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全球TOP20基金二季度如何配置中国?

How will the global TOP20 fund allocate China in the second quarter?

中信證券研究 ·  Sep 20, 2022 14:08

Author: Xu Guanghong; Wang Yihan

Source: CITIC study

As of mid-late September, the position data of overseas fund companies in the second quarter were basically disclosed. According to our statistical analysis of the top 20 heavy positions of 20 TOP fund companies that hold Chinese stocks, 22Q2's major overseas funds have increased their heavy holdings in Chinese stocks by 6.5% to US $371.5 billion month-on-month, and the local domestic epidemic has been gradually brought under control in the second quarter. Stable growth, post-epidemic relief and other policies have warmed up the preference of overseas major funds for the allocation of Chinese stocks.From a sub-industry point of view, the main allocation direction of the new funds in the second quarter is the large consumption that has benefited from the recovery after the epidemic, the Internet leader, which continues to benefit from the rising risk appetite, and the new energy vehicle sector with high prosperity on the racetrack; while the energy and banking sectors have generally been reduced.On the level of individual stocks, excluding the impact of stock prices, high-quality Internet leader$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$$JD.com, Inc.-SW (09618.HK)$And the new energy vehicle sector.$Li Auto-W (02015.HK)$$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Wait for the addition of overseas mainstream institutions.

22Q2 overseas major fund allocation of Chinese stocks increased slightly.

According to our statistical analysis of the top 20 heavy positions held by the 20 largest fund companies holding Chinese stocks, the total holding size of the top 20 heavy positions in Chinese stocks by 22Q2 sample fund companies is 371.5 billion US dollars, which is higher than that of 22Q1 (6.5%QoQ).. Judging from the market distribution of stock positions, the amount of heavy positions held by major overseas mutual fund companies in US stocks / Hong Kong stocks / A shares in the first quarter was US $791.6, respectively, an increase of US $148.3 / 1.6 billion compared with the previous quarter. The local epidemic situation in China was gradually brought under control in the second quarter, with frequent policies such as stable growth and post-epidemic relief, and the market expected that fundamentals would bottom out and rebound, leading to a month-on-month rebound in the allocation of Chinese stocks by major overseas funds. The proportion of heavy holdings in Q2 US stocks increased to 21.3 per cent, while the amount of heavy holdings in A shares and Hong Kong stocks decreased by 0.3/0.2PCTs to 11.1 per cent, respectively, to 67.4 per cent.

Overseas funds comprehensively increase their holdings of Chinese capital stocks and large consumer sectors.

The local epidemic situation in China was gradually brought under control in the second quarter, and the steady growth policy led investors to continue to increase consumption and post-epidemic recovery related sectors, such asThe value of heavy holdings in the optional consumer, required consumer, industrial (transport and automotive) sectors increased significantly by 16.8%, 9.8%, 22.5% to 1,395.4, 208.9 / 7.24 billion US dollars.. The financial (mainly banking) sector, dragged down by property-related risks, lost its holdings, with heavy holdings falling 5.6 per cent to $63.14 billion. In addition, as oil prices peaked and fell, sectors such as upstream energy and raw materials were also reduced by overseas funds, with heavy holdings down 13.5% and 2.0% respectively.At the secondary industry level, large consumer sectors generally increased their holdings, with heavy holdings in auto and auto parts, consumer durables and clothing, consumer services and retail increased by 42.5%, 32.1%, 13.2% and 187.3%, respectively, to 146.2 143.8 / 91.81 billion US dollars.

At the level of individual stocks, the main lines such as post-epidemic recovery, Internet leaders and new energy vehicles are favored, while energy and banking sectors are reduced.

The relaxation of the local epidemic situation in China in the second quarter has significantly increased the allocation of foreign investment, such as social services, transportation and other post-epidemic recovery sectors.$CTG DUTY-FREE (01880.HK)$$H World Group (HTHT.US)$$Yum China (YUMC.US)$The amount of shares held in heavy positions will be increased by 36.4%, 17.2% and 12.4% respectively. In addition, the warming of market sentiment has also led overseas funds to generally increase the allocation of Internet leading enterprises.$JD.com (JD.US)$$Pinduoduo (PDD.US)$$BIDU-SW (09888.HK)$The amount of shares held in heavy positions increased by 26.4%, 67.0% and 118.3% respectively. In addition, the booming new energy car track continues to be favored by overseas funds.$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$$Li Auto-W (02015.HK)$The amount of shares held in heavy positions increased by 77.2% and 316.4% respectively. The peak and decline in oil prices has made overseas investors generally reduce their holdings in energy sector enterprises, such as Petrochina Company Limited, China Petroleum & Chemical Corp and other oil companies. In addition, the banking sector dragged down by real estate-related risks is also generally reduced by overseas funds. China Construction Bank Corporation, China Merchants Bank and Bank of Communications's heavy holdings fell by 17.1%, 14.9% and 11.8% respectively.

In the second quarter, mainstream institutions increased their holdings of leading enterprises of new energy vehicles, and the configuration of the Internet plate was differentiated.

Ten active management funds concerned by the market were selected to explore the changes of their positions in the second quarter. Following the substantial reduction of new energy vehicles by mainstream institutions in the first quarter, they were increased by mainstream institutions in the second quarter.$NIO-SW (09866.HK)$$Li Auto-W (02015.HK)$$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$It has been added by 6, 2 and 1 institution respectively. In Internet enterprises$Alibaba (BABA.US)$$JD.com (JD.US)$$Full Truck Alliance (YMM.US)$It was favored, while KANZHUN LIMITED and iQIYI, Inc. were reduced by more institutions.

Risk factors:The global COVID-19 epidemic spread more than expected; macroeconomic repair was less than expected; Sino-US relations deteriorated; and foreign capital continued to flow out.

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