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瑞丰转债(123126)投资价值分析

Investment value analysis of Ruifeng Convertible Bonds (123126)

申萬宏源研究 ·  Sep 8, 2021 00:00  · Researches

Investment tips for this issue:

Conclusions or investment suggestions: At the current market valuation level, there is little chance that Ruifeng's convertible bonds will break. Investors are advised to participate in the subscription and placement.

Reason and logic:

1. The coupon interest rate is low, the compensation interest is very high, and the value of pure debt is also low. Based on the 9.09% discount rate, the partial value of the pure debt is $78.08.

2. The dilution pressure on the total share capital of A shares to be converted to Ruifeng was 8.22%, and the dilution pressure on the tradable share capital was 10.11%. The dilution pressure on the tradable share capital was low.

3. As of the announcement date of this prospectus, the controlling shareholder Zhou Shibin has pledged a total of 22.1653 million shares, accounting for 42.83% of its shares and 9.54% of the company's total share capital.

4. As of June 30, 2021, the company's goodwill was $15 million, the same as at the end of 2020, accounting for 1.88% of net assets.

5. The current annualized volatility of Ruifeng High Materials is about 61.85%. The long-term 240-day annualized historical volatility is around 49.73%, and the volatility is at a high level among convertible stocks. The 20-day annualized volatility was 57.23%, which is above the historical average (48.38%).

6. When the stock price of Ruifeng High Materials is 18.5 yuan, the conversion value is 103.93 yuan, and the corresponding conversion price is 120.18 yuan to 120.30 yuan. When Ruifeng High Materials's stock price is 14.5 yuan to 23.3 yuan, the market position of the corresponding debt conversion market is about 110 yuan to 137 yuan.

7. At the current market valuation level, there is little chance that Ruifeng's debt will break.

8. Assuming that the first-day increase in debt conversion was 20%, the placement income per share was about 0.29 yuan, and the placement was participated at a share price cost of 18.5 yuan. The comprehensive placement revenue was 1.47%, and the placement income was low.

9. A rough estimate of the remaining subscription amount is 210 million yuan to 290 million yuan. The subscription capital ranges from $9.8 trillion to $10.2 trillion. The winning rate is estimated to range from 0.0020% to 0.0030%. When Ruifeng's total nominal subscription capital was 10 trillion yuan and the remaining purchasable amount was 240 million yuan, the winning rate was 0.0024%. When the increase on the first day was 20%, the expected income from the online subscription of investors who were full was 5 yuan.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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