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国际货币基金组织财务长论全球经济:形势不错,但仍存在风险

IMF Treasurer on the Global Economy: The situation is good, but there are still risks

富途编译 ·  Apr 23, 2018 17:43

"the situation is good, but there are still risks!" David Lipton, deputy managing director of IMF, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The assessment shows the attitude of IMF and the World Bank to the current economic situation at their spring meeting in Washington. The world economy has picked up slightly since 2011, and people were optimistic about the world economy at the conference despite fears of a resurgence of trade protectionism.

The IMF has maintained its forecast for global economic growth this year and next at around 3.9 per cent of its previous estimate, but still cannot hide its worries. The huge debt crisis has become a ticking time bomb for economic growth, and global economic growth will slow as central banks tighten monetary policy, the effect of fiscal stimulus in the United States fades and China's economic growth continues to slow.

Here are some of the spring meetings in Washington:

1. Dark clouds of trade war

Us Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is considering a meeting with China a few days ago, hoping to reach an agreement on the current increase in tariffs. Us officials attending the spring meeting said they hoped to avoid a large-scale trade war.

A communiqu é issued by the IMF's main advisory board on Saturday showed that there had been a negative attitude towards the global economy within the organization since the IMF's semi-annual meeting last October. Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that business confidence would be hit.

The Philippine budget minister said that although it was not clear how the trade war was going, he believed that the two countries would consider it carefully.

2. The reaction of central banks

Central bankers attending the meeting expressed concern about the trade war between the two countries, and they were more concerned about the impact of the invisible war on their own economic outcomes than the inflation caused by higher tariffs. The governor of the Bank of Colombia said the impact of the trade war would be catastrophic, Paraguay expressed a similar attitude, and Japan's finance minister condemned protectionism.

3. Steady growth

IMF predicts that despite the current poor situation, the world economy will continue to grow in the next two years.

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Photo: international Monetary Fund

4. Financial risk

Although the trade war is currently the highlight of the global economy, the IMF has once again stressed the warning of world financial risks. Over the past six months, world financial markets are likely to intensify volatility, with uncertainties increasing the risk.

In particular, IMF pointed out that the current market may have underestimated the impact of US inflation. Us President Donald Trump is stepping up fiscal stimulus to keep the economy in full employment. Soaring inflation could force the Fed to raise interest rates faster than expected, a move that could lead to turmoil in emerging markets. Global public and private debt has reached a record $164 trillion, the IMF warned. The surge in interest rates will test borrowers' ability to finance debt.

5. the global debt reached a record high of 164 trillion US dollars.

The following picture shows debt growth statistics in various regions of the world:

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Photo: international Monetary Fund

6. Warning from the U.S. Treasury Secretary

At the meeting, the US Treasury Secretary accused the IMF of not playing a role in solving the imbalances in the world economy. IMF officials refuted the claim, pointing out that the Trump administration was acting in the opposite direction. Us Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that compared with 1980 and 1990, global trade imbalances have increased by about 1/3 and show no sign of shrinking. He also said. Countries with "persistent external surpluses" should use their own power to help rebalance world trade, and IMF should also play its role.

Steven Mnuchin believes that the IMF must actively take measures on this issue to help member countries maintain macroeconomic, foreign exchange and trade policy stability, and always pay attention to the global situation so as to maintain fair competition and balanced growth in world trade.

But IMF's sister organization, the World Bank, has benefited from the changes that have come in the United States. The development bank is expected to receive $13 billion in investment after the Trump administration abandons its objections. Under an agreement announced on Saturday, the bank will limit wage growth and gradually cut back on loans to China, meeting long-standing requirements of the United States.

7. Science and technology competition

IMF also debated the issue of market dominance with technology giants such as Amazon.Com Inc, Facebook Inc and Alphabet Inc-CL C at this meeting. This year, IMF will step up its scrutiny of technology companies. Facebook Inc was criticized for leaking user data in 2016 for helping Trump run in the election. At the same time, Trump also condemned Amazon.Com Inc's tax avoidance and postal arrears.

Christine Lagarde said that monopoly oligarchy is not desirable in today's world, affecting the normal operation of the world economy, but has not made any substantial move to break the monopoly of technology giants.

(this article is produced by Futu Information compilation team, compiled / proofread by Wu Nan / Yang Jingzhen)

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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