Float glass at the bottom of the boom, the company's profit resilience highlights. The income / return net profit of 22H1 is 65.2 million, and the 22Q2 income / return net profit of YoY-1.4/-26.0%; is 3.73 million, YoY+3.5/-20.8%. Downstream demand weak superimposed raw material costs increased, glass industry profits fell sharply, the company relies on silicon and other business performance shows resilience, driven by silicon and other new business, the company is expected to have greater room for growth in the second half of the year.
Glass business performance declined, silicon wafer / silicon business hedged glass downward. 22H1's glass / solar energy / teledisplay business revenue is 44.3 million, and the YoY-17.3/+225.5/-8.1%; gross profit margin is 30.9 pounds, 33.7 pounds, 28.1 percent, 7.7 pounds, 18.0 pounds, 12.1 PCT. In glass business, float glass / photovoltaic glass / engineering glass earns YoY-20.7/-43.7/+1.1%, net profit YoY-64.3/-101.2/+216.2%. According to Zhuang Chuang information glass / soda ash / natural gas / petroleum coke 22H1 average price YoY-13.0/+64.3/+4.2/+74.7%, float glass income net profit has declined significantly; engineering glass has benefited from float glass price decline and capacity growth, profit recovery; photovoltaic glass by the substantial increase in industry production capacity and Dongguan production line technical transformation, income and net profit have declined. Due to the weak downstream demand, the cost of the teledisplay business has increased, and the performance of revenue and net profit is poor. The company restarted silicon production. Since 2022, polysilicon has risen from 5.9 to 307,000 yuan / ton, an increase of 420.3%. The hedging glass business has declined, which is an important support for the first half of the business.
The prosperity of float glass is expected to pick up, and the transformation of engineering glass is making steady progress. At present, the price of soda gas and float glass inventory have peaked and dropped, and the profit space is expected to recover. Since July, the production capacity of the supply side has been reduced by 6000 t / d to 169000 t / d, and the completion of real estate on the demand side has been promoted, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to pick up. At present, the company's engineering glass production capacity exceeds 6500 million square meters. Zhaoqing / Tianjin base is completing the transformation and release, Xianning / Wujiang base is expected to complete the expansion in 2022, Xi'an / Hefei base is expected to be completed in 2023, and the engineering glass production capacity will increase by 11.9 million square meters after completion.
The company's photovoltaic, electronics, silicon and other business lines are developing in an all-round way. Photovoltaic glass production line in Dongguan has completed technical transformation and upgrading in the first half of the year, Anhui Fengyang Phase I has completed the ignition of No. 1 and No. 2 kilns, and the construction of Beihai Base in Guangxi is under way, and the production capacity is expected to reach 9700t/d by the end of 23. Hebei Windows 110t/d production line is expected to be put into production in the second half of the year, Qingyuan Phase I high-aluminum third-generation production line will contribute to performance in 2023, 3A cover plate and TP-Sensor and other accessories will begin to supply mainstream manufacturers indirectly through the downstream, which is expected to thicken the revenue and profit of telegraphic business. The follow-up company still has a large plan for the production capacity of polysilicon, and plans to raise funds for the construction of 50,000 tons of high-purity silicon project in Qinghai to further expand the scale of silicon business. Recently, the company has signed a large order with Trina Solar Energy, which is expected to supply 70,000 tons of products from 2023 to 2026. At the same time, the company has entered the supply chain of other front-line manufacturers and has a strong guarantee for future growth.
Considering the further growth of the company's silicon business in the second half of the year, we raise our solar business revenue forecast and downgrade the float / photovoltaic / electronics / engineering glass revenue forecast with reference to the performance in the first half of the year. It is estimated that the company will have EPS0.67/0.79/1.04 yuan in 22-24 years (the original forecast EPS in 22-24 years will be 0.79 EPS 1.28 RMB 1.79 yuan). With reference to peer level, float glass / engineering glass / electronic glass / photovoltaic glass / solar energy business has been given 10/10/25/28/7XPE for 22 years, with a reasonable market capitalization of 25.7 billion yuan and a target price of 8.37 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: real estate investment is declining, raw material prices are rising, electronic glass is not as expected, and the new production line is not as expected.