Refined from Guohai Securities: "the development of the speed shift industry from quantity to quality, looking at the growth of parts and components subdivision leader-- Automotive Industry Strategy for 2019"
In the current economic downturn, the automobile industry bears the brunt. If there is no improvement in November-December, overall sales growth this year will slow compared with the same period last year, and dealer inventories will remain high.This will be the first year-on-year decline in sales since 2000!It should be said that the market is very pessimistic about the future of the auto industry (with the exception of the new energy vehicle branch, as new energy vehicle sales are still growing sharply compared with the same period last year), so the market gave the lowest valuation in the history of the sector.
1. Passenger cars: the car market growth rate shift superimposed stock ratio liberalization background, market competition makes independent brands multi-level differentiation
Car sales totaled 22.8709 million from January to October 2018, down 0.1 per cent from a year earlier.Since 2000, China's automobile market has experienced a period of rapid growth for as long as a decade, but the industry growth center has gradually moved down after the withdrawal of the small-engine car purchase tax preference in 2011.The compound growth rate dropped from 24.1% between 2000 and 2010 to 6.9% between 2010 and 2017, and the industry entered a growth shift period.
The fully liberalized market competition will force the rise of independent and strong main car enterprises.In the future, the opening up of stock ratio will enable foreign investors to further put technology and models in China, which is a catalyst for the development of the whole industry.In the long run, brand upward is a powerful weapon to meet the challenge of foreign investment, and is optimistic about the improvement of market concentration of independent leading car enterprises.
two。 Parts and components: under the background of technology upgrading route, the rise of the leader in the subdivision field.
In the first three quarters of 2018, the operating income of listed companies in Shenwan auto parts plate totaled 542.172 billion yuan, + 13.4% compared with the same period last year; the total net profit of shareholders belonging to listed companies totaled 36.099 billion yuan, + 11.5% compared with the same period last year.The auto parts sector leads the industry in terms of revenue and profits, mainly because of the growing substitution effect in domestic and overseas markets.
The autonomy of the core technology of China's automobile industry is relatively low.Most of the products are concentrated in some labor-intensive industries, and the barriers to entry are relatively low. In the context of future technology upgrading, the leader in the field of parts subdivision will continue to maintain a level of development that exceeds the growth rate of the industry, and the growth remains the same.
At present, independent parts manufacturers mainly choose two routes.One is to rely on independent research and development and self-iteration.Continue to extend from the existing technologyThe other is to realize the introduction of technology through mergers and acquisitions of overseas high-quality targets.Representatives of independent research and development are Xingyu shares, Ningbo Gaofa, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, etc., and representatives of overseas mergers and acquisitions are China Ding shares.
1) headlights: headlights continue to upgrade, LED and intelligent headlights will become the mainstream. Representative enterprise: Xingyu Co., Ltd.
2) variable speed manipulator: it is upgraded from manual to automatic, and the electronic shift will become a new development trend in the future. On behalf of the enterprise: Ningbo Gaofa.
3) Automotive glass: the application space of high value-added products is large, and the unit price of automotive glass per unit area shows an upward trend. Representative enterprise: Fuyao Glass Industry Group.
4) non-tire rubber parts: Zhongding Co., Ltd. is currently the leader in the domestic non-tire rubber products industry, introducing advanced technology and technology from Europe and the United States through overseas mergers and acquisitions to create a top enterprise in many subdivision fields of non-tire rubber products. In the non-tire rubber products "cooling system", "noise reduction chassis system", "sealing system" three major fields to determine the leading position.
3. New energy: automobile enterprises accelerate the layout of electrification, fully benefit from the thermal management of new energy.
In the domestic market, the trend of continuous decline of subsidy policy will not change, and the intensity of local subsidies is also declining.The implementation of new energy vehicle integral accounting in 2019 will further promote the marketization of new energy vehicle industry.Under the pressure of double points, joint venture car companies have increased their investment in China's new energy industry and set up joint ventures with independent car companies to introduce new energy models.
In overseas markets, Tesla, Inc. made a profit in a single quarter in 2018Q3 by virtue of the production capacity of Model 3, and its model sales have caught up with brands such as BBA in the US market.The strong trend of new energy car companies and the trend of electrification have prompted the mainstream traditional car companies to transform one after another.
As far as automobile enterprises are concerned, the full competition of joint ventures, autonomy and new car-building forces makes new energy vehicles enter the stage of market clearing, and only the car companies with product technology first, strong scale effect and high brand premium ability will survive.Therefore, the leading effect will be strengthened.For parts manufacturersThe new energy auto parts industry will fully benefit, as an incremental market, new energy thermal management will usher in rapid development, and the performance will grow faster under the strong order cycle.