Zhitong Financial APP learned that Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that consumers are optimistic about the growth track under shock recovery, while manufacturers are concerned about downstream inventory inflection points. On the clothing consumer side, the epidemic situation has improved since June, consumption has maintained a good momentum from July to August, local sports brands have maintained good growth, it is optimistic to maintain the trend of shock recovery in the follow-up, and the sports track has maintained a growth advantage. On the manufacturing export side, external demand is expected to weaken but costs fall, exchange rate changes continue to be positive, and are optimistic about the layout opportunities of enterprises with outstanding medium-and long-term growth after the decline of brand inventory.
Investment advice:Key recommendations of Hong Kong stocks$LI NING (02331.HK)$、$ANTA SPORTS (02020.HK)$、$SHENZHOU INTL (02313.HK)$、$XTEP INT'L (01368.HK)$、$BOSIDENG (03998.HK)$、$Topsports International Holdings Limited (06110.HK)$The A shares mainly recommend 300979.SZ Group, 603055.SH, 002003.SZ, 002832.SZ, 002154.SZ, 605138.SH and 000726.SZ.
Data tracking:
1) Brand retail: clothing retail increased by 5% under a low base in August, and the online performance of key brands is better. Clothing retail sales in August from a low base year-on-year + 5.1%, but less than the same period in 2019 than in July; July 2022 Tmall JD.com sports shoes / clothing year-on-year-9% color 17% In August, key brand Tmall flagship stores, Anta / FILA/ Li Ning Co. Ltd. / Xtep, respectively, compared with the same period last year, + 9%, 11%, 1%, 13%, 33%, 33%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 33%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37%, 37% and 23%, respectively, and the top three of the sales of fashion sports shoes are Nike Inc, Adi Li Ning and Adidas. The top three luxury goods sales are LV, Gucci and Balenciaga.
2) Manufacturing exports: if Vietnam's export growth slows in August compared with 2019, domestic exports are still better. Vietnam's textile exports increased by 23% in August. Compared with 2019, Vietnam's textile exports increased by 11% in July / August compared with 2019. Domestic textile and clothing exports increased by 0% and 5% in August, with an apparent deceleration, but textile exports increased by 26% in July / August compared with 2019. Clothing exports increased by 17% and 18%. In the past week, the operating rate of Shengze looms was-6 percentage points to 66% compared with the same period last year, reflecting weak domestic demand, but the decline has narrowed compared with August (- 12%).
3) cost: the price of raw materials has decreased compared with the previous period. Domestic cotton prices continued to maintain a low level after the previous round of price cuts, and foreign cotton prices rebounded slightly to 2-22000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of August, but still lower than in the second quarter; PA66 slices showed a slight downward trend after August, and the cost pressure of manufacturing enterprises is expected to be small.
Industry trends: us clothing store sales in August + 0.4% (June / July-0.3% picks 0.2%); August UK clothing and footwear retail sales + 8.4% (June / July + 12.5% Universe 15.7%); US holiday retail sales growth is expected to slow; Himm third quarter revenue growth is only 3% + 24% earnings of Zara parent company in the first half.
Risk Tips:Recurrent epidemic situation; worsening competition; fluctuation of raw material prices; systemic risk.