Guizhou Moutai: liquor leader through the cycle, layout capacity steady growth. Maotai has been on the list of national wine evaluation parties for five times, and it is a well-deserved famous wine brand in China. The demand of super-high-end price segment of Maotai liquor has strong resilience, and consumption scenes such as business banquets and gifts are less sensitive to price. we are actively optimistic that Maotai liquor will continue to rise in volume and price under the background of production expansion.
The China area will contribute to future increments and release capacity at full capacity in 2025. The new production capacity in the old factory area and the Chinese area is 22700 tons and 13952 tons respectively, with a total additional production capacity of 36652 tons. At present, the company's production expansion projects have all been landed, and will not continue to expand in the near future. Maotai base liquor will achieve full capacity release in 2025, the base liquor capacity will reach 56000 tons, corresponding to 45000 tons of Maotai liquor can be put on the market.
Marketing system reform: take the new e-commerce platform as the starting point to achieve volume-price rebalance. In 2022, under the leadership of Chairman Ding Xiongjun, the "I Maotai e-commerce" platform was officially launched, and took the lead in launching treasures such as Maotai, Sheng Xiao Humao, Maotai 1935 and other new products. It is expected that the I Maotai e-commerce platform will become an important grasp and carrier for Maotai to increase the proportion of direct sales, launch new Maotai products and reform the marketing system. From 2022, the revenue of Maotai e-commerce platform will reach 4.6 billion by 7.7. It will become a booster for Maotai to achieve steady growth in the whole year. Under the guidance of the five-line marketing method and the five-line development theory, Maotai continues to start from the supply side, combing the rebalance of quantity and price of Maotai, so as to realize the return of Maotai to the table of consumers.
In the medium term, it will continue to increase around the undeveloped areas, hitting the group's revenue target of 200 billion. With the continuous development of the national macro-level stable growth policy, high-end business activities may usher in a strong recovery, we are firmly optimistic about the value benchmarking of Maotai high-end liquor. In terms of medium-term capacity layout, Maotai will actively increase the undeveloped 7 square kilometers in the future, and the future Maotai incremental quota may continue to thicken its performance through direct marketing channels, I Maotai e-commerce channels, treasures and other high-priced wines. In the long term, under the background of the separation of Xijiu from Maotai Group, Maotai may improve its growth task during the 14th five-year Plan period and achieve the high-quality revenue target of 200 billion of Maotai Group.
Look at the King of value from the perspective of channel reform, covering it for the first time and giving it a "buy" rating. At present, there are many tools for the steady growth of Maotai's performance. The new leadership realizes the sound and rapid development of Maotai from many dimensions, such as rejuvenation, marketing reform, corporate governance and so on. It is estimated that in 2022-2024, the revenue will be 127.98 and 173.03 billion yuan, and the net profit of return to mother will be 624.5 billion yuan, corresponding to the PE level of 37.4 and 31.5 and 27.2X.
Taking into account the imminent expansion of Maotai production, channel reform may be better than expected, and the company enjoys the deterministic premium of high-end liquor growth, it is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: competition in high-end spirits intensifies; channel reform is not as expected; channel sales are not as expected.