Core viewpoints
The company is a leading enterprise of automobile metal lightweight and navigable aircraft "twin engines". Since its establishment in 2001, the company has continuously expanded its business width through "endogenous epitaxy". A "twin-engine" development pattern of navigable aircraft manufacturing has been formed with "aluminum alloy-magnesium alloy-high strength steel" as the main line of automotive metal lightweight and independent research and development, design, manufacturing, sales and service. In 2021, the company's aircraft business income reached 1.8 billion yuan, accounting for 14.49%. The injection of aircraft business is expected to bring performance breakthroughs for the company, and the "twin-engine"-driven development pattern has initially taken shape. At present, the company's revenue is balanced in domestic and foreign markets, the operation has a very strong resilience, and various businesses maintain a leading position in the industry.
Seize the opportunity of the development of new energy vehicles, with aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy as the support focus on the layout of lightweight business. In the aspect of magnesium alloy, after the acquisition of magnesium reading, the company continues to improve the technical level and expand the product matrix on the original basis. With highly competitive products, the company accounts for 65% of the automotive magnesium alloy market in North America and 40% in the world, and is the global leader in magnesium alloy die casting.
In terms of aluminum alloy, the company started with automotive aluminum alloy wheel business, with profound technology and brand accumulation, the company's customers are long-term and stable. In 2021, the company's sales revenue of lightweight metal parts reached 10.634 billion yuan, an increase of 17.26% over the same period last year. In the future, the company is expected to take advantage of the rapid development of new energy vehicles and the growing demand for lightweight vehicles, with its own leading technology and customer resources, further performance breakthroughs.
The domestic navigable aircraft market is huge, and the "twin-engine" layout helps the company to open up new growth points. China's navigable aircraft industry is still in its infancy. With the gradual improvement of domestic infrastructure and the continuous introduction of relevant development plans, the market scale is expected to continue to expand. According to the China Aviation Industry Development Research Center, the average annual growth rate of China's navigation market will reach 13.1% in the next five years.
The company has made continuous breakthroughs in technology, research and development and products, and shipped a total of 240 aircraft in 2021, ranking third in the industry. The net profit of aircraft business deducted from non-return in 2021 reached 3.30 / 315 million yuan respectively, which exceeded the performance promise. At present, the company actively arranges the domestic production base and steadily expands the foreign market, and the navigable aircraft business is expected to become the company's new growth curve.
Investment suggestion
It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2022 to 2024 is 14.603, 172.33 and 20.480 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit returned to its mother is 1.150 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS from 2022 to 2024 is 0.33, 0.41 and 0.53 yuan per share. Based on the closing price of 6.12 yuan on September 7, 2022, the corresponding PE is 18.54, 14.78, 11.64 times, covering for the first time, and given a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
Macroeconomic fluctuations; raw material price fluctuations; international trade and exchange rate fluctuations; policy landing is not as expected.