The company's 22H1 income is 690 million yuan (+ 25.5%), the return net profit is 32 million yuan (- 56.1%), and the non-return net profit is 8 million yuan (- 87.9%). 22H1 is affected by the local epidemic control in China, and the company's performance has declined. Based on the company's sound underlying technical layout in the logistics automation industry, as well as strong business development capabilities, we are still optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The epidemic put pressure on the company's 22H1 performance. (1) single 22Q2 revenue and profit: the company's income and return net profit in a single quarter were 610 million yuan and 43 million yuan respectively, which were + 63.3% and-12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year. (2) Gross profit margin: 22H1's overall gross profit margin is 19.2% (year-on-year-15.2pcts), 22Q2 single-quarter gross profit margin is 20.0% (year-on-year, month-on-quarter-12.5pcts, + 7.5pcts, respectively). As the company's business recovers from the epidemic, the gross profit margin increases greatly compared with the previous year. (3) expenses: 22H1, the company's sales, management and R & D expenses reached 27 million, 28 million and 65 million yuan respectively, which were + 46.7%, + 46.7% and + 25.4% respectively compared with the same period last year, and the three expense rates were 4.0%, 13.6% and 9.5% respectively. The overall expense rate remained stable compared with 21H1. (4) Cash flow: the cash flow of the company is good, the cash inflow of 22H1 operating activities is + 5.1% compared with the same period last year, and the index of "cash / operating income received from the sale of goods and services" is 133.6% (20H1 and 21H1 are 167.4% and 159.5%, respectively).
The underlying core technology to build a strong moat, business development to ensure the steady growth of the company. (1) order on hand:
In the field of sorting, the company's customers include ZTO Express, Shunfeng, Polar Rabbit, China Post, JD.com and other major domestic express, logistics and e-commerce enterprises. As of 22H1, the total contract amount of the company's on-hand orders is about 2.48 billion yuan, and the proportion of the contract amount of the top five customers is 33.0%, 11.1%, 10.3%, 5.2%, 4.2%, respectively, and the customer concentration is gradually decreasing. The contract amount of orders-on-hand accounts for 81.4% of the domestic market and 18.6% of the overseas market. New business areas, as of 22H1, the company's intelligent warehousing orders of about 96.67 million yuan, airport baggage sorting orders of about 20.7 million yuan, the new business market expansion is relatively smooth. (2) R & D Prospect: 22H1, the company further increases its R & D investment in key common technology platforms, core components and application scenarios, and has a large layout in electric drum, industrial bar code / QR code recognition, volume measurement, 2D/3D visual guidance and positioning, etc. In terms of electric drum, the company's R & D team has effectively solved the technical problems of high power density, high efficiency motor, integrated transmission, sealed heat dissipation and so on. at present, the electric drum product line has been serialized. In terms of visual products, the company uses self-developed smart cameras to closely combine AI depth learning algorithm with traditional image algorithms to achieve a variety of applications of visual products. (3) Business Prospect: 22H1, the company further improves the product line of intelligent logistics equipment. Under the background of the replacement of machines in the express logistics industry, it is expected that express delivery enterprises will still be in the period of input of automation equipment in the next three years. As the leader of the sorting system industry, the company is actively expanding production to enjoy the high prosperity of the industry development. In addition, the company is laying out airport logistics, intelligent warehousing, upstream core components and other areas, gradually opening up the whole industry chain of intelligent logistics equipment.
Risk factors: (1) the risk of a decline in customer purchases of logistics sorting systems under the influence of the epidemic; (2) the risk of intensified competition in the industry, leading to a decline in gross profit margin; and (3) the risk that the company's layout of airport logistics, intelligent warehousing systems and other new business progress is not as expected. (4) the R & D progress of the core components business is not as high as expected.
Investment suggestion: combined with the China report data, we downgrade the company's 23-year homing net profit forecast to 220 million / 300 million yuan (original forecast is 320 million / 420 million yuan), and supplement the 2024 homing net profit forecast of 420 million yuan. The current share price trades at 24-18-13 times the annual PE of 2022-23-24. Based on the company's sound underlying technical layout in the logistics automation industry, as well as strong business development capabilities, we are still optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential. Maintain a "buy" rating.
