Abstract: with the increase of per capita income and the aging of population in China, the market of dental industry is vast, and the market scale of hundreds of billions is expected. In the upper reaches of dentistry, the opportunities for subdivision of oral CT and dental restoration membrane are worthy of attention.
First, as China gradually steps into the aging societyChina's dental industry may usher in a golden period of development. The main logic is as follows:
The main results are as follows: 1. the main intergenerational population is aging and the rate of missing teeth is increasing.To the United States, the demographic structure of China in 2017 is similar to that of the United States in 1975: the aging rate in China (the proportion of people over 65) was 11.40%, compared with 10.51% in the United States at that time.
The aging of the United States can be divided into three stages: the rapid aging stage before 1995, the stable aging stage from 1995 to 2010, and the re-aging stage after 2010. These three stages also correspond to the three periods of "high growth rate-growth rate decreasing-growth rate rebounding" of dental consumption.There is a strong correlation between the aging process and dental consumption.
Until 2050, China's aging population will continue a period of rapid growth, so the potential demand has laid the foundation for the rapid development of the domestic dental industry.
2. The Chinese are rich.As we all know, some dental programs are not cheap. For example, the price of dental implants ranges from 3,000 to 10,000 to 20,000. In other words, teeth are not something you want to change. They are a bit expensive.
In the United States, for example, dental consumption maintained a high growth rate during the period when per capita disposable income rose from $5000 to more than $10000. From 1975 to 1985, the per capita disposable income of the United States rose from US $5657 to US $13027, and the CACR of dental consumption reached 10.46% during the period.
China's per capita disposable income is also rising from US $5000 to US $10000, thus ensuring the realization of potential demand in terms of spending power.
3. Under the macro backgroundEvent catalysis of encouraging social capital to run medicineIt is also an important driving force for the outbreak of dental growth.
Second, the market space will exceed 100 billion.
According to the data, the dental market has achieved a compound growth rate of 16.22% in the past five years, the current market size has reached 88 billion, and will exceed 100 billion in 2020.Among them, the number of dental orthodontics increased by 200000 cases per year, and the number of dental implants increased by 400000 cases per year. Compared with the penetration rate of 50 million / 10 000 people in developed countries, the domestic planting market is only 7 / 10 000 people, which is still in its infancy and the potential of the industry is far from being realized. Guoyuan Securities pointed out that in the early days, dental clinics were located in Beijing and Shanghai, and people needed to have spending power and awareness. Now dental clinics are beginning to sink in a large area, reflecting the expansion of demand from the side. In addition, under the macro background, the event catalysis of encouraging social capital to run doctors is also an important driving force for the outbreak and growth of dentistry.
Third, the future of the dental industry is so bright, what is the correct posture for investors?Guoyuan Securities said that priority should be given to the subdivision opportunities of upstream dentistry, oral CT and oral repair membrane:
Under the trend of ① oral digitization, oral CT (CBCT) instead of panoramic machine and traditional CT is a major trend. Considering the growth rate of the number of stomatologists, the total size of the CBCT market is expected to reach about 2 billion in 2025.
The market scale of ② dental restoration film in the field of dental implants is directly affected by the development of dental implant market in China. Under the condition that the price level remains unchanged, the market scale of dental restoration materials in the field of dental implants will reach 6.4 billion yuan (3.2 million * 2000) in 2020, of which the oral restoration membrane is about 30 ~ 4 billion yuan.
Fourth, in terms of the target, these three companies can be used as a reference for investors:
Tongshi Healthcare, the only target for dental listing, continues the expansion model of "General Hospital + Branch" with excellent performance growth.
Meiya Optoelectronics, domestic optoelectronic identification leader, color sorter, industrial testing and medical equipment are developing rapidly. CBCT occupies the middle and low end market, and the chair repair system will be launched soon.
Zhenghai biology, the leading enterprise of biological renewable materials, has obvious advantages in import substitution, and has a broad prospect of bone repair and membrane repair materials.