The company disclosed the signing of a major contract announcement, and is expected to sell 70,000 tons of high-purity silicon raw materials to Trina Solar from 2023 to 2026. If calculated according to the current market price (based on the latest average price of polysilicon announced by PV InfoLink), the total sales volume is expected to reach 21.21 billion yuan (including tax).
Comments:
The glass industry as a whole is under pressure, and engineering glass is rising against the trend. 2022H1, the company's glass industry achieved revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, with a decrease of 17.26%, of which float glass was affected by the slowdown in real estate demand and the rise in raw fuel prices, income decreased by 20.66% and net profit decreased by 64.34%; photovoltaic glass was affected by the upgrading of Dongguan company's production line, income decreased by 43.66%, and net profit decreased by 101.18% Under fine management, engineering glass rose against the trend, with revenue increasing by 1.11% and net profit by 216.17%.
Benefiting from the high magnificence of polysilicon, the growth rate of solar energy business is gratifying. Against the backdrop of strong photovoltaic demand, photovoltaic grade polysilicon was quoted at 37.39US dollars / kg in 2022-9-7, up 246.52% from 2021-1-6, with strong profitability. Against this background, thanks to the success of polysilicon wafers in seizing the Indian market, and the initial results of transforming monocrystalline silicon wafers and purifying monocrystalline materials for ingots, the company's 2022H1 solar energy and other businesses achieved revenue of 1.434 billion yuan and net profit of 282 million yuan, a substantial increase over the same period last year.
The process of high purity silicon is continuously optimized, and the double sales path reduces the operating risk. At present, the company's high-purity silicon adopts strategic cooperation with competitors in the lower reaches of the industrial chain to sign long orders and flexible sales to reduce operational risk. At the same time, the company continues to optimize the process in production, continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, production capacity to break through the record high, while silicon consumption, comprehensive electricity consumption, steam consumption and so on have all created a record low. After resumption of production, high-purity silicon quickly entered the industry by relying on product quality and market reputation. Electronic-grade high-purity silicon densifier has met the requirements of N-type battery customers, and the market competitiveness is prominent.
Qinghai 50,000 tons of high-purity silicon project is in progress, long single match the corresponding production capacity. At present, the 50,000-ton high-purity silicon project in Qinghai has completed site selection analysis, technical scheme, organizational staffing, schedule planning, investment estimation, financial evaluation, etc., and has initially completed the top-level design. The long-term major contract signed with Trina Solar will lock in the sales path of some products, which will help the corresponding production capacity to land as soon as possible.
Maintain a "buy" rating. We believe that the performance elasticity brought by the crystal silicon business is expected to lead the company out of the real estate regulation cycle. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 is 0.54, 0.60, 0.68 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 12.72, 11.52, 10.12 times.
Risk hint: glass prices drop, production capacity falls short of expectations, performance and valuation fall short of expectations