According to the company announcement, 92.574 million mobile phone lenses were shipped in August 2022,-26.2% year-on-year, 7.044 million car lenses, + 29.0% year-on-year, and 38.717 million mobile camera modules,-30.0%.
In the short term, the inventory of mobile phone terminals is still on the high side, and the demand for spare parts is relatively weak. The shipments of the company's mobile phone lenses and modules are lower than the same period last year, and the month-on-month ratio has improved.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, the company is expected to increase its share of large clients in North America or contribute to the marginal increment of mobile phone business, but changes in the industry pattern may lead to fluctuations in the ASP of some products, which we will continue to track. In the medium and long term, as the company's business extends from mobile phones to cars and ARVR, we are still optimistic about the company's strategic layout and market positioning, maintaining the company's EPS forecast of HK $3.53, 4.48 and 5.66 in 2022-23-24, and maintaining the "buy" rating.
The company shipped 92.574 million mobile phone lenses in August,-26.2% from the same period last year, and + 3.9% from January to August. The total number of mobile phone lenses shipped from January to August was-12.0%. In the 2022 results exchange meeting (the same below), the company pointed out that mobile phone lens shipments are expected to drop by about 15% in 2022 compared with the same period last year. The company's August mobile phone lens shipments year-on-year-26.2% Jan-August cumulative shipments-12.0% year-on-year, mainly due to the current high inventory of smartphone terminals and weak demand for parts. Month-on-month growth is mainly due to the growing momentum of key customers' new projects.
Looking forward to the follow-up, in the short term, the mobile phone terminal is still in the de-inventory stage, and the demand for spare parts in the third quarter remains to be followed up, but in the second half of the year, as the mobile phone terminal goes to inventory and the brand customer pulls the goods, the company's lens shipments may be low in the front and high in the back. In the medium to long term, the carrying capacity of mobile cameras is expected to remain stable, but the upgrade of optical specifications will drive the demand for high-end lenses; on the other hand, changes in the lens industry may lead to fluctuations in the ASP of some products, which we will continue to track.
The company shipped 7.044 million car lenses in August, + 29.0% from the same period last year, and + 9.4% from January to August, with a total of 51.1 million pieces shipped from January to August, + 6.7% from the same period last year. The company expects shipments of in-car lenses to grow by 10% in 2022 compared with the same period last year. The company's August car lens shipments were + 29.0% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the lack of key parts in the automobile supply chain last year, resulting in a low base in the same period. The company's car lens shipments were + 9.4% month-on-month in August, which we believe is mainly due to a pick-up in terminal car consumption due to the weakening of the epidemic (according to the Federation of passengers, sales in the domestic narrow-sense passenger car market reached 1.871 million in August, + 28.8% compared with the same period last year. + 2.9%).
In the long run, the new forces of car building drive the volume and price of car lenses to rise obviously. The company has ploughed deeply into the automotive field for more than 20 years, leading the share in the field of car lenses, supplying traditional car companies such as BBA, as well as ideal, XPeng Inc. and other new forces car companies, in addition, the company continues to upgrade car products, 8 million pixels car camera module has been completed research and development, and is expected to continue to benefit from the trend of self-driving acceleration infiltration of camera specifications upgrading.
The company shipped 38.717 million mobile phone CCM units in August,-30% compared with the same period last year, and a total of 364 million mobile phone shipments from January to August, compared with the same period last year, compared with the previous year. The company expects shipments of mobile cameras to fall by about 20% year-on-year in 2022. Company's August CCM shipments year-on-year-30.0% Jan-August cumulative shipments-22.8% year-on-year, mainly due to weak demand in the overall smartphone market at this stage. In the short term, Android mobile terminals are still in the de-inventory stage, and the company's module demand in the third quarter still needs further observation. In the long run, the company's downstream Android customers are fully covered, and gradually expand production for South Korean customers. With the construction of factories in Vietnam and India, the company is expected to become the head supplier of Korean customer modules, and the company is active in high-end modules such as potential, 3D, etc., it is expected to improve the module ASP and optimize the product structure.
Risk factors: continuous shortage of supply chain; repeated overseas epidemics; slow penetration of multi-photo / 3D Sensing/ latent vision; less than expected intelligent driving; downward gross profit margin of company modules; short-term pressure on sales of major customers; increased competition in the industry.
Investment suggestion: the company is the optical leader of Chinese mainland. Under the medium-and long-term auto-driving acceleration penetration trend, the in-vehicle business is expected to drive revenue growth, and the long-term growth logic of 3D/ and other business is clear. We maintain the company's annual EPS forecast of HK $5.66 for 2022-23-24, with reference to 36 times the company's PE-Band pivot over the past five years, and give 35 times the 2022 target PE, corresponding to the target price of HK $123, maintaining a "buy" rating.