Source of this article: time Finance and Economics author: Wu Kai

Editor's note:

With the acceleration of electrification of the global automobile industry, the lithium industry chain is staging a crazy myth of creating wealth, especially upstream lithium mines and lithium salt merchants. With the previous layout, the upstream enterprises that "have mines at home" have made a lot of money, and their net profits have soared a hundred times; however, the sharp rise in lithium prices has also doubled the cost pressure on downstream battery factories and whole car companies. In such a market, a "big bet" involving the whole industry chain is being opened: behind the profiteering mining enterprises, lithium salt merchants, battery factories and main engine factories are all involved. In the era of new energy, only by winning thousands of "lithium" can we win thousands of miles.

From now on, time Finance will launch a series of reports to take stock of this protracted "battle for lithium mines" from the perspectives of capital, character stories and industrial geography.

From 499000 yuan / ton to 510000 yuan / ton, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen frequently in the past 20 days, which has once again aroused the great concern of the lithium industry chain. Just over a year ago, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate hovered around 50,000 yuan / ton.

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Battery-grade lithium carbonate is not the only raw material in the industrial chain whose prices have skyrocketed; prices such as PVDF and lithium hexafluorophosphate have also risen since 2021. Among them, the price of lithium battery positive binder and diaphragm coating material PVDF has increased by as much as 400% in the past year. Although the current prices of some materials have fallen, they are still at a high level.

With the skyrocketing prices of all kinds of lithium electricity raw materials, enterprises in the upper reaches of the industrial chain with lithium ore and lithium salt are currently "sitting on Jinshan", making a lot of money by virtue of the right to speak on the raw materials. In the middle and lower reaches of the lithium industry chain, although they are restrained by the cost of lithium raw materials, they are also accelerating their expansion under the background of the overall trend of the new energy vehicle industry. Up and down the lithium industry chain is setting off a wave of wealth creation.

Lithium power industry chain set off a wave of wealth creation

Since the beginning of this year, the upstream lithium mine and lithium salt enterprises can be called the brightest existence in the wave of making wealth in the lithium industry chain.

In the semi-annual report just released not long ago, for example, the revenue of lithium raw materials enterprises such as Tianqi Lithium Industry, Salt Lake shares and Ganfeng Lithium all increased by more than 100%. In terms of net profit over the same period, the above-mentioned enterprises increased by more than 300% year-on-year. Tianqi lithium industry leads the industry with a net profit increase of more than 119 times.

Unit: 100 million yuan Photo Source: times Financial system data Source: enterprise Financial report

On the contrary, although a number of A-share power battery companies also have significant revenue growth in the same period, but compared with the upstream raw material enterprises, their profitability is not superior. Take Ningde era, the leader of the power battery industry, as an example, the revenue of Ningde era reached 112.9871 billion yuan in the first half of this year, with revenue growth of 156.32% over the same period last year. However, in the Ningde era, the profit in the same period was only 8.168 billion yuan, which was less than that of Tianqi Lithium Industry and Salt Lake Co., Ltd.

Unit: 100 million yuan Photo Source: times Financial system data Source: enterprise Financial report

"We usually encounter complaints from some customers that the whole car factory basically doesn't make a lot of money. Did your battery factory take all the profits? In fact, although the Ningde era has not lost money this year, it is struggling on the brink of profit. " "you can imagine where the profits are going," Wu Kai, chief scientist of the Ningde era, said in July. "

Behind the "lithium mine is comparable to a gold mine", "it is better to sell cars than to sell batteries and better to sell mines", which seems to be the epitome of the gold absorption capacity of different types of enterprises in the current lithium power industry chain. The reason behind this is closely related to the rise in the price of lithium materials.

Yu Qingjiao, secretary-general of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and chairman of the Battery 100 Association, told time Finance that the repeated global COVID-19 epidemic affected the mining and transportation of upstream raw materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel; geopolitical uncertainties also aggravated the instability of resource supply; superimposed market supply and demand and hype and other factors, the price of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate showed a trend of sharp rise for a long time.

The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 510000 yuan per ton on Sept. 20, nearly eight times higher than at the beginning of last year and nearly 80 percent higher than at the beginning of this year, according to the business society.

In addition to upstream lithium mines and lithium salt enterprises, other suppliers in the lithium industry chain are also important beneficiaries of this lithium mining boom, such as suppliers of power battery electrolytes, separators, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other materials.

Unit: 100 million yuan Photo Source: times Financial system data Source: enterprise Financial report

According to incomplete statistics, in the A-share listed companies mainly engaged in battery electrolyte, cobalt-nickel materials, positive / negative materials, diaphragms and other business, the vast majority of revenue and net profit increased in the first half of this year. The revenue capacity of many companies is close to that of star enterprises in the industrial chain, such as Ningde era and Xinwanda.

Among them, China Molybdenum, who produces cobalt, copper and other new energy metal materials, ranks at the forefront of the lithium industry chain with revenue of 91.77 billion yuan. With revenue of 173.863 billion yuan in 2021, it ranks 74th on the 2022 Fortune China 500 list, up 18 places from 2021. The effect of lithium electroenrichment can be seen.

Yu made his own judgment on the price trend in related fields in the lithium industry chain. He said that due to the recent decline in the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and VC, the prices of electrolytes actually went down as a whole; the prices of diaphragm and anode materials were relatively stable, with a small increase; but the prices of cathode materials would still rise significantly as the upstream lithium salt prices remained high.

Lithium electricity "gold rush" hot! Industrial chain entrepreneurs collectively attack the rich list

Lithium electric heating not only drives industry companies to become rich, but also brings entrepreneurs in the lithium industry chain to the spotlight.

In 2021, a number of entrepreneurs in the lithium industry chain were named on the Forbes China mainland Rich list. Among them, Zeng Yuqun, founder and chairman of Ningde era, ranked third on the list with a wealth of 327.2 billion yuan.

In addition to Zeng Yuqun, Rongjie shares (Rongjie Group) Lu Xiangyang (119.8 billion yuan), Tianhua Super Clean Pei Zhenhua (94.7 billion yuan), Yiwei LiNeng Liu Jincheng family (74.1 billion yuan), Enjie shares Li Xiaoming family (67 billion yuan), Zhongwei shares Deng Weiming family (58.4 billion yuan) and other lithium industry chain entrepreneurs all have a wealth of more than 50 billion yuan, among the ranks of domestic super-rich.

Not only that, according to time financial statistics, a total of 13 lithium industry chain entrepreneurs (including families) in mainland China entered the top 100 in 2021. It is more than double that of 2020 (fifth place). The wealth value of entrepreneurs who have been on the list twice and the ranking of the list have also greatly improved-Zeng Yuqun has increased his wealth by 193.1 billion yuan in one year, while the other four entrepreneurs have also more than doubled their wealth.

Among the entrepreneurs on the list last year, there are many entrepreneurs from the field of raw materials in the upper reaches of the lithium power industry, such as LV Xiangyang, chairman of Rongjie (Rongjie Group), Pei Zhenhua, chairman of Tianhua Super Clean, and Jiang Weiping family of Tianqi Lithium Industry. Once again, it shows the money-making ability of players in the upper and middle reaches of the industrial chain.

Note: time Finance will make statistics on the net profit data of enterprises in the first half of 2022 to facilitate readers to make a more intuitive comparison of the profit situation of various enterprises.

Huaxin Securities said in the research report that the supply and demand of the lithium industry remains tight, and prices are expected to remain strong. The market demand is in the peak season, and the discharge volume of the battery factory is gradually increasing. Coupled with the low domestic lithium salt inventory, the price of lithium salt is expected to remain prosperous.

Yu Puritanism told time Finance: "judging from the recent trend of the industrial chain, lithium prices are expected to hit a new high this year." With the alleviation of the mismatch between supply and demand, lithium prices are expected to decline gradually in the second half of next year. As the price of upstream materials slowly returns to rationality, the cost of power batteries is expected to maintain an average annual decline of about 5%. "

According to the statistics of traffic insurance caliber of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries in China in the first half of 2022 is about 100.24GWh, an increase of 116% over the same period last year. Among them, Ningde era power battery installed up to 50.17GWh, market share of 50%. BYD is not far behind, with a 23% market share for 22.94GWh power batteries. With the further improvement of the permeability of domestic new energy vehicles, the demand for power batteries will still show an increasing trend.

In this context, lithium electroheating is still expected to last for a certain period of time, and the enrichment effect of lithium electroheating will continue.