Global macro

• The futures of the three major US stock indexes fell before Tuesday's trading.

  

• When will the Fed turn? Goldman Sachs Group: raise interest rates four more times by the end of next year, and interest rates may be cut in 2024

The Fed is unlikely to shift to and cut its benchmark interest rate before 2024 as it tries to contain the worst inflation in 40 years, according to a team of Goldman Sachs Group strategists. Goldman Sachs Group, an economist, predicted in a report on Monday that the Fed would raise interest rates four more times between now and the end of 2023, eventually keeping them in the 4.25%-4.50% range until 2024.

• Powell fought a successful "war of expectations": the market is pricing a hawkish Fed.

In his last speech before this month's FOMC meeting, Mr Powell said the Fed needed to act directly and forcefully on inflation and needed to move on until the fight against inflation was done. Now it seems that the Fed has regained its credibility and the market is moving in accordance with Powell's hawkish position. After the release of higher-than-expected inflation data last week, the market braced itself for another violent rate hike by the Fed this week: betting on a deeper reversal of the US bond yield curve, further falls in equities and a stronger dollar.

• Us 10-year real yield rises to its highest level since 2011

Us 10-year real yields rose to 1.17 per cent, the highest since 2011.

• Enjoy the cheap oil as soon as possible! Bank of America warns that oil prices will exceed $100 next year

The average price of regular gasoline in the United States on Monday was $3.67 a gallon, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). While American drivers were taking a break from the fall in oil prices, Bank of America Corporation warned that the recent downward trend in oil prices may have come to an end. BofA believes that crude oil prices will break through $100 a barrel by the end of this year and remain at that level through 2023, making life more difficult for consumers.

• The US housing market has entered the winter ahead of time. Economist: the Fed may raise interest rates less than expected in November

Interest rates on 30-year mortgages in the US have risen above 6 per cent for the first time since 2008 as the Fed continues to raise interest rates sharply this year, a significant blow to the US housing market. The chief economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics believes that with the recent deep correction in the US housing market, it is expected to attract the attention of Fed officials that the Fed may raise interest rates by less than investors expected in November.

• Gold has been eclipsed by high inflation. When will the Silent Gold shine again?

Investors had expected high inflation this year to push gold prices higher. At the moment, however, the situation is moving in the opposite direction. The most actively traded COMEX gold futures contract is set to fall for six consecutive months this month, a decline that has plunged about 14% so far. This is an extremely rare downturn for a class of assets that have been labeled as safe haven. However, many investors expect the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate hikes next year, which could boost gold prices by bringing down US bond yields and the dollar. JPMorgan Chase & Co analysts expect gold to rise to about $1820 an ounce by the end of next year.

Hot news

• Star technology stocks fell before the market.

• Blame the Yuan Universe? Zuckerberg's value has shrunk by $71 billion.

Since this year$Meta Platforms (META.US)$Chief Executive Zuckerberg's fortune more than halved to $71 billion, making it the largest number of super-rich people tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. Zuckerberg has a net worth of $55.9 billion, ranking 20th among the world's billionaires and the lowest since 2014, the report said. Laura Martin, a senior Internet analyst at Needham & Co.Zuckerberg, said the company's investment in Metasmos had also weighed on the share price, and he expected the project to lose "a lot" of money over the next three to five years.

• Ford warns that the cost of Q3 will soar by $1 billion, and the shortage of chips is still a stumbling block to the auto industry.

F.US (Ford) $warned on Monday that it expected to incur additional costs of $1 billion in the third quarter due to inflation and supply chain problems.The company added that supply problems had led to a shortage of parts, affecting the delivery of about 40000-45000 vehicles, mostly high-margin trucks and SUV. As of press time, Ford was down more than 4% before trading.

• Apple Inc announced that the price of App Store in many countries will rise, but no adjustment has been made in China.

$Apple (AAPL.US)$It was announced on Monday that the prices of App and App domestic items on App Store (except automatic renewal subscriptions) will be increased as early as October 5, 2022, including Chile, Egypt, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Poland, South Korea, Sweden, Vietnam and all regions using the euro. It is worth mentioning that China App Store is not in the ranks of price adjustment this time.

• "wooden Sister" bought more than 120000 shares of General Motors Co more than four months later.

On Monday, "wooden Sister" Cathie Wood$ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ.US)$Buy more than 120000 shares$General Motors (GM.US)$This is the first time that ARK funds have bought the stock since May 9. General Motors Co's shares fell more than 50 per cent in the year to July, but are picking up as the company is betting on selling cheap electric cars.

• Change Healthcare rose more than 7% before trading, and UnitedHealth Group Inc's acquisition company was approved.

The transaction of $UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.US) $to acquire medical information company $Change Healthcare (CHNG.US) $for $7.8 billion was approved by the court. The deal had previously been subject to an antitrust lawsuit from the US Department of Justice, citing the possibility that UnitedHealth Group Inc would control large amounts of health care data. As of press time, Change Healthcare was up more than 7% before trading.

Focus on China-listed stocks

• The pre-market trend of popular US-listed stocks diverged.

• Tencent denies media reports that he is considering selling shares in DiDi Global Inc. and Meituan.

There are reports today that$Tencent ADR (TCEHY.US)$Is considering reducing its holdings in$Meituan-W (03690.HK)$、$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$The stakes held by companies such as those provide funds for share buybacks and new business, but Tencent denied the report. A spokesman for Tencent said that Tencent did not need to raise funds, nor did he have a timetable for such a reduction of equity holdings. The Wechat operator recently completed an assessment of its global portfolio and identified companies such as DiDi Global Inc. as potential reduction targets, Dow Jones reported earlier Tuesday. At one point, KE Holdings Inc. fell nearly 4 per cent before trading.

• XPeng Inc. rose slightly before the market, and the G9 listing conference will be held tomorrow night.

On the face of the news, according to$XPeng (XPEV.US)$According to official WeChat, the launch of XPeng Inc. 's G9 listing is scheduled for 19:00 on September 21. In addition, the city NGP has begun to pilot in Guangzhou, one after another to some XPeng Inc. P5 users. Because of the different policies of the city, the pilot project is only carried out in Guangzhou. After the relevant procedures are submitted and approved, they will be released in full as soon as possible. As of press time, XPeng Inc. rose slightly before trading.

• Trip.com rose more than 2% before the trading, and tourism warmed up as the National Day holiday approached.

TRIP COM GRP LTD (TCOM.US) $data show that since the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day tourism has entered a steady growth phase, with an average daily order growth rate of more than 30 per cent. Judging from the current product booking trend, the National Day travel booking half a month in advance is mainly a long-term tour, and the surrounding local booking has also entered a heating up stage. As of press time, Trip.com was up more than 2% before trading.

Pre-market turnover of US stocks TOP20

Reminder of the macro calendar of US stocks

20:30 the total number of new housing starts in August in the United States is annualized.

20:30 Total number of construction permits in August in the United States

04:30 US crude oil inventory for the week from 21 September to 16 September