Hot news

• Dr. Doom's latest violent theory: this recession will be "long and ugly", and US stocks will fall by 30-40%.

Dr. Doomsday, known for his successful prediction of the US subprime crisis, made another bearish comment on the market, this time pointing out that the US and global economies would fall into recession by the end of 2022, triggering a significant fall in US stocks. In an interview with the media this week, Roubini said that even if there was a normal recession, the S & P 500 would fall 30 per cent, while in a "real hard landing", the index could fall nearly 40 per cent. Roubini believes that this time there will be the stagflation of the 1970s and the massive debt pressures common in the financial crisis. Roubini stressed that this will not be a short and shallow recession, but a serious, long and ugly one. He expects the recession to last throughout 2023.

• The Federal Reserve's economic forecast is about to be announced, and the "unemployment rate" may hit a record high.

When the bitmap is released on Wednesday, Fed officials will digitally show the economic warnings made in recent weeks, and forecasts for interest rates and unemployment are expected to rise sharply. Officials are expected to raise benchmark interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row during the Fed's two-day policy meeting in Washington on Tuesday. In addition, the federal funds rate futures market estimates that the chances of the Fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points after Wednesday's meeting are as high as 82 per cent, according to CME's Fed Watch tool. The next phase of the austerity cycle will pose greater economic risks. Their median forecast for unemployment has been stable at around 4 per cent since before the outbreak, and raising that estimate would mark a major shift in the thinking of policy makers. Powell hinted at this possibility at a news conference on July 27th, when he said the pace at which vacancies had been filled had declined, suggesting that "unemployment must have risen significantly."

• The two-year Treasury yield hit a 15-year high of 4%, and the dollar index rose back above the 110 mark.

The two-year Treasury yield hit a 15-year high of 4%, the 10-year yield hit an 11-year high, and the 30-year yield hit an eight-year high. The dollar index rose back above the 110 mark, close to a 20-year high, and basically recovered its decline since September 7, while non-US currencies fell generally.

• ECB President Christine Lagarde: the central bank is expected to raise interest rates further

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Sept. 20 that interest rates are expected to rise further at a later meeting. It would be unwise to take targeted inflation expectations for granted. The ECB will decide to raise interest rates one by one at each subsequent meeting. The inflation outlook will determine the end of the rate hike cycle.

• JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO: the US economy is full of gloom. Strengthening banking supervision will do more harm than good at present.

Top US investment bank JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO Jamie Dimon wrote in his latest testimony that he believes the US economy is extremely risky and should not continue to tighten controls on big banks in the current environment. In his newly released testimony, Dimon stressed that although the United States has strong consumer spending and job market, it includes supply chain bottlenecks, conflict between Russia and Ukraine, high inflation, and the Fed's rapid monetary tightening. All indicate that the days ahead will be more difficult. In his testimony, Mr. Dimon wrote that strict rules requiring banks to hold more capital would curb banks' ability to lend and pose a huge risk to the economy, especially in the current environment. In addition, the move will also deal a blow to the competitiveness of banks, as well as to the US banking sector.

• The world's largest oil company warns that the energy crisis will be serious and lasting, and there is policy miscalculation in western countries.

Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Aramco, the world's largest oil company, has publicly warned that the current energy crisis will be "serious and long-term" due to chronic underinvestment in traditional energy. In his speech on Tuesday, Nasser made it clear that when the global economy gets back on track, it will lead to a rebound in demand, wiping out the only spare capacity left in the market. By the time the world realizes that there is this "blind spot", it will be too late. Nasser specifically pointed out that Europe will face a "colder and more difficult winter". Electricity price limits and "windfall tax" are short-sighted policies. Freezing energy bills does not solve the fundamental problem, and taxing companies that want them to increase capacity will not solve the problem.

• With the rise of natural gas prices in Europe, it is difficult to completely eliminate the risk of winter supply.

European natural gas prices have rebounded after falling for three days in a row, and traders are assessing whether efforts to ease the continent's winter supply crisis are sufficient to avoid supply shortages. Benchmark natural gas futures settlement prices rose 6.6% on Tuesday, reversing a decline that had earlier hit its lowest level since late July. European governments are deploying billions of euros to ensure an adequate supply of natural gas. However, the threat of further disruptions to Russian supplies remains, particularly through Ukraine's remaining major gas pipelines. If the winter weather is unusually cold, it may also lead to a sharp tightening of supplies and depletion of storage before the end of the colder period.

Review of US stocks

• Us stocks closed down about 1 per cent to a two-month low as the Fed's interest rate meeting kicked off.

Us stocks opened lower, with all three major indices closing down about 1 per cent to their lowest level in two months. The Dow fell 1.01%, the S & P 500 fell 1.13%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.95%.

Star technology stocks are up 1.6% only, while Amazon.Com Inc and Alphabet Inc-CL C are down nearly 2%. Apple Inc Meta is down 1.3%.

Insurance and oil and gas sectors led the decline, with Nabs Industries down nearly 5%, Amfulai Reinsurance Group down more than 4%, and Ford Motor closed down 12%, the biggest one-day decline since January 2011.

Hot Chinese stocks were mixed, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index falling 0.1%. Qudian Inc and Weibo Corp rose more than 4%, DouYu International Holdings Limited rose more than 2%, Bilibili Inc. and BABA fell more than 2%. Among the new forces in car building, NIO Inc. fell by more than 2%, while XPeng Inc. rose nearly 2%.

• The most prospective analyst said Apple Inc would look forward to the fourth quarter, while Apple Inc's share price rose against the market.

Well-known$Apple (AAPL.US)$Analyst Guo Mingyi predicts that after the conversion of the production line, iPhone 14 Pro series shipments account for 60% of total iPhone 14 shipments at 2H22, compared with the previous estimate of 55%. IPhone 14 Pro Max accounts for about 30% of total iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22, making it the most popular iPhone 14 model. The iPhone portfolio is improving, so Apple is likely to present a positive outlook for 4Q22 at its earnings meeting at the end of October (assuming that iPhone's shipments have not declined significantly after late November).

• Ford's Q3 guidelines shocked Wall Street, plunging more than 12% and dragging down the auto sector

$Ford Motor (F.US)$It tumbled more than 12 per cent, the biggest one-day drop since January 2011. Earlier, Ford disclosed that delivery of about 40, 000 to 45000 vehicles was expected to be affected by the lack of certain parts at the end of the third quarter. Ford expects third-quarter EBIT of $14 to $1.7 billion, below the market consensus of $3 billion, but the company maintains its full-year forecast. In addition, inflation-related supplier costs in the third quarter will be about $10 higher than initially expected. Goldman Sachs Group analyst Mark Delaney expressed surprise at Ford's third-quarter earnings guidance because Ford is thought to have made progress on supply chain bottlenecks.

• Tesla, Inc. battery equipment caused substation fire in California, USA.

According to several media reports, a substation of the Pacific Watt Power (PG&E) Company in Monterey, California, caught fire on Sept. 20, local time. The fire source was in the substation.$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Caused by Megapack's giant battery energy storage device. According to a spokesman for the company, the fire was discovered at about 01:30 on the 20th. After the fire, nearby residents were evacuated urgently, and the road was blocked as a result of the fire.

• NVIDIA Corp released 40 series flagship graphics cards: partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, whose performance was 2-4 times higher than that of the previous generation.

Tuesday local time$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The global developer conference was held in September, while talking about artificial intelligence and meta-universe development platform Metaverse, we also took the time to release two graphics cards to officially unveil the RTX 40 series. According to NVIDIA Corp CEO Huang Renxun, the 40 series display chip will adopt a new "Ada" architecture, the name is also a tribute to the 19th century British mathematician Edda Lovelace, who is also considered to be the earliest computer programmer on earth. This chip can contain up to 76 billion transistors, using Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd "4N" process process and Micron Technology Inc's G6X memory chip, the theoretical energy efficiency is double that of the previous generation 8nm process, which means that it has higher overclocking potential.

• General Motors Co supports stricter US emissions targets for 2030

$General Motors (GM.US)$The plan supports stricter federal emission standards to ensure that at least 50% of new cars will be zero-emission by 2030. Mary Barra, the company's chief executive, said the company also plans to eliminate "emissions from new light vehicles" by 2035.

• United Airlines withdraws 25 Boeing 777-200 aircraft from its route

On September 20, local time, the Federal Aviation Administration said that United Airlines this week sent 25 of its aircraft.$Boeing (BA.US)$The 777-200 aircraft withdrew from its route because United was unable to carry out the necessary inspection of the leading edge panel of the wing of the aircraft.

• Amazon.Com Inc's growth rate of cargo flights hit a new low since the epidemic.

E-commerce giant$Amazon (AMZN.US)$COVID-19 's cargo flights are growing at their slowest pace since the outbreak began, in the latest sign that the company is adapting to a slowdown in demand. Amazon.Com Inc Airlines (Amazon Air) averaged about 194 cargo flights a day earlier this month, up 3.8 per cent from March, according to researchers. This is the slowest growth rate in the periodic report prepared by the Institute about every six months since May 2020.

Turnover of US stocks on Tuesday TOP20

The Prospect of Hong Kong City

• On Tuesday, Beishui increased its position in Tencent by more than HK $400m.

On Tuesday, southbound funds bought a net HK $1.755 billion, while Tencent, Byd Company Limited and CNOOC Limited received a net purchase of HK $463 million, HK $138 million and HK $132 million respectively.

New Oriental Education & Technology Group online, Sunny Optical Technology and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China received a net sale of HK $127 million, HK $120 million and HK $114 million respectively.

It is worth noting that southward funds have bought Tencent for 18 consecutive days, totaling about 53.7.HK $100 million.

• Shenzhen Maishi Technology, a subsidiary of Smoore International Holdings Limited, received a license for a tobacco monopoly production enterprise.
  

$Smoore International Holdings Limited (06969.HK)$According to the announcement, on September 20, 2022, Shenzhen Maishi Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, received a tobacco monopoly production enterprise license issued by the Tobacco Monopoly Bureau, valid from September 5, 2022 to September 30, 2023. As of the date of this announcement, a total of 6 subsidiaries of the group have obtained the license of tobacco monopoly production enterprise.

• Clover organism-B COVID-19 candidate Vaccine obtained EU GMP Certification

Clover Bio-B (02197.HK) $announced that the company's contract developer has been certified by the EU Pharmaceutical production quality Management Code for the production of clover's main COVID-19 vaccine candidate SCB-2019 (CpG1018/ aluminum adjuvant). The company is committed to submitting the application for registration of SCB-2019 to the State Drug Administration of China, EMA and the World Health Organization in the second half of 2022, and is ready for commercialization in China and the world after approval.

• China Electric Power plans to sell all its shares in four affiliated new energy companies for about 1.473 billion yuan.

$CHINA POWER (02380.HK)$It is announced that the establishment of a limited partnership fund and the possible sale of equity interests in certain subsidiaries of the company to special purpose vehicles under the partnership fund to jointly develop and further expand the Group's clean energy projects. On September 20, 2022, the company (transferor), the special purpose vehicle (transferee) and the relevant target company entered into four equity transfer agreements under which the transferor agreed to sell and the transferee agreed to acquire the entire equity interest in the target company, the total consideration is RMB 1.473 billion.

• Tencent spent HK $353 million to buy back 1.2 million shares on September 20th.

$TENCENT (00700.HK)$It is announced that on 20 September 2022, 1355 shares will be issued under the share option Plan (other than those exercised by the directors of the issuer) at an issue price of HK $256.06 per share. On September 20, 2022, the company bought back 1.2 million shares at a price of HK $292.4 to HK $296.4 per share, at a cost of HK $353 million.

Focus today

Key words: RLX Technology Inc. Financial report, Tencent Music landing on HKEx

Wednesday,Financial report$RLX Technology (RLX.US)$The financial report will be released.

In terms of new shares$TME-SW (01698.HK)$It is expected to log on to the HKEx on the same day.。Tencent Music is currently the largest online music entertainment platform in China in terms of monthly active users, according to iResearch. In the first quarter of 2022, the company had 604 million monthly active users of online music and 162 million monthly active users of social entertainment.

Niuniu morning reading:

I can avoid disaster.Because I throw it too early every time.

-- Bernard Baruch