Compiled from Huachuang Business Co., Ltd. "Modern Service Industry Common sense data" equivalent "and Internal principles"
In general, the modern service industry belongs to a large consumer industry, which is similar to the traditional consumer industry, which directly connects consumers downstream, and there are some phenomena such as repetition, omission and caliber difference in data statistics and collection.Due to the lack of high-frequency, synchronous and standardized data, and relying on the data assistance of industry associations and consulting companies, there is more data noise in the market.Some of the data have serious common sense errors in the data equivalent, and some even have errors of order of magnitude. The report focuses on the common-sense data volume of the consumer services industry, data estimates that are not easily available, and underlying principles to explore how big the pie is in the industry segment.
1. Eat: food and Beverage-- large Market, High dispersion
The catering market is 4 trillion yuan (only eating out, excluding cooking at home), and the overall growth rate of the industry is about 10% (it fell to 8.6% in November 18). The growth rate is lower than that of the industry as a whole (the growth rate of above-quota catering fell to 4% in November 18).Huachuang Securities speculates that because the threshold for small stores is lower, there are more entrants, and the speed of change is faster, the growth rate is higher than that of big stores, and the rapid development of takeout drives small stores to start businesses, so the growth rate below the quota is faster.At present, public catering accounts for more than 80%, the main battlefield is leisure meals in the range of 50-120 yuan per capita, and the main consumption scene is shopping malls.
On the other hand, the catering industry is one of the choices for the floating population to concentrate on employment. The turnover rate of employees is extremely high, and it is normal for the annual turnover rate to reach 100%. Statistics show that about 4 million of employees pay social security in compliance, accounting for about 20% of the actual employees. Industry practice generally includes food and accommodation, so labor costs are also affected by rent. The demolition of illegal structures after the Daxing fire at the end of 2017 has significantly increased the labor costs of the catering industry in Beijing.
two。 Accommodation: hotel section-the rise of middle and high end, revpar is flexible to performance
According to the association's statistics, there are about 10,000 star hotels in China in 2017, of which three-star hotels account for half and five-star hotels account for less than 10%. From the perspective of transaction volume, the online rate of hotel industry in China is more than 30%. According to the survey, more than half (about 60%) of the overnight demand in the hotel industry comes from business travelers, and the rest comes from personal travel needs.
The market share of economy brands of the three major listed companies (Huazhu, first Travel and Jinjiang) in similar hotel chains has shrunk (down to about 25 per cent in 2017), while the middle and high end share has increased (to 60 per cent + by the end of 2017). In fact, the importance of budget hotels in the layout of listed companies has declined, and the three major listed companies have only slightly more than 100 new economy brands in 2017.
3. Purchase: tax exemption-- the rise of the leader under the background of consumption return
The traditional duty-free shopping scene is inside and outside the customs, often concentrated in airports, ports, high seas cruise ships, international flights, etc.; the new type of tax exemption is mostly tax-free in the city, and at present it is mainly tax-free on outlying islands in China (Sanya, Haikou, Hainan).Huachuang Securities believes that the high ping efficiency of tax exemption comes from the combined effect of high passenger orders and high turnover.According to the sales volume and sales area in 2017, the flat efficiency of Shanghai Airport and Capital Airport is about 1 million yuan / m2 and 35 ~ 400000 yuan / m2 respectively, which is the highest in the retail industry. Haitang Bay on outlying islands also has nearly 100000 efficiency. After the re-bidding of Shanghai Airport in 2018, the area has doubled, and from the perspective of guaranteed sales rent, the average annual compound growth rate is expected to be about 13% in the future.
Huachuang Securities believes that one of the long-term core logic of duty-free operation is to increase gross profit margin by expanding the scale and bringing a high premium to upstream suppliers.Over the past 15 years, Dufry revenue has increased 13 times, and the gross profit margin has increased, from 41.42% in 2002 to 58.55% in 2016. The increase in tax exemption has significantly accelerated the overall gross profit margin.
4. Performing arts / theme park: low marginal cost, high gross profit margin and high net profit margin
The total passenger flow of the top 10 theme park groups in the world in 2017 was 476 million, of which Walt Disney Company ranked first with six major global projects. As a global theme park, it received more than 150 million visitors throughout the year. The top single theme parks in the world often receive tens of millions of people.
Huachuang Securities believes that the marginal cost of performing arts is lower, and its performance is more flexible as the attendance rises.Take Songcheng Performing Arts as an example, the gross profit margin of Songcheng mature project is 80% +, and the net profit is about 50%.
Huachuang Securities believes that the potential markets such as Shanghai and Xi'an, where the company will replicate in different places in the future, are larger than those currently operating in Hangzhou, Sanya, Lijiang and other places, with successful and mature operation and marketing experience in the past, it is expected to provide a strong driving force for the company's future growth.In addition, it is also necessary to increase the revisit rate, increase secondary consumption, optimize the income structure, and promote steady performance growth.