayed gratification is a good thing for all of us.

You can always rely on the laws of physics, but the rules of thumb in complex civilized systems are changing

The question about the circle of ability. How do you know where the boundary of the circle of ability is? Does it have to be repainted irregularly? Does it always expand or contract?

MungerYou may think you know something, but that may not be the case. If you are in a complex ecosystem, the rule of thumb that works in the first year may not work in the 40th year. So both situations are difficult to deal with.

You can always rely on the laws of physics.But complex civilizationIn the systemRule of thumbWill change with the change of civilization.So you have to put up with these two uncertainties, and you have to work longer hours. This is not a bad thing. This is interesting. We're all the same.

Who would want to live in the same state forever? Then you might as well be dead!

Edit / lydia

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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