Tuesday, September 20th, called "look" by the market$Apple (AAPL.US)$Guo Mingyi, the most accurate analyst of the company's dynamics and Tianfeng International, released the recent trend forecasts of Apple Inc, iPhone 14 and the supply chain.

Guo Mingyi believes that after the conversion of the production line, iPhone 14 Pro series shipments account for 60% of the total iPhone 14 shipments in 2H22, compared with the previous estimate of 55%.

IPhone 14 Pro Max accounts for about 30% of total iPhone 14 shipments in the second half of this year, making it the most popular iPhone 14 model. He predicted that at the earnings meeting at the end of October, Apple Inc would put forward a positive outlook for the fourth quarter of this year if iPhone's shipments did not decline significantly after late November.

He believes that if Apple Inc has a positive outlook for the fourth quarter, the revenue and profits of the major suppliers of the iPhone 14 Pro series may have potential room for upward adjustment in the fourth quarter.

These suppliers mainly include:$Sony (SONY.US)$(exclusive supplier of 48MP CIS); Daoli (main supplier of telephoto lens and ultra wide-angle VCM); LG Innotek (exclusive supplier of rear CCM); Alps (exclusive supplier of telephoto VCM); Minebea (main supplier of ultra-wide-angle VCM); Samsung display (almost exclusive supplier of Pro panels); Industrial USI / Hongzhun (main supplier of stainless steel metal frames); Hon Hai (exclusive supplier of stainless steel series).

Apple Inc's shares rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, rising nearly 1.6 per cent, making it the biggest gainer in the s & p; the company has risen nearly 5 per cent in the past two days.

Apple Inc's share price is down nearly 10 per cent from its August high, but is still up more than 20 per cent from its June low.

On Monday, Guo Mingyi said on social media that Apple Inc had asked Hon Hai to switch the production line of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro model, which is equivalent to raising the iPhone 14 Pro shipment forecast for the fourth quarter by about 10%.

My latest survey points out that due to the strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro series, Apple has asked Hon Hai to change the production line of iPhone 14 to that of iPhone 14 Pro series, which will help to improve Apple's product portfolio / iPhone ASP in 4Q22. According to the production line conversion rate, it is equivalent to Apple increasing the estimated shipment of the iPhone 14 Pro series in 4Q22 by about 10%.

At present, only a small number of zero component suppliers' order changes reflect Hon Hai's production line conversion (such as Samsung Display), and I expect that most suppliers will also receive Apple's iPhone 14 Pro series additional orders in the coming weeks.

Last week, Guo Mingyi said the pre-order results for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus were "bad", suggesting that Apple Inc's positioning of the two new standard models may have failed.

At present, these two products account for about 45% of the entire series of shipments. If demand does not change after the launch, Apple Inc may cut shipments of the two models in November and beyond within weeks.

For the other two models, iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, the pre-order results are "neutral" and "good" compared with iPhone 13 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max.

But the pre-sale result does not mean that Apple Inc will immediately increase the order for the Pro model. Apple Inc will make a decision based on how long the strong demand for the Pro model can last during the recession. He analyzed at the time that strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro models was likely to continue until at least November.