Focus Today

1. Barclays: forecasts for contraction in major economies in the fourth quarter

2. Guosheng Securities: weak economic recovery is expected, short-term grasp of the band is the main

3. China Merchants: deposit interest rates are lowered, and the pressure on banks' interest rate spreads is alleviated.

4. CITIC: the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is limited, and the price of aluminum is expected to be on the strong side.

5. CICC: optimistic about the high growth of hard carbon market

6. Lyon: still optimistic about the leading shares of Chinese CXO for a long time

7. Guojin Securities: the regulation of second-tier cities continues to be relaxed, and the fundamentals of high-quality leading housing enterprises are expected to improve.

8. Guohai Securities: the high operation of coal prices and the performance of listed companies to improve the certainty or further enhance

9. Bank of America: six existing bookmakers in Macau have an advantage in bidding for new gambling cards. They like Sands China (01928.HK) and Silver Entertainment (00027.HK).

10. Credit Suisse: China International Capital Corporation (03908.HK) share price may fluctuate due to dilution in the short term, but the pullback is to absorb opportunities.

11. Guoxin Securities: maintain the "buy" rating of Li Ning Co. Ltd. (02331.HK) with a reasonable valuation of HK $92-98

12. Haitong: first awarded a "better than the market" rating of 361degree (01361.HK), with a reasonable value of HK $4.33-5.11

Selected viewpoints of research and newspaper

I. Macro-market

• Barclays: forecasts for contraction in major economies in the fourth quarter

Barclays economists said global economic growth was moving towards an "increasingly synchronized downturn", citing the deepening energy crisis in Europe, the COVID-19 epidemic in some regions and tighter financing conditions in many economies. Barclays expects global economic growth to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2023 from 2.8 per cent this year and warns that advanced economies are expected to contract in the fourth quarter and zero growth next year. Barclays said slower global growth would bring the world "close to a global recession", but added that most of the bad news was over. In the Fed's tightening cycle, indicators of US economic strength have sent mixed signals that the US can only "barely" avoid a full-blown recession next year. Barclays expects Europe to fall into recession in the first half of 2023.

• Guosheng Securities: weak economic recovery is expected, short-term grasp of the band is the main

Guosheng Securities said that under the current weak economic recovery, the fundamentals and policies are stable, and the trend of the market for the better has not changed in essence. In the structural market, there is still a high probability of pullback as a whole, but the space is limited, and it is still a good time to consider band low absorption after the pullback is in place. Operationally, at present, the short-term market still needs to be dealt with cautiously, but with the emergence of new main line opportunities driven by events, we can continue to pay attention, especially in the real estate industry where there is a big reversal in policy expectations or further upward expectations.

• China Merchants: deposit interest rates are lowered, and the pressure on banks' interest rate spreads is alleviated.

China Merchants's latest research report said that the reduction in deposit interest rates is conducive to reducing the cost of bank liabilities and favorable to interest spreads. The economy may recover slightly, mainly by quality banks. Continue to push Jiangsu and Zhejiang high-quality banks, strongly prompt Ningbo valuation repair opportunities, and gradually pay attention to China Merchants Bank Ping an, whose valuation has fallen sharply. Real estate policy from city policy to one city, one policy, further relaxed, follow-up real estate sales are expected to gradually improve. This will be good for the banking sector, and retail banking is expected to recover gradually.

II. Industry plate

• CITIC: the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is limited, and the price of aluminum is expected to be on the strong side.

CITIC's latest research report said that the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is limited, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to drop, and the reduction of overseas electrolytic aluminum production continues to expand, which is conducive to the strong operation of aluminum prices. However, the weak operation of downstream consumption and macro factors repeatedly suppress the unilateral rise in aluminum prices. Judging the impact of supply-side disturbances on aluminum prices in the fourth quarter will dominate. Under the expectation that inventories are at historic lows and demand bottoms out, the probability of strong shocks in aluminum prices is higher.

• CICC: optimistic about the high growth of hard carbon market

China International Capital Corporation research newspaper believes that the current lithium resources bottleneck is prominent, to a certain extent restricted the development of lithium power, sodium ion battery industrialization back on the agenda. We believe that compared with lithium battery material system, the bottleneck of negative electrode in sodium battery is more obvious, and hard carbon material is expected to take the lead in the commercial application of sodium negative electrode. We are optimistic about the high growth of the hard carbon market.

• Lyon: still optimistic about the leading shares of Chinese CXO for a long time

Lyon released a report that the White House yesterday (14) announced the US biotechnology and biological manufacturing initiative, will invest 2 billion US dollars in the initiative. The bank still believes that leading Chinese pharmaceutical R & D and production contract outsourcing (CXO) companies, such as Tigermed, Wuxi Apptec and Wuxi Biologics, are more likely to do better throughout the cycle. Mr Lyon argues that the return of the US pharmaceutical supply chain depends on whether US government financial support can cover additional manufacturing costs (especially given the rise in inflation in the US since the start of the year). Given current market sentiment, the impact of news, capital flows and US interest rate hikes is likely to continue to outweigh fundamentals. But in the long run, the bank remains bullish on leading Chinese CXO participants.

• Guojin Securities: the regulation of second-tier cities continues to be relaxed, and the fundamentals of high-quality leading housing enterprises are expected to improve.

The latest research report of Guojin Securities said that the loosening of real estate policy has been made clear, and the core of this round of market comes from the improvement of the fundamentals of high-quality leading housing enterprises and the continuous relaxation of superimposed policies. The first to actively layout the core plate of key cities, mainly improve the products of housing enterprises, such as Greentown China, Jianfa International Group, Binjiang Group and so on. Prudently choose to recommend head state-owned enterprises with healthy financial structure and safe cash flow, such as Poly Development and China Overseas Land & Investment.

• Guohai Securities: the high operation of coal prices and the performance of listed companies to improve the certainty or further enhance

Guohai Securities said that the release of demand for coal storage in winter, while Jinjiu Silver 10 catalytic coking coal demand improved during the peak season, coal prices have continued to rise. In the first half of this year, the coal price center moved up, the profits of listed companies climbed to new highs, and the industry boom continued to verify. In the fourth quarter, La Nina phenomenon led to colder winter, superimposed European natural gas crisis and the restart of coal power installation and other factors, the high operation of coal prices and the performance of listed companies towards better certainty or further enhanced.

III. Individual stocks

• Bank of America: six existing bookmakers in Macao have advantages in bidding for new gambling cards.$SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK)$及$GALAXY ENT (00027.HK)$

In a report, BofA Securities said it believed that the Macao government would announce the winning results of the betting licence in October and finalize the terms with the new franchisee in November so that they could start operating under the new terms from January next year. The bank pointed out that since the existing six operators have invested US $4.5 billion to US $15 billion each in Macau over the past 20 years and are Macau's largest employers, it believes that the six bookmakers have an advantage in bidding for new gambling cards. Overall, we maintain a constructive view on Hao betting stocks, believing that the current price of shares only reflects the slow and moderate recovery of the industry next year, preferring Sands China (01928.HK) and Silver Entertainment (00027.HK).

• Credit Suisse:$China International Capital Corporation (03908.HK)$Stock prices may fluctuate due to dilution in the short term, but the pullback is to absorb opportunities

Credit Suisse published a report that 03908.HK announced a plan to recommend that An and H simultaneous rights issue not exceed 1.45 billion shares and raise up to RMB 27 billion, even if the company's adjusted leverage level is 6.6x, close to the regulatory limit, but the market is not surprised. Credit Suisse said CICC shares could fluctuate in the short term due to dilution, but saw any potential correction as an absorption opportunity and maintained its target price of 22 yuan and a "buy" rating.

• Guoxin Securities: maintain$LI NING (02331.HK)$"Buy" rating with a reasonable valuation of HK $92-98

Guoxin Securities released a research report saying that to maintain Li Ning Co. Ltd. 's (02331) "buy" rating, it is expected that income will maintain a growth rate of 20% in the next three years, and the net interest rate will rise steadily to more than 18%. The net profit for 2022-24 is forecast to be 49.2 shock 61 / 7.5 billion yuan (an increase of 22.6% over the same period last year), with a reasonable valuation range of HK $92-98. With years of brand and product accumulation, the company is breaking the monopoly pattern of international competitive products on the middle and high-end sports market. With the expansion of the booming Chinese sports shoes and clothing market, its share expansion is accompanied by a rise in volume and price, which will achieve high-quality and rapid growth. The bank expects Li Ning Co. Ltd. to achieve a compound growth rate of 20 per cent and a market share of about 12 per cent in the next five years.

• Haitong: the first$361 DEGREES (01361.HK)$"better than the market" rating with a reasonable value of HK $4.33-5.11

Haitong released a research report that the first 361 degrees (01361) "better than the market" rating, estimated total operating income in 2022-24 69.57pm 79.72 / 9.037 billion yuan, return to the mother net profit of 7gamma 8.07 / 916 million yuan, reasonable value range of 4.33-5.11 Hong Kong dollars. In 2017-21, the company's revenue CAGR reached 3.6%, net profit CAGR reached 7.1%, and the overall profit growth rate was higher than income. In 2021, the main business income was 5.93 billion yuan, and the net profit increased by 45% compared with the same period last year. The financial expenses dropped sharply, mainly due to the redemption of all priority unsecured dollar bills last year.